Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)

Written on 02/26/2021
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: An area of high pressure is moving through from W to E. It brought us a cold Thursday night but will now moderate temperatures with it’s departing return flow. The ocean is running 38-39F but the sun should take most to the mid-40s, possibly milder today (Friday). This should keep the lower 2/3 of NJ above freezing through tonight but NWNJ should dip below freezing ahead of the approaching weak disturbance. With that said, a trace-to-light snow event is possible for NWNJ between early and late-morning Saturday. A C-2 type range, nothing crazy. For the rest of NJ (S of I-80/SE of I-287) rain is mostly likely. Rain should end by noon Saturday with some improvement Saturday afternoon-evening before more precip returns for Sunday. Once Sunday’s precip clears out (by Monday morning), a cold shot should settle in from Monday night through Wednesday morning. Then another warming weak disturbance (possibly wintry for NWNJ) is signaling for Wednesday-Thursday with a cold trough behind it for the weekend.  Right now, the disturbance is too far ahead of the trough. But if there was to be more interaction then the models would start showing a snowier solution for that Wednesday night into Thursday period. Otherwise there is nothing big or very interesting snow-wise to close out February and start March.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Feb 26) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some SNJ locations near-50. Skies should be mostly sunny with calm winds during the day. Rain for most (snow for NWNJ) is likely overnight. Areas N of I-80/NW of I-287 could see anything from a coating to an inch or two in the higher elevations before warming by mid-morning Saturday.

Saturday (Feb 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for NNJ and low-to-mid 50s for CNJ and SNJ. SNJ could take a run at 60. Rain should taper off for most by noon with maybe some improvement/clearing afternoon into early-evening. This could produce majestic early spring feelz. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to sea.  

Sunday (Feb 28) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to sea.

An early look at next week indicates a colder dip Monday night through Wednesday morning. Wednesday and the rest of the week should have no problem reaching into the 40s statewide. Looks like a mixed bag of mostly clear conditions with here and there rain showers. Next weekend then looks colder.

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