Discussion: High pressure should remain parked over Bermuda until at least Wednesday night. This will keep the SW flow in place over NJ from the return flow of the Bermuda high. This should make for hazy, hot, and humid conditions Monday and Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Wednesday looks like a transition day as the upper-ridge retrogrades from NE US to SE Canada. This will align for a NW upper-level flow and eventually push the Bermuda high out of place. For NJ, we’ll get cloudy and cooler but humidity should persist through Wednesday while the flow is still SW at the surface. Thursday and Friday then look cooler but still cloudy and unsettled given the general convergence throughout the E US. As of right now the GFS is indicating nicer conditions (warm and dry) for the weekend but afternoon storms still on the table at least at an isolated nature. In theory, modeled conditions should improve as we head through this week, for the weekend with the upper-level NW flow involved.
Monday (June 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most areas. SENJ coastal regions should hang in the mid-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny unless any localized pop-up showers or thunderstorms form (not uncommon in this setup). Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should only rest near 70 as isolated storms remain possible.
Tuesday (June 8) high temperatures should range from near-90 to near-80 from elevations to coasts with elevated humidity. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Afternoon pop-up storms are probable but should more of an isolated-to-scattered nature, not widespread. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should again struggle to dip below 70.
Wednesday (June 9) high temperatures should be similar to Tuesday. Highs in the 80s, humid, afternoon thunderstorms possible. Winds should remain out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 60s.
Thursday (June 10) high temperatures should top out around 80. Some areas only mid-70s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel, especially away from the ocean. On-and-off random showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.
Friday (June 11) high temperatures should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers around. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.
An early look at the weekend indicates more unsettled conditions. Mostly a nice weekend but again with the afternoon thunderstorm possibilities. Temps look to max in the 75-80 range. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC