Discussion: A ridge will begin flexing over the North East and Mid-Atlantic US this weekend. It might be Thursday before it relaxes. This ridge will be driven into by high pressure stubbornly hugging the Bermuda area. At the surface in NJ this should produce temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s with dew points in the 65-70 range…hazy, hot, and humid. These past few days have featured dry and pleasant conditions. Today (Friday) is a step-up day…still nice but with slightly warmer temps and building humidity. The heat wave should then start Saturday and possibly end Wednesday. During this stretch of SW flow, there will be no frontal triggers and most will likely see a capping inversion with so much warmth at the lower-mid levels. With that said, widespread storms or stormfronts are not likely. However, isolated/scattered thunderstorms (air mass storms) can form in certain instances. For example, an aggressive sea breeze front can force enough lifting to break the cap. Orographic flow across the higher NWNJ peaks can sometimes do it. In any case the storms usually feature heavy downpours and lightning, not so much damaging winds. Where am I going with all this? In this kind of pattern, random thunderstorms are possible on any day, especially afternoon into early evening hours. However most of this heat wave stretch should be clear and humid. Tropical looking friendly stunted cumulus clouds. It looks like a cold front pushes in from the NW by Thursday. This should cool us down to head into next weekend but it looks like hazy, hot, and humid returns for ~July 4th.
Friday (June 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Coastal regions could hang in the 70s. Skies should start cloudy in the morning but improve to at least a mix of sun and clouds by noon, maybe sunnier. Humidity should start to trickle in with winds light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas.
Saturday (June 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see widespread lower-90s away from the ocean. Coastal regions should hang closer to 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Humidity should be elevated. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70 statewide.
Sunday (June 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most. Coastal regions closer to 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should again struggle to dip below 70 statewide.
An early look at next week indicates the hazy, hot, and humid conditions lasting through about Wednesday. After a stormy ~Wednesday PM-Thursday AM, temperatures and humidity should then break for Thursday into July 4th weekend. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC