Written on 07/30/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: That was some evening of severe weather last night! The National Weather Service at Mount Holly, NJ will be investigating several areas today where tornados likely touched down across parts of CNJ and SNJ. It was probably the tornado outbreak of 1998 where we last saw similar conditions in New Jersey. For this weekend, upper-level ridging will continue in the W US/W North America this weekend which will naturally force troughing (lower geo heights) for the E US including NJ. It won’t be until mid-next week at the earliest before this pattern starts to break down. At the lower levels, high pressure is currently over the Great Lakes. This will provide NJ with NW flow today (Friday) and W/NW flow tomorrow (Saturday). This should result in beautiful, dry, and pleasant feeling conditions for both days. On Sunday a low will round the trough and drag another front through NJ. This could produce showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon-evening but as of now it doesn’t look crazy…more like isolated-to-scattered stuff not widespread. Once that is through by Sunday evening, another high pressure will set up over the Lakes however upper-level geo heights will remain low (associated with the trough). So this sets up an environment where temperatures will only reach the low-to-mid 80s for most of NJ. However since flow will be SW, it will be muggy with the chance for showers and thunderstorms almost every day.

Friday (July 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with humidity improving throughout the day. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to mid-60s from elevations to coasts. An “open up the windows night” if you can.

Saturday (July 31) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a very pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (Aug 1) high temperatures should max out again in the 75 to 80 range statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with afternoon/evening thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates temperatures only reaching the low-to-mid 80s however humid and unsettled meaning showers and thunderstorms possible almost every day likely during late-afternoon/early-evening hours (the rest of the day okay). Let’s take a closer look on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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