Great Start. Unsettled Finish.

Written on 07/23/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: The bottom of a very positive axis trough is currently overhead and will dominate much of the Friday-Saturday pattern with NW flow aloft. Upper-level flow will return to more of a W/NW direction once geopotential heights relax after the trough departure (Sunday). At the lower levels we have an area of high pressure slowly floating through the N Mid-Atlantic US. This will bring pleasant conditions to NJ for Friday and most of Saturday. Once the weak area of high pressure moves offshore, we’ll see a brief period of warm sector flow Saturday evening into Sunday morning before another frontal passage moves through NJ from W/NW to E/SE. As far as rain goes, today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) should be mostly dry. Can’t rule out a pop-up shower off the sea breeze front or something else at mesoscale/microscale level. But likely dry. Saturday night and Sunday have a slightly higher chance for rain.  Saturday night into early Sunday morning is the quick warm front shot and then later Sunday afternoon should be the frontal passage. At this time a break in rain is expected between early Sunday AM and any afternoon activity that forms along the front. I’ll provide an update on Sunday rain chance timing tomorrow (Saturday). Next week looks not too hot but unsettled as another W US ridge pops another E US trough downstream. That would mean temps in the 80s but with humidity and storm chances every day.

Friday (July 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to near-70 from elevations to coasts.  

Saturday (July 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should start mostly sunny and stay optimal (dry and comfortable) for daylight hours. Rain should then approach any time after sundown and for overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (July 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds after rain tapers off during AM hours. Humidity will be back and afternoon thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas.

An early look at next week indicates temps reaching the 80s with afternoon/evening isolated thunderstorms possible any day despite a mostly sunny day overall. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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