Unsettled Start. Nice Finish (April 30-May 2)

Written on 04/29/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: An unorganized synoptic system is passing by to our N tonight (Thursday night) through tomorrow (Friday AM). We’re in the warm sector now, closer to the low, which is why our skies are mild and cloudy with a few showers. It looks like a pre-frontal trough could spark heavier showers and thunderstorms in the now through 8pm window this evening but not for everyone. The rain/storm line could be broken as it moves through NJ from W to E during these hours. But some areas will be hit. The cold front should then push through during early Friday AM hours with a few more frontal areas of precipitation. By Friday late-morning, winds should be noticeably increased out of the W/NW. We’re looking at a tight pressure gradient enhanced by some upper level energy sandwiched between a ~980mb low over Nova Scotia and high pressure dropping S over the Great lakes. These gusty straight line winds ( 20-30 sustained with gusts of 40-50mph at times) should blow out of the W/NW and last through the rest of Friday into early Saturday AM. Winds should then subside for Saturday as the cooler air mass settles into the region. We’re looking at highs only in the 60s for Friday and Saturday with cool nights (down into 30s for elevations – 40s for most of NJ). But then Sunday we moderate back to near-80 for most areas as SW flow takes over from the NW quadrant of the Bermuda-bound high. This should keep us mild through at least Tuesday night then seasonably average for the rest of next week.

Friday (April 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Passing showers/t-storms are possible but likely isolated. Winds should become gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to upper-40s from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (May 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should transition from gusty in the morning to light/breezy by afternoon-forward (out of the W/NW). Overnight lows should range from near-50 to mid-50s from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (May 2) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas. Immediate coastal regions of SENJ should hang closer to 70. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to coasts.  

An early look at next week indicates more highs in the 60s and 70s with mixed conditions (mostly clear with a few showers/t-storms possible here and there). It looks like Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week where many could reach 80. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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