Great Weather on the Horizon

Written on 08/30/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: Words cannot describe some of the imagery and hardship coming out of Louisiana after yesterday’s category 4 landfall. It hurts to think about. If I can help anyone in any way down there, please let me know. Out thoughts and positive vibes for healing and recovering are with you!

Ida will now curve towards us and provide us with heavy rainfall and likely embedded thunderstorms this Wednesday-Thursday. Models are a little different on timing. The Euro is more of a full Wednesday-Thursday event. The GFS is more of an all-day Wednesday into Thursday AM event. My gut is feeling is late-morning Wednesday to noon Thursday. But either way, Wednesday and Thursday are the days when Ida’s remnants will be passing over NJ. Incredible that we’ve dealt with 3 tropical cyclone remnants in just a few weeks. I would assume flash flooding, from heavy rainfall, and isolated instances of severe thunderstorms are the most likely outcomes for NJ Wed-Thurs. There will not be a defined tropical core circulation. That will merge into the cold front and enhance the front with precipitation. There should be a mid-latitude cyclone left at about ~995mb of pressure/intensity. Historically a ~995mb can produce sustained winds of 20-30mph with gusts to 40mph+ but that’s about it. So I would expect some moderate winds to accompany the rain and thunderstorms The good news is that the front will clear through by Thursday night and set up a very pleasant Friday into the weekend.

Monday (Aug 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s with a very humid feel. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (Aug 31) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s with a little less humidity than Monday but still elevated. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Sept 1) high temperatures should range from near-70 to near-80 from elevations to coasts. Watching Ida remnants for potential heavy rain and thunderstorms. Will report accordingly.

Thursday (Sept 2) high temperatures should range from near-70 to near-80 from elevations to coasts. Watching Ida remnants for potential heavy rain and thunderstorms for at least AM hours. PM hours might improve before sunset. Will report accordingly.

Friday (Sept 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most areas with a pleasant less humid feel. Skies should be mostly sunny Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to mid-60s. With lower humidity, Friday night should feel amazing!

An early look at Labor Day Weekend indicates more pleasant conditions. Highs maxing out in the upper-70s and falling into the 50s/60s. Ida’s remnants and the cold front should clear the Mid-Atlantic US out from humidity and rain. I’ll probably have an Ida remnant article out later today or tomorrow. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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