Hot and Unsettled

Written on 07/15/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: Higher geopotential heights with an upper-jet to our N (thanks to the Bermuda high return flow) should control the pattern to start this weekend. At the surface, NJ will be warm-sectored Friday and Saturday. This means relentless humidity and high temperatures pushing to at least 90. This will produce higher heat indices (100+) and continue the general safety risk of excessive heat. No widespread storms are expected Friday, mostly just isolated air mass cells here and there and maybe along the sea breeze front. Most of you will luck out but a few will not. These conditions will likely spill over into Saturday AM but then low pressure should approach and pass over NJ between Saturday afternoon and Sunday. I expect very unsettled conditions surrounding this low. Cooler temperatures but increased chances for rain and thunderstorms. Model guidance is currently in disagreement on the end time. Some have the rain and storms ending earlier Sunday. Some have them lasting through most of Sunday and even into early next week. It will all depend on how quick the low and associated cold front move through out to sea (taking the lifting mechanism with it). But for now, I would assume the most unsettled part of the weekend starts as early as Saturday afternoon and lasts at least until late-morning on Sunday. Sunday night is too hard to call at this point (Thursday afternoon) and will require an update on Saturday. Beyond that, the cold front should drop our temps from 90s to 80s and our dew points from 70s to 60s for next week. Still on the warmer/sticky side but not unbearable. This of course once the rain clears out, hopefully closer to Sunday morning and not Tuesday like the Euro is suggesting.

Friday (July 16) high temperatures should reach into the 90s for most areas. ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions should reach the mid-80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a very humid feel. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible but most of the day should just be sunny and sticky. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should hang in the 70s statewide.  

Saturday (July 17) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. Mid-80s for coastal regions. Skies should start clear but gradually increase in cloud coverage. scattered-to-widespread thunderstorms, capable of producing flash flooding, are possible for afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-70 to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (July 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should start cloudy and rainy/stormy with clearing possible by afternoon but not guaranteed. Look for Saturday’s update for a better handle on rain/storm period end time. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates conditions not as hot once the rain and storms move out. It’s looking like highs in the 80s and lows near-70 statewide. While humidity still looks elevated, it doesn’t look as bad as what we’re currently experiencing. While I’d love to say next week looks completely sunny, afternoon/evening pop-ups are always possible.  

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