Discussion: Lower 500mb heights should continue to dominate the pattern with trough after trough swinging down and in from central Canada through the US. Because the troughs feature a positive axis, nothing big can really spin up. It does however keep the region cooler (slightly below average) and unsettled (spring showers). I don’t see our region getting under higher 500mb heights (ridging) until the last few days of April. In the meantime we won’t be cold cold. We’ll still get into 60s during the day and that should feel great in the sun. Nights however should be noticeably cooler than average for this time of year. More of an early spring feel than mid-spring feel. This coming Tuesday looks warmer because the flow will be out of the SW despite the lower heights and cooler air aloft. That’s the type of setup that can spark instability showers, even a thunderstorm, but nothing serious without any synoptic triggers.
Friday (April 16) high temperatures have peaked in the 50s for most areas. Skies should remain mostly sunny/mixed into the evening. Overnight showers are possible but nothing crazy. Winds should be light to breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s.
Saturday (April 17) high temperatures should at least reach the mid-50s with some areas breaking 60. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 40s.
Sunday (April 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Interior CNJ/SNJ could flirt closer to 70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds (more clouds than sun likely). Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to coasts.
An early look at next week indicates milder conditions overall. Highs in the 60s with 70s possible, especially Tuesday. No major weather systems are expected as of now. Can never rule out isolated showers and t-storms this time of year however.