Lake effect snow showers and squalls are moving through with the strong NW flow. Can cause temporary visibility problems and even lay trace/light accumulations down. Should clear this evening and then a cold overnight expected. Be safe! JC
We're now entering a lull in precipitation as the warm front and former primary surface low decay (about halfway through Phase 2). The coastal low is spawning off Atlantic City and by tomorrow morning will rip the flow completely out of the N. This will bring the cold air back southward (over NJ) and change precip to snow from N to S. Most precip should be over to snow by noon (Phase 3 begins)...earlier the further N you are. Then it's all about who sees the strongest meso banding through tomorrow afternoon and evening hours. No changes to our forecast as of right now. Let's see how we look in the morning. Have a great night and be safe! JC
Wintry precipitation continues for areas N of I-78 (for NWNJ) N of I-80 (for NENJ). This line should slow its advancement northward later tonight and start to crash southward by tomorrow morning. Full details coming in the 5pm final snow map article. Be safe! JC
Phase 1 is underway. Mixed wintry precip is moving into areas NW of the Turnpike (I-95). Just cold rain along and SE of such. Be safe! JC
Sleet is being reported slightly S of I-80. This afternoon-forward definitely had a "colder than it should be" feel to it. With that said let's allow a wintry mix to continue as far S as I-78 and as far E as I-287. The surface is still above freezing for most areas so little to no accumulations are expected. The higher NWNJ elevations have the best chance for wintry precipitation to affect the surface. Precip should end by early tomorrow afternoon. Some of the wraparound back-side precipitation could be wintry between Sunday late-morning and afternoon. When winds become N/NE that will queue the temp crash. I'll be tracking tomorrow. Be safe! JC
Rain is changing over to snow from NW to SE as the Arctic cold (blue arrows) moves in. Precipitation is sliding from SW to NE (white arrow). It's a race between back-edge of precip and cold air. Whether or not you end as light snow, a mix or just rain is just conversational. The true weather safety issues are flash freezing (wet surfaces fail to evaporate before freezing) and the dangerous cold that will ensue behind this precipitation. It's simple. If you air temperatures are 32F or below and the surface (road, sidewalk, etc.) looks wet...treat it as frozen/slick. Take winterization-like precautions for the next few days. Disconnect your hoses, trickle your sinks if they normally freeze, etc. Check on your elders and disabled. Don't let your pets out for long. Stay warm and be safe! JC
So far things are going as expected. Rain light so far although some heavier stuff slowly rotating in from the NE (and I mean very slowly moving). Not a big deal away from the ocean. NW winds are rocking along the coast and should continue to build through tomorrow. Coastal flooding remains the highest concern especially for the Thursday PM and Friday AM high tides. Water levels should be up today and then start subsiding Friday evening throught the weekend. With the full moon Sunday an expected delay in tide level moderation could occur but not above minor flood planes. Be safe! JC
WInds are already gusting 20-30mph up and down the NJ coast. 36mph in Atlantic City. It's going to be a long 3-4 days for immediate coastal areas. Worst of the coastal flooding is expected between Wednesday night and Friday morning. The second PM high tide on Thursday is the highest expected total storm tide level. Be safe! JC
Tropical Depression 10 has formed and will become Jerry once named. It would have been Imelda but the W Gulf of Mexico took Imelda today. Jerry is currently modeled to re-curve out to sea near Bermuda but worth casually monitoring in the near-future for any changes. I'll discuss this more in the weekend outlook Thursday evening. Humberto continues to throw nasty rip currents along the coast so please be cautious if swimming. Be safe! JC
You can see the two warm sector flows (associated with their own low center) that are directing the warmer temperatures ultimately from TX/NM into the Mid-Atlantic US. This will keep us warm and humid today and tomorrow. Today looks dry across NJ but tomorrow could feature showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves from N/NW to S/SE. Friday we moderate cooler and more comfortable as high pressure moves in but kicks in an onshore flow. Pattern looks erratic as we could wash rinese and repeat again Saturday through early next week. I'll discuss this in much further detail tomorrow night in the weekend outlook. Then another cold and dry shot is expected to move in later next week. The upper-level energy associated with that trough will then either kick out or interact with whatever comes out of the tropics (if Invest 94L holds it together). Be safe! JC
Rain with embedded boomers are pushing across NNJ/CNJ. Once this batch moves through more are possible later today for entire state. Should all clear to the E by tonight.
Onshore flow should influence much of the Garden State today with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s (close to ocean temps). Only the interior areas of CNJ/SNJ should reach near-80 or break just into the lower-80s. The high pressure providing said onshore flow should hold off showers until later tonight/overnight. Thererfore we should squeeze out an ok day today. Tomorrow should feature a mix of sun and clouds statewide with showers and thunderstorms around but far from a washout. I'll have the full Monday-Friday outlook posted this evening. Have a great day and please be safe! JC
Some outer fringe banding from Tropical Storm Erin continues to move northward along coastal Ocean and Monmouth Counties. Once this pushes up and out there is more rain approaching from the W. This rain/energy seems like it's fizzling so no thunderstorm concerns. It should all push through and start a stretch of amazing late-summer weather from tomorrow through at least part of Sunday. I'm still watching the Sunday PM-Monday period for rain. The weekend outlook will go into detail about this tomorrow evening. Have a great rest of your day and please be safe! JC
Light rain is approaching from the W. Onshore flow should continue today and keep it cloudy as the precipitation fizzles through. E NJ coasts are subject to enhanced rip currents from the departing Tropical Depression Six (upgraded from Invest 98L). Be safe! JC
Dorian is a tropical storm that has entered the E Caribbean Sea. It will turn to the N and head towards the central E Florida coast. It must contend with dry air between its current location and Purto Rico as well as wind shear from the dipping upper-level jet to its N. There will be some land to deal with but likely not the elevations of Hispaniola. The dry air, shear and land will likely prevent any sort of rapid development. Whether Dorian becomes a weak cat 1 hurricane or remains a tropical storm over the next few days is uncertain but should the storm make it through these hurdles it could then sustain and/or strengthen some. The Bahamas are warm with lower shear. High pressure, establishing over the E US, will prevent a track up the coast. Therefore New Jersey should see zero impact from Dorian. Chances of a central E Florida landfall are increasing in the ~Sunday-Labor Day period. As of right now it would seem a solid tropical storm or weak hurricane would be the…
Positioning of high pressure to our N and low pressure to our S (Invest 98L's remnants) is forcing a tight pressure gradient for NJ latitude. This is resulting in moderate onshore flow which can lead to minor coastal flooding and increased rip currents along the surf. This image shows 10m surface winds for overnight tonight. Please swim with caution and obey all life guards. Be safe! JC
The latest tropical spaghetti (all tropical model storm paths on a single map) has indicated a shift northward. This would mean less interaction with N/E Caribbean land and more of a chance to strengthen while approaching the SE Florida coast. Something Floridians are going to have to watch. Be safe! JC
Hello! My name is Jonathan Carr, founder, operator and lead forecaster of Weather NJ. I graduated with a bachelor’s degree in computer science and a master’s degree in information systems. My primary career is in software development (augmented and virtual reality) and information technology. I do not have a formal education in meteorology which I wear proudly on my sleeve. For that reason, instead of calling myself a meteorologist, I prefer “weather enthusiast” or “weather forecaster” out of respect to the professionally-degreed and accredited meteorological community.
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