Conditions to Improve (July 10-12)

Conditions to Improve (July 10-12)

Written on 07/10/2020
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: A quick update on the “Tropical Storm” currently impacting NJ. Most conditions are going as expected regarding rain, wind and coastal flooding. I’m not sure we’ll reach tropical storm intensity but whatever. Either way this is much needed rainfall for areas heading towards a drought. Right now (Friday morning) the storm is pulling a lot of warm moisture off the ocean. The rainfall features warm fine drops which is typical of a warm-core system. Winds are cranking mostly for coastal regions and water levels are rising as expected from the onshore flow surge. My only real concern at this point is flash flooding from the heavy rainfall falling on dry land. At the end of the day however this is just a coastal disturbance/storm…conditions we’ve seen many times. I still expect rain to shut off from SNJ to NNJ between about noon and early-evening today (Friday). Once this system clears out by later this evening/tonight we will not be left with a trailing cold front of relief. Instead we’ll still be inside of a warm air mass featuring SW or W/SW flow. So Saturday and Sunday of this weekend will feature heat, humidity and possibly pop-up showers and thunderstorms. My gut feel says most areas should be okay though with mostly sun and clouds despite the gross sticky feel. Next week we might see a hair relaxation of temperatures and humidity in the Monday-Wednesday period (nothing significant) but then some more serious heat and humidity should build Thursday into the weekend.                          

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (July 10) high temperatures should max out near-80 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall. With the elevated humidity it should feel like a tropical rain forest. Rain should shut off from S to N between about noon and late-afternoon/early-evening (SNJ stops first, NNJ stops last). Winds should be breezy-to-gusty especially for ECNJ/SENJ. Coastal flooding is likely. Overnight lows should only fall to the low-to-mid 70s.

Saturday (July 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should again only fall to low-to-mid 70s.

Sunday (July 12) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a pop-up but Sunday looks like the driest day of the weekend. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates more of the same. Highs into the 80s/90s with a chance for pop-ups on any day. Monday-Wednesday should still be warm and humid but possibly with highs struggling to break 90. Thursday into the weekend then looks like the hottest period with temps well into the 90s. After all, it is the warmest time of the year.

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