Sticky Icky Icky

Written on 06/28/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion:  June is going to finish hot and sticky for NJ. Meteorologically we have a ridge in the NW US and NE US. A weak trough currently sits in the central US. You might have heard about the record heat associated with the W US ridge. The E US ridge is not as hot at the surface but we’re definitely hazy, hot, and humid now and likely through Wednesday. Once the E US ridge breaks down (by Thursday/Friday), a cut-off upper level low should make it’s way from SE Canada back into the S Great Lakes area. This ULL should then slowly drift E over NJ through July 4th weekend. At the surface, the Bermuda high wants to remain parked generally over Bermuda (go figure). A surface low should form under the ULL (near the S Great Lakes) on Friday. This surface low and the Bermuda high should then build a zone of convergence across the E US (Through NJ). This spells rain and thunderstorms for much of July 4th weekend. It’s not what you want to see and I personally hope the current long-range guidance is incorrect. So as it stands, we remain hazy, hot, and humid Monday-Wednesday then unsettled, cloudy, and stormy Thursday through next Monday. I’m going to monitor closely through Tuesday for 1) Wednesday night/Thursday storms (immediately after the heat wave) and 2) The weekend forecast evolution.

Monday (June 28) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most areas. Closer to 80 along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW with noticeably elevated humidity. It will basically feel like someone slapped you in the face with a hot wet dishcloth when you walk outside. Overnight lows should struggle to push below 70 statewide.

Tuesday (June 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-90s for many. I believe a few record high temperatures are in jeopardy for some locations. Humidity will remain elevated keeping the excessive heat theme around. Even the cooler coastal regions might reach the mid-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny but cannot rule out an afternoon pop-up thunderstorm in these conditions. There’s no way to tell when or where that will happen in NJ but if you’re paranoid about it, it will probably happen over you. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should again stay above 70 statewide.

Wednesday (June 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 90s for most areas. Can’t rule out 100 away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Coastal areas likely reach the mid-80s even on the sand. This should be the hottest day of the week which combined with elevated humidity should continue the excessively unsafe conditions outside, especially if not properly hydrated. Skies should start mostly sunny but fill in a bit by afternoon. More pop-ups are possible. Winds should be, wait for it, light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas as conditions become stormier.

Thursday (July 1) high temperatures should only range in the 80s for most areas. Maybe a few spots just break 90. Skies should remain mixed and stormy throughout the day. One would imaging a stormy period concludes the heat wave. I’ll probably put an article out Tuesday to fine tune the storminess that could occur between Wednesday PM and Thursday. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (July 2) high temperatures should range from near-70 to near-80 from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a cooler but humid feel. Rain and thunderstorms are likely. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates cooler conditions with most of NJ in the 70s. The coast could actually be the warmest location (closer to 80). Conditions look very unsettled meaning showers and thunderstorms possible at any time. Let’s take a closer look at the holiday weekend in a few days. Please stay as cool and hydrated as possible. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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