Tropical Storm Dorian Update

Tropical Storm Dorian Update

Written on 08/27/2019
Jonathan Carr

Dorian is a tropical storm that has entered the E Caribbean Sea. It will turn to the N and head towards the central E Florida coast. It must contend with dry air between its current location and Purto Rico as well as wind shear from the dipping upper-level jet to its N. There will be some land to deal with but likely not the elevations of Hispaniola. The dry air, shear and land will likely prevent any sort of rapid development. Whether Dorian becomes a weak cat 1 hurricane or remains a tropical storm over the next few days is uncertain but should the storm make it through these hurdles it could then sustain and/or strengthen some. The Bahamas are warm with lower shear. High pressure, establishing over the E US, will prevent a track up the coast. Therefore New Jersey should see zero impact from Dorian. Chances of a central E Florida landfall are increasing in the ~Sunday-Labor Day period. As of right now it would seem a solid tropical storm or weak hurricane would be the expected landfall intensity. Be safe! JC

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