A Cold Dip (March 29-April 2)

Written on 03/29/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: The upper-jet looks very wavy and meridional over the next week or so. The lows are obviously not dipping as far S anymore as our p-types have been mostly rain and driven by cold frontal passages to the S of the lows. But that’s what happens in Spring as the polar jet in-general pulls N for the warmer N hemisphere months. This allows the temperate zone to have more influence over Mid-Atlantic US latitudes and ultimately influence by the sub-tropical jet stream. Despite the meridional jet, geopotential heights appear uneventful. We have a cold front moving through now (behind that thin Sunday night storm line) but high pressure approaching the SE US will generate more of a W flow for NJ rather than a typical colder N/NW flow. This will mean a slightly cooler Monday (not cold) but a milder Tuesday-Wednesday. More frontal rain is expected Wednesday PM into Thursday AM. Once that front is through, high pressure approaching the Great Lakes will generate a traditional colder N/NW flow. This should drop temperatures significantly for Thursday PM through Saturday AM. I wish this was an April fools joke but it’s not. We’re talking overnight lows below freezing (Thur and Fri night) and highs in the 40s Friday. By Saturday, the high will make it’s way down to our S instead of W. This will allow W/SW flow to return the milder pattern starting Sunday and lasting as far as I can see through next week. So aside from the colder Thurs PM-Sat AM dip, we’re looking pretty good otherwise.

Monday (March 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most areas. Skies should be mixed-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be gusty to start out of the NW but subside by late-afternoon. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to mid-40s from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (March 30) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most of NJ, possibly closer to 70 for CNJ/SNJ away from the ocean/bay. Immediate coastal regions have the best chance to hang cooler in the mid-to-upper 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s/lower-50s range.

Wednesday (March 31) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely (PM hours favored over AM). Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to sea.

Thursday (April 1) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most areas but likely earlier than later in the day. Rain should end by noon with skies improving by late-afternoon. Winds should become light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should plunge, ranging from lower-20s to lower-30s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (April 2) high temperatures should only reach into the 40s statewide. NNJ elevations could struggle to escape the 30s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from elevations to coast.

An early look at the weekend indicates a gradual step back to sustained milder conditions. Maybe half-way back Saturday (highs in the 50s) and all the way back Sunday (highs in the 60s). Both days look dry as of right now. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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