Discussion: We currently have an upper level low over KY/TN weakening as it is colliding with strong ridging over SE Canada/NE US. It if fizzled out completely we would not have a worry about nuisance precipitation Friday-Saturday. But it does look to pass over NJ as a much weaker upper level disturbance capable of producing showers at times. There will be a very weak surface low associated with this remnant upper level wave so it is just enough uncertainty for again, a nuisance situation Friday or Saturday NOT a washout. Cloud thickness and density are a hard call. I can’t tell if it will be a widespread overcast of clouds Friday-Saturday or dense clouds with sun between producing only isolated showers. I am hoping for the latter as it will mean more areas luck out. By Sunday the low will be offshore but still feeding in onshore flow. Most of NJ looks gorgeous but immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas could suffer from the chillier onshore flow…coming off 58F sea surface temperatures. So ECNJ/SENJ should be a different planet than the rest of NJ Sunday. Monday the onshore flow relaxes and coastal temps are allowed to climb well into the 60s as the rest of NJ seas another great day. Monday probably looks like the best day of the weekend statewide. The pattern then looks much warmer Tuesday-forward with highs well into the 70s and 80s.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey.
Friday (May 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to break 70. Skies should start partly cloudy but transition to mostly cloudy with a chance of isolated showers during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the SE for most, a bit breezier near the ocean. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s.
Saturday (May 23) high temperatures should reach near-70. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with more chances for isolated showers possible. If you can dodge the showers it should be ok. High uncertainty but a generally unsettled look overall. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (May 24) high temperatures should reach into the 70s away from the ocean. ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions however could struggle to escape the 50s (near-60 at best). Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the E for most, but breezier for ECNJ/SENJ. Overnight lows should drop to near-50.
Monday (May 25 – Memorial Day) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most, possibly near-80 for interior CNJ/SNJ. ECNJ/SENJ might only reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s.
An early look at next week indicates warmer conditions. 70s and 80s Tuesday straight into next weekend. Most of the period looks clear but can’t imagine thunderstorms won’t eventually build at some point.
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