Slightly Unsettled

Written on 06/11/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: This weekend and next 10-day stretch or so appear similar. A generally unsettled period. I’m seeing a lot of lower geopotential height activity over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. A few progressive troughs in the NE US/SE Canada region nick us over the next 10 days. Mostly upper-level disturbance but nothing indicating major or severe weather. Just a casually unsettled period. This has pros and cons. It should prevent any excessive heat days but still keep temperatures summery (in the 80s). 80% of the time conditions should be nice and dry but a 20% chance that a shower or thunderstorm could form over you. Nothing synoptically organized, just widespread lifting indicated by the negative upper-level geopotential height anomalies. It’s just that much easier for surface humidity to condense over the hill of gravity at a lower elevation. Much more energy is required to lift through a hot positive height environmentl With that said the sky could have more of a fall look. But with expected temps in the 80-85 range and dews in the 58-66 range, it doesn’t look too bad for most of the next 10 day period. Just plan on the unsettled nature of the atmosphere to delivery rain and t-storms at times. Washout meals not washout days. This weekend starts with onshore flow from low pressure passing through the lower Mid-Atlantic US but eventually ends with SW flow Sunday. One sec…

[Tropical Activity has entered the chat]

It’s a little early but some long-range model guidance is indicating possible tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico to start next weekend. If that were to happen, we could be looking at a synoptic scale rainfall event in the next Sunday-Monday period. It would be from remnants of the system sliding up the E coast. We would need high pressure in place near the Great Lakes by next Saturday to trough-flow the remnants out to sea Sun-Mon. A lot of moving parts but that Gulf tropical storm signal and its remnant departure seem to trigger a hotter period beginning ~June 22-23 ish. A ridge would rebuild like it did this past Sunday-Wednesday and take us back into 90s land. Let’s see how it all shakes out.

Friday (June 11) high temperatures should struggle to escape the mid-to-upper 60s statewide. A cool and mostly cloudy day thanks to marine influence. A few showers around especially for CNJ/SNJ. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (June 12) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas. WNJ has the best chance to take a run towards 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out afternoon/early-evening showers and thunderstorms. Hit or miss type stuff. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall to near-60 for most with more shower/thunderstorm chances.

Sunday (June 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most. Again, WNJ has the best chance to flirt with 80. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Not a washout day. Hit or miss. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates more of the same. Warm but not hot. Mostly nice. Here and there showers and t-storms. Let’s take another look on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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