Unsettled Conditions (March 27-29)

Written on 03/27/2020
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ this weekend before sinking over/just S of NJ by mid next week. 500mb height anomalies should be positive for this weekend correlating with the jet-formed ridge before lowering for next week. A blocking signal over Greenland might take us into the cooler territory from mid next week through next weekend but not cold enough for wintry conditions in NJ. During this time we’ll see lower upper-level heights. For this weekend, surface conditions should remain unsettled and rainy despite the warmer overall setup. Even though snow is likely off the table until next season we have to watch for any coastal storms spinning up with the blocking signal. The block would hold a coastal system in place longer—extending the duration of rain and wind. Again, nothing strong modeled now just a weak looking offshore system next ~Wed-Thurs. I’ll update accordingly.

Friday (March 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should start mostly cloudy but give way to a mix of sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (March 28) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light out of the E/SE, slightly breezier along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coast. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.

Sunday (March 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. NNJ elevations could hang in the mid-to-upper 50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few rain showers around. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates nothing out of the ordinary. Highs in the 50s, maybe 60 in a few spots. Lows in the upper-30s/lower-40s NNJ/SNJ. A few rain showers around, possibly a weak offshore system Wednesday-Thursday but too warm for snow and too weak for any kind of wind concern. The winter baseball game is over. Two dud winters in a row for snow lovers.  Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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