Discussion: The 250mb upper jet is going to be over NJ for the next week or so as it rounds the top of the W US ridging and forces lower geopotential heights for the E US. This should nose a series of troughs in, from the N and NE, over NJ. At the surface this should mean cooler temperatures but still unsettled given the nearby and overhead dynamics. Lower geo heights means an easier time for humid surface moisture to lift and condense into precipitation and thunderstorms and the overhead jet could amplify any cells that form. I’m not seeing any widespread rain or thunderstorms this week but possibly some powerful isolated or scattered thunderstorm cells that we’ll have to track in real-time once formed. Otherwise, after Monday/Tuesday’s heat wave ends, we’re looking not as hot Wednesday through this weekend. Humidity should be noticeable Monday-Thursday. Thursday looks like the frontal passage which should end the storm threat Thursday night and produce dry and pleasant conditions starting Friday and bleeding into at least Saturday, possibly Sunday.
Monday (July 26) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas, maybe mid-80s for ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Afternoon-evening thunderstorms are possible. They should be isolated, maybe scattered, but not widespread. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with coastal areas hanging the warmest near-70.
Tuesday (July 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most areas, mid-80s for the coasts. Skies should be mostly sunny barring any isolated sea breeze front pop-ups. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.
Wednesday (July 28) high temperatures should only reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be partly sunny with isolated thunderstorms possible. NNJ could be a little cloudier than SNJ. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.
Thursday (July 29) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas. The coast will actually be the warmest with temps reaching the mid-80s. Skies should be cloudy and humid with thunderstorms likely. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s.
Friday (July 30) high temperatures should again reach near-80 away from the ocean and likely mid-80s along the ocean. Skies should be mostly sunny with a less humid/pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s.
An early look at the weekend indicates nice conditions. Highs in the 80s. Plenty of sun. Less humid to start the weekend, more humid to finish. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC