Early Whiff of Summer (April 26-30)

Written on 04/25/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: We’ll spend much of this week to the S of the upper-jet (in a ridge). Only the nose of a progressive trough should then swing through between Friday night and Sunday morning before ridging returns for next week. With the higher sun angle this time of year, this should spell out some warmth for the lower levels, especially Tuesday-Wednesday. But first, the progressive rain system has moved out and we’ll be in cooler N/NW flow for the rest of today/tonight (Sunday). Highs are just nearing-60, now that the sun has broken through for most areas, but the cooler flow should allow lows tonight (Sunday night/Monday morning) to dip into the 30-45 range (elevations to coasts). Monday will be a day of transition but still very nice. By Tuesday, high pressure will establish in the SE US, generating SW flow for NJ from Tuesday to about Thursday morning. This should spike Tuesday and Wednesday pretty warm with the higher angle sun. Thursday could still get pretty warm but should be cloudier and eventually rainy/stormy as a front pushes through from NW to SE under the upper-jet. This frontal passage should at least have rain with it but possibly thunderstorms as well. That would be for Thursday into Friday. Will need to take a closer look Wednesday to better assess the Thursday-Friday storm potential and severity. The frontal passage should then return us back to pleasant conditions (not hot) for Friday into the weekend. Beautiful days and cooler nights kind of stuff. Science would suggest the warmer/hotter feel could then return with the SW flow/upper-level ridging expected Sunday into next week.

Monday (April 26) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should start breezy out of the NW but subside by afternoon. Overnight lows could dip close to freezing for NNJ elevations while SNJ coastal areas hang near-50. Most areas between upper-30s to mid-40s.

Tuesday (April 27) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s for most areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 80 reached for interior CNJ/SNJ. Immediate coastal areas could hang in the mid-60s, maybe a little cooler along the Delaware Bay coast. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fail to dip below 50 statewide.

Wednesday (April 28) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see interior CNJ/SNJ flirt with 90. Even the coolest locations (SNJ coastal areas) should crack 75. Skies should be mostly sunny with maybe some hazier upper-level clouds (summer look). In this kind of scenario, you can’t rule out an isolated pop-up shower/thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 60 statewide.

Thursday (April 29) high temperatures should reach into the mid-70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers and possibly thunderstorms moving through. If the sun can break through anywhere during late-morning/early-afternoon hours, then 80 is not off the table. Otherwise, cloudy and cooler than Tuesday-Wednesday. Winds should be light out of the E/NE (a little breezier along the immediate ENJ coast). Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Friday (April 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s.

An early look at the weekend indicates a cooler start and warmer finish with mostly nice conditions as of now. Let’s see how everything looks in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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