Discussion: The Mid-Atlantic US should be dominated by converging upper-level jets in a progressive and zonal pattern through at least Thursday this week. We’ll then see a dip in the upper-level jet for Friday-Saturday which will naturally form an upper-level trough. By Sunday the trough moves out and a ridge moves in to start next week. At the surface this means little disruption weather-wise. Monday looks like the best feeling day with Tuesday the most unsettled. Wednesday and Thursday still look somewhat mild but uneventful. The trough should cool us down at the surface Friday-Saturday but the ridge should warm us up from Sunday through at least mid-next week. That’s about as far as I can see with very little time remaining for snow as winter’s end . It won’t be long before sustained warmer conditions set in. You should already notice the higher sun angle and morning birds chirping.
Monday (March 2) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ. Interior CNJ/SNJ should reach the highest temperatures. Immediate coastal SNJ/SENJ likely a bit cooler from marine influence. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most areas with periods of rainfall likely moving in.
Tuesday (March 3) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to low-60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of scattered rain likely. Winds should remain out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 40s for most areas.
Wednesday (March 4) high temperatures should range from lower-50s to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should gradually clear from morning through afternoon. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.
Thursday (March 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ would have the best shot at running into the mid-50s possibly higher. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s for most areas.
Friday (March 6) high temperatures should range from lower-40s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun, clouds and a few isolated showers possible through day and overnight. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at the weekend indicates generally dry conditions after a few possible isolated showers clear out Saturday AM. Saturday should remain chillier like Friday but Sunday should feel milder. The very end of my forecasting comfort zone would suggest a mild start to next week. No snowstorms are expected in the near future with meteorological winter ending yesterday and astronomical winter ending March 18. Every day now it’s looking more likely that this will be two extremely underwhelming (snow-wise) winters in a row for New Jersey and much of the Mid-Atlantic US. If something is going to thread the needle it would have to be ~March 11 or beyond. At that point snow lovers will be losing entering the bottom of the 9th. One out per each remaining week of March if you want to look at it that way. It is what it is but it will always be reported without bias. At least spring is on its way! Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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