Is October the New September?

Written on 10/04/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: It sure seems like it anymore. And the same goes for September feeling like August. In recent times, it seems like summer’s heat and humidity have bleed into early fall. The crisp feel will inevitably come back but it seems as if it should already be sustained by now. It seems like most, who have been around to see summers in the 1960s, will tell you that winters used to be much colder: “I remember when people used to drive from Manahawkin to LBI on the ice.” I’m not trying to start a climate change war here. I’m simply pointing out observations growing up in New Jersey. Have any of you noticed the same? The tornado frequency? The relentless humidity across Delmarva and lower 2/3 of NJ? The shorter wintry periods but with stronger snowstorms? The back-loaded winters lasting into early April? I’m interested if you feel the same?

Anway, this week is going to continue the warm and sticky feel at least through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday should have a slightly drier feel heading into the weekend but it looks like warmth and humidity should return Sunday. Much of this week should be dominated by marine flow out of the E. Since the ocean is still near-70, our temperatures will likely struggle to fall below the 60s until Thursday night. High temperatures will be allowed to climb well into the 70s away from the ocean as a ridge builds across E US/E Canada, pumped by high pressure to our NE. It’s going to feel more like September than October…lol. While Thursday and Friday might feel a little more fallish than the rest of this week, the true return to FALL should occur next week. That would come in the form of a cold front behind a possible Monday-Tuesday coastal storm. Whether or not the coastal storm hits NJ or stays offshore is yet TBD but currently modeled a weak miss. Right now, models are seeing some upper-level energy loosely phasing and puncturing the ridge in that time frame for us. The primary interest in that coastal system is the N winds behind it that will help rip the cool/crisp air back down.

Monday (Oct 4) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel. Periods of rain are likely and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Beaches could see enhanced rip currents. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as rain and storms continue.

Tuesday (Oct 5) high temperatures should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from N to S. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Some areas might periodically break for sun. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (Oct 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall to near-60.

Thursday (Oct 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s.

Friday (Oct 8) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s with the drier feel holding. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be extremely light in any direction. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs near-70 with Saturday looking slightly unsettled and Sunday looking more humid (at least for SNJ). Watching a coastal storm signal next Monday-Tuesday (Oct 11-12) – currently modeled weak and offshore but that should queue the cool and crisp fall weather to return. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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