Discussion: Elsa moved through about as expected. Overall? A widespread run-of-mill overnight rain and wind event that we’ve seen many times before. Some SENJ locations finished with close to three inches of rain while areas like NWNJ failed to reach a half-inch. Everyone between generally ranged between a half-inch and 3 inches. Some areas however did see funky rotation, evident on overnight velocity and rain-wrapped reflectivity signatures, that suggest either a tornado or land-falling waterspout were possible. If you look at the wind gust data, the entire region stayed below the 45mph except for a few anomalously high (70mph+) gusts along coastal Atlantic, Ocean, and Monmouth Counties. The National Weather Service at Mt. Holly, NJ is currently investigating 3 towns for possible tornado touchdown. Will be interesting to see what the investigations produce. Either way, Elsa is gone and she will be over SE Canada by tomorrow morning (Saturday).
Onto the weekend. A ridge is already in place and supported by the Bermuda high. An upper-level low will dominate the central US this weekend. The UUL and ridge will produce SW flow over NJ and keep the region humid. Normally a tropical system departs with a cold front and scoops all humidity away yielding beautiful dry conditions behind. Nope! Not with this one. For the first time in forever, we’ll be humid behind the storm (try not to sing it). Ok I promise that was the last Frozen reference. The converging flow from the UUL and ridge will allow an unsettled environment (easy for the atmosphere to storm). Saturday and Sunday look relatively drier compared to the rain and storm potential next week. So we’re looking at a slightly unsettled and humid weekend followed by a more unsettled next week despite periods of just mixed sun and clouds most of the day. Afternoon-evening hours will be the best hours for showers and thunderstorms to occur. The UUL will then collapse by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week and allow the ridge to back in over NJ. This should take warm and humid to hot and humid for Wednesday-Friday—further increasing the chance for typical mid-summer afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms.
Friday (July 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s, maybe 90 in a few interior CNJ/SNJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds for much of the day. Afternoon-evening thunderstorms are likely to push through from W to E and could feature severe conditions. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s from elevations to coasts.
Saturday (July 10) high temperatures should reach the lower-80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a passing shower. Humidity a little more present in NNJ than SNJ. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.
Sunday (July 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-70s for most areas.
An early look at next week indicates hotter temperatures building by Wednesday. Elevated humidity should remain with ample thunderstorm chances in a generally unsettled NJ environment. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC