Crappy at Times

Written on 10/24/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: Overnight lows should fall and then halt tonight (Sunday night) as S flow takes over. This could initially present some fog but otherwise should produce a milder feel for tomorrow (Monday). We’re going to see two areas of upper-level low pressure this week, both amplified by upper jet streaks at times. Accordingly, we’ll see two stringer synoptic rain systems at the lower levels. The first is for this Monday PM through Tuesday and the second surrounds Friday. The first (Mon PM-Tues) involves two phasing waves into a negative swinging trough formation. It looks like the full phase will occur in time for coastal New England to experience a powerful storm. New Jersey, however, will likely experience just moderate rain and wind during the formation of the system and then windier conditions out of the N on the back (west) side of the cyclonic flow. Again, that would be Monday night through most of Tuesday with conditions tapering/subsiding by daybreak on Wednesday. Monday daytime should be a slow cloudy build with first drops likely falling by sunset. We should then see a break with a traditional fall feel for the second half of Wednesday and Thursday. Clouds should increase Thursday night as well as winds as the second system approaches. Friday looks the wettest with a slug of rainfall expected to pass through NJ from SW to NE (on the NE side of the cyclonic circulation). Once the main batch of heavy rainfall moves through on Friday, the upper-level low keeps NJ unsettled through most of Saturday (on-and-off scattered showers) but then offers improvement for Sunday (Halloween). Most rainfall should be ending by daybreak Sunday, if not earlier Saturday. Long-range analysis indicates a shift into a higher gear of cold around the Nov 3 (next Wednesday) period.

Monday (Oct 25) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas. Skies should increase in cloudiness through morning and afternoon hours. Fog is possible. Periods of rainfall are possible as early as afternoon but likely by evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to near-60 statewide.

Tuesday (Oct 26) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rainfall. Winds should be breezy/gusty out of the N/NW with highest wind speeds likely clocking along the ocean-facing coasts of ECNJ/SENJ. A period of E/NE or NE flow is expected on Tuesday which could produce coastal flooding. Rain and wind could persist overnight as temps fall to near-50.

Wednesday (Oct 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should remain mostly cloudy to start with periods of rain possible through daybreak. Conditions should then improve throughout the day. Winds should remain breezy out of the N. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most as rain fully tapers off and winds subside.

Thursday (Oct 28) high temperatures should struggle to escape the lower-60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as clouds increase and winds pick up.

Friday (Oct 29) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from N to S. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a period of moderate-to-heavy rainfall expected. Winds should be breezy/gusty out of the E/NE with more coastal flooding possible. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 50s for most areas.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder temperatures but generally unsettled behind the departing Friday system. A slow and gradual tapering of on-and-off showers through Saturday and possibly into Sunday morning. As of right now, trick-or-treat hours would look okay with rain chances likely ending by Sunday morning, if not Saturday night. I’ll be following the Halloween weekend situation up throughout this week.

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