Discussion: The upper-jet should stay close over NJ for the next week or so. This should keep geopotential heights anomalies near-average outside of a weak system on Friday. That will pull down some lower heights temporarily for Friday into early Sat AM but then back to business by Saturday late-morning. At the surface this means a highway for weak low pressure systems to travel on—right over NJ. As of now it looks like these weak disturbances will bring rain to NJ tonight, Wednesday, and Friday. Tuesday and Thursday look okay but could still see sprinkles here and there with the generally unsettled pattern overhead. The Friday out to sea miss of the coastal low should pull down cooler air for Friday night into Saturday morning and, in theory, allow for clearer conditions Saturday and Sunday. It then looks milder and swampy Sunday night into Monday as a warm front moves in from the SW and warm sectors NJ to start next week.
Monday (May 3) high temperatures are into the 70s across much of SNJ. NNJ and CNJ are stuck in the 60s but still some time to climb. Skies should remain cloudy with rain likely through PM hours. A small chance of thunderstorms. Winds are light out of the E/NE for all except extreme SNJ (out of the S/SW). Overnight lows should fall to near-60 for most areas.
Tuesday (May 4) high temperatures should break into the 70s statewide. Areas away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ have a good chance at breaking into the 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a pop-up shower/t-storm, especially during afternoon/early evening hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to near-60 from elevations to coasts.
Wednesday (May 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. NNJ elevations could hang in the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain likely and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to lower-50s from elevations to coasts.
Thursday (May 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to coasts.
Friday (May 7) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain likely. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to coasts.
Mother’s Day Weekend doesn’t look to bad as of now. Saturday looks a bit sunnier than Sunday but both days are sandwiched between an unsettled Friday and Monday. With that said, I don’t see anything that would ruin outdoor plans but cannot rule out a few sprinkles. Let’s take a closer look later in the week. Be safe! JC