Discussion: Upper-level analysis indicates the jet staying S of NJ this weekend in the continued-E US trough pattern with abnormally low 500mb geopotential height anomalies. If this was winter the snow lovers would be excited. But it’s not. The sun angle is approaching annular peak (June) and climatology makes it incredibly difficult for snow to fall and stick this time of year even overnight. We will however have a low pressure system riding the front of the trough Friday night into Saturday morning. There’s enough cold air to our NW to mix some snow into at least NWNJ elevations possibly down to the turnpike/I-95 corridor. Accumulations would likely only happen for NWNJ elevations and would be trace-to-light at best. For the rest of NJ, especially along and SE of the turnpike, a cold rain is the most probable outcome. Please try not to become emotionally overwhelmed by some of the click bait I’m seeing out there. The heaviest precipitation looks to fall Friday night into early Saturday morning with tapering on-and-off rain and breezy winds Saturday. Sunday, by far, looks like the nicer day of the weekend. Then we deal with a few more days of below-average temperatures next week (not THAT cold). By Thursday we should then start to slide into a prolonged period of sustainable warmth through the rest of May and into the summer. So we hit rock bottom on this colder crap this weekend and finally start the warm season later next week.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey.
Friday (May 8) high temperatures should range from lower-50s to lower-60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely (afternoon/evening-forward favored). Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (May 9) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun, clouds and a few morning rain showers (possibly snow mixing in N and W of the NJTP. A cold rain more likely for areas along NJTP and SE. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (May 10) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates the last of the below-average temperatures. We’re talking highs in the upper-50s/lower-60s. It looks like the sustainable warmth begins next Thursday (5/14)-forward with highs consistently reaching near-70 or above. Something to look forward to. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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