March 2020 Outlook

March 2020 Outlook

Written on 03/02/2020
Jonathan Carr

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of March 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But general temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of reasonable expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast. You’ll never see me commit to specific surface conditions outside of the 7-day forecasting period.

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The following diagram is calculated using WeatherTrends360 proprietary algorithms for New Jersey in general. Please keep in mind that micro-climate influences can vary. NWNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens (away from the ocean), for example, will verify slightly colder than illustrated due to elevation and soil heat exchange. Interior CNJ/SNJ (closer to N Delaware/Philly/Trenton – I-95 corridor into NENJ) slightly warmer than illustrated due to urban heat island effect and several other influencing factors. All areas of NJ however would have similar graph trends and sky conditions. It’s best to let the following graph paint an overall picture (trends) instead of focusing on the low-level specific condition details.

Discussion: The WeatherTrends360 algorithms are consistent with the expected trough cooldown this weekend (March 6-8) and the mild ridge moderation period early next week (March 9-10). There’s a strong storm signal for this Friday-Saturday (March 6-7) but as of right now that looks like a mostly rain event with some snow showers possibly mixed in. I will be reporting more on this synoptic system as we approach this weekend closer. After that the trough moves out and a ridge builds with strong S warm flow for early next week. Another small dip and general long-range storm signal exists in the March 11-13 period but that is too far out for details. Otherwise high temperatures look to reach the 50s and 60s for the rest of March (on average) with overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 30s/lower-40s. These temperature values would be near to slightly-above average. Just keep in mind that the ocean is still very cold and will produce colder temperatures for immediate coastal regions, especially when wind direction is off the ocean from anywhere between S and E. Precipitation for the remainder of March would also be near to slightly-above average. The global teleconnections/oscillations remain unfavorable for a big snow storm. By the end of March we might deal with a few thunderstorm events.

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In English: Watching this Friday-Saturday (March 6-7) for s synoptic storm signal (rain, wind and possibly some snow). The rest of the weekend looks cold followed by a warm-up for early next week (March 9-10). After that near to slightly-above temperatures and precipitation are expected for the rest of March. There is something showing in the March 11-13 period but it’s too far out to call it anything other than a general signal. Have a great rest of your March 2020 and please be safe! JC