Discussion: This weekend looks pretty summery. Upper-level flow out of the NW and lower-level flow out of the SW. That’s a recipe for warmth and humidity but not scorching temps. We’re talking about highs in the mid-to-upper 80s (some lower-90s away from the ocean), noticeable humidity, and comfortable nights. I expect conditions to be clear for most of the day except for late-afternoon/early-evening. This is when traditional air mass storms could form either along a pre-frontal trough or along a sea breeze front. So you could have a stormy 3-7pm for some (not all) inside of otherwise clear and beautiful summer conditions. Next week looks to remain summery as we watch the tropical system play out in the Gulf of Mexico before possibly sliding up the coast as rainy remnants. I’ll be watching this guidance evolve over the weekend.
Friday (June 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see 90 away from the ocean in some spots. Coastal areas likely closer to 80. Skies should be mostly sunny with maybe a few clouds here and there. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coast. Can’t rule out an overnight shower.
Saturday (June 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s with again, interior NJ, the best candidate to break 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a more humid feel than Friday and recent times. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coast.
Sunday (June 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Again with the 90 caveat away from the ocean. Coastal areas closer to 80. Skies should be mostly sunny aside from any afternoon/evening thunderstorms that may form. Hit or miss type showers and storms. Hit for some. Miss for most. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to near-70 from elevations to coasts. Overnight showers are possible but should hold off until dark and happen before sunrise Sunday.
An early look at next week indicates warmer condition lasting through Tuesday, slightly cooler mid-week (highs in upper 70s), then back to 80s for the weekend. Every day should start clear, become at least partly cloudy by afternoon, possibly storm during afternoon/early-evening hours, then clear for night…or what we know as typical NJ summer conditions. Tuesday night into Wednesday looks the most stormy from a well-modeled cold frontal passage. Let’s take another look on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC