Cold Wet Start. Mild Sunny Finish (March 6-8)

Cold Wet Start. Mild Sunny Finish (March 6-8)

Written on 03/05/2020
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: A very dynamic upper-level interaction should occur between an incoming transient trough and a southern stream shortwave this Friday-Sat AM. Right now the southern energy is expected to race ahead of the trough on Friday bringing warmer rain and wind to NJ. Once the associated low is out near the 40N/70W benchmark it should be bombing out but too far E of NJ for a snowstorm. Models are currently seeing a sub-970mb low, which is strong, but again not optimally timed with the northern energy for the snowstorm. As the low pulls further away late-Friday night into Saturday morning the late trough will be moving in. We’ll likely see some lift-benefitting interaction between the ocean low and trough. It might resemble more of an inverted or even NORLUN tough. Regardless there will be some lifting and moisture around Friday night into Saturday morning with crashing temperatures. Some NJ areas could see rain change to snow before ending with little-to-no surface accumulations due to the warmer surface temperature profile. NNJ elevations would have the best chance to see trace accumulations. Overall it doesn’t look like a big deal. Immediate SENJ coastal areas should see the greatest impacts in the form of rain, wind and surf. The rest of Saturday then looks chilly and dry as the transient trough moves overhead with N/NW winds. On Sunday we’ll start a warm-up with ridging and SW flow that should last well into next week. A few disturbances are expected next week. One is overnight Wednesday into Thursday and the other is Friday. The former might time perfectly with colder overnight temperatures and drop a nuisance wintry mix with little-to-no accumulation. The latter looks too warm for now.

Yesterday there was one model that showed a major snowstorm on March 13 but it was highly anomalous and against the grain of consensual model guidance. The threat has already dropped off of that same model to just rain today—like the rest of the models. Fantasy range model output without consensual data support is no reason to panic or even take seriously. However sometimes you’ll see the “amateur hour” orgs post the model output for shock factor click bait.

Friday (March 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should gradually build out of the E or E/NE throughout the day. Onshore winds could become breezy/gusty for immediate coastal areas for PM/overnight hours. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to upper-30s. Parts of NJ (where temps crash hard enough) could end with overnight snow showers but little-to-no surface accumulations are expected.

Saturday (March 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Skies should start mostly cloudy, with remnant precipitation likely, during early AM hours but gradually improve from mid-morning and forward. Winds should be breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (March 8) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see areas away from the ocean break into the lower-60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates milder conditions. Most locations should reach into the 50s possibly 60+ in the traditional warmer locations of interior CNJ/SNJ. You might see some NNJ elevations hang in the upper-40s. A few disturbances should float through with more rain and possibly non-accumulating snowfall for colder N/NW locations. For snow to happen it would have to be overnight when temps bottom out. Not going to happen during the day. There is not a major east coast blizzard expected. See the above discussion as to why some might think so. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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