Warm Conditions (May 17-21)

Written on 05/16/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: This entire week looks like a ridge building pattern for NJ and much of the east coast. The 250mb jet should be positioned just to our NE coming down from Canada. Therefore, the 250mb S flow of the jet will be over C US—forming the big E US ridge. At the lower levels this means high pressure locked over the general Mid-Atlantic US east coast through this week and even into the weekend. At the surface this means a warm week for NJ with temps into the 80s and even 90s at times. Monday and Tuesday are transition days so only 70s and 80s. But Wednesday-forward looks like 80s for most with traditional warmer locations (along the 95/NJTP corridor) having a good chance to break 90. The positioning of the high should allow for lower humidity levels to persist through at least Friday. By Saturday the high pressure should be further out in the Atlantic Ocean allowing a more humid return flow to pump humidity into NJ. So warming Monday-Tuesday, warm/hot and dry Wednesday-Friday, then warm/hot and humid Saturday-Sunday. No major rain systems are expected this week however pop-up showers and thunderstorms can never be ruled out especially during afternoon hours (peak instability). I imagine after the warm week and warm/humid weekend, that a frontal passage will eventually set up for early-mid next week. That will likely be our next chance for severe thunderstorms. Until then, enjoy the beautiful stretch of clear and dry conditions.

Monday (May 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. Immediate coastal regions of ECNJ/SENJ could hang in the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few showers around. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (May 18) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ closer to 80. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas closer to 70. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (May 19) high temperatures should flirt pretty hard with breaking 90 for traditional warmer locations away from the ocean. Even the ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions should near 80. Most of the state should push well into the 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to lower-60s from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (May 20) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. Again, the warmer locations (interior CNJ/SNJ) have a good shot at nearing/breaking 90. ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas could hang around 80 maybe even less (mid-70s). Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (May 21) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates more highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s with mixed (sun and clouds), but dry, conditions. Probably the first summer-like weekend of the warmer season since humidity is expected to start pumping in on Saturday. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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