Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

Written on 05/28/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: This is not a good overall weekend outlook. Monday is looking like the best day of the holiday period. Friday-Sunday is just ugh. So high pressure in SE Canada is currently tracking from just N of the Great Lakes towards the SE Canadian coast. A low will move from W to E across the Mid-Atlantic US in parallel with the Canadian high. This funnels the colder front side of the high (over SE Canada) down and into NJ from the NE. This will set up an abnormally cold air mass for NJ between early Saturday AM and late Sunday PM. We’re talking NNJ in the low-40s Saturday afternoon. Most of NJ in the 45-55 range. SENJ (mostly coastal regions) will actually be the warmest location due to onshore flow over 60 degree ocean water. The low (and associated decent rainfall) should pass over NJ between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. As upper-energy breaks off from the trough, it will interact with a secondary low for Saturday and Sunday. There are two periods where coastal flooding chances are elevated for immediate coastal areas of ECNJ/SENJ. First is Friday night into Saturday. Second is Sunday. The first is occurring just after a full moon, with onshore flow, and periods of heavy rain expected. Sunday is more of an onshore flow thing only since we’ll be a few days past the full moon and have lighter rain. Everything should clear out by Sunday night yielding a much better Monday. All low pressure will be out to sea with dry N flow under sunshine. This should allow very comfortable temperatures in the 70s for Memorial Day.

Friday (May 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain beginning by late-afternoon for most areas, possibly earlier. Most should be dry through at least noonish. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to near-60, from elevations to coasts, as periods of heavy rain move through into Saturday morning. Coastal flooding is possible for ECNJ/SENJ Friday PM into Saturday.

Saturday (May 29) high temperatures should occur during early AM hours (45-60 from elevations to coasts). Temperatures should then gradually fall for most throughout the say. Elevations might get down to lower-40s. SENJ coastal areas should hang near-60 from marine influence. Most of NJ between elevations and coasts should fall to 45-55 range by afternoon. The heavier and more steady rain should end between sunrise and 10am. After that, on-and-off periods of lighter rain are possible with generally raw conditions lasting into overnight hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to lower-50s N to S.

Sunday (May 30) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more raw conditions likely. There could be isolated pockets of heavier rainfall but periods of light drizzle/light rain are more likely. Rain chances should eventually end by sunrise. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to lower-50s N to S. Coastal flooding is possible during the day.

Monday (May 31) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should start mixed and improve throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to near-60 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates 70s and 80s. The start of the week should be the driest conditions. Showers and thunderstorms could happen later in the week. Everyone have a great weekend. If we can get through Sunday, Monday looks gorgeous. Be safe! JC

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