Unsettled Conditions (April 24-26)

Written on 04/23/2020
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: The upper-level jet should stay to the S of NJ this weekend with a trough of below-average geopotential height anomalies overhead. This should keep NJ and surrounding areas very unsettled with colder air aloft over a milder surface temperature profile. Two synoptic lows should transfer right through New Jersey, one tonight (Thursday) into Friday and the other Sunday into Monday. This should produce periods of rain Friday and Sunday leaving a nice break between on Saturday. Temperatures will likely remain cooler than average through the rest of April due to the MJO phase 2-3 propagation, W US ridging (+PNA) and E US troughing that snow lovers wish we saw in Dec-Feb of the last 2 winters. Go figure. It is late-April however so temperatures won’t be too cold but just cold enough for nuisance. Between now and the second week of May we’re likely looking at a roller coaster of 1-2 day warmups and 2-3 day chill downs. There’s no sign of sustainable warmth in my forecasting range of confidence. Like many recent springs we’ll probably dive straight into hot and humid conditions by mid-May rather than a gradual and consistent build up. If this seems new to you then welcome to the post-millennium NJ seasonal calendar.

Friday (April 24) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Rain could be heavy at times with a few embedded boomers (AM hours favored). PM hours should feature less/tapering rain but still unsettled. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (April 25) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be sunny during the day with increasing clouds by evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most areas with rain returning overnight into Sunday.

Sunday (April 26) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should start cloudy and rain in the morning but improve by afternoon hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates a cool start Monday (highs in the lower 50s) followed by a milder Tuesday-Friday (highs near-60/low 60s). Overnight lows generally down into the 40s. No major large storm systems but possibly some run-of-mill spring showers and thunderstorms here and there. Looks like another frontal passage/storm line is possible Wednesday PM. Let’s take a closer look on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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