Mild and Stormy to Colder and Unsettled (Feb 7-9)

Mild and Stormy to Colder and Unsettled (Feb 7-9)

Written on 02/06/2020
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: The next and more significant precipitation slug moves through between tonight and about 6am tomorrow morning. SENJ should receive more rainfall than NWNJ but everyone’s on the hook for widespread periods of moderate, sometimes heavy, rain overnight tonight. Precipitation might then shut off in a dry slot from about 6am through late morning tomorrow (Friday). Then a rapidly deepening low should track right over NJ around noonish with some additional moisture. Guidance is almost unanimous in an intensity of sub-980mb while over NJ. This means wind should crank on the back side of it with the cold front. Therefore expect NW winds to seriously pick up tomorrow afternoon (possibly earlier) as the low continues bombogenesis into the Gulf of Maine. With a low this strong convective thunderstorm are possible. Could get interesting.

Right around noon tomorrow is when temperatures could crash hard enough (with the NW flow) to change ending-rain into snow primarily for NWNJ (Sussex and N Warren/N Morris). If there’s no more moisture then it’s a non-issue. If there’s some lingering moisture around then anything from a coating to a few surprise inches would be possible for said areas. Temperatures should then drop steadily with the NW flow into Friday overnight hours. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some locations drop 30 degrees within a 24-hour period by early Saturday morning.

We then see seasonably average temperatures Saturday through the first part of Sunday and get into yet another winter storm signal that has slowly fizzled in the mid-to-short range forecasting period. Signals do not mean forecasted storms. They represent periods where conditions are supportive of snow if all ingredients come together the right way. Sunday could see some snow showers given the colder environment aloft but the surface will be above freezing. Little-to-no accumulations are expected. Monday into Tuesday looks warm again as the boundary moves back N. We then have another signal in the Feb 11-12 period as temps re-crash. Whether the signal will fizzle like most this winter or come into fruition? We’ll probably know a lot more by Sunday. It’s your decision to get your hopes up or not.

Friday (Feb 7) high temperatures should occur during early-to-mid AM hours…near-50 for most maybe even mid-50s in SNJ. Temperatures then drop steadily from late morning through evening and overnight hours. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible during AM hours. Midnight to 6am looks much wetter then 6am to noon does. NWNJ could change over to ending snow showers by late-morning/early-afternoon if any precip is left. Trace/light accumulations would be possible. The rest of NJ likely ends as rain earlier. Winds should become very strong out of the NW by afternoon hours and persist through evening/overnight. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Feb 8) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s for NNJ/CNJ. SNJ could just break into the lower-40s. Skies should gradually increase in cloudiness throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to near-30 again from NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Feb 9) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with snow/ showers possible. Snow accumulation is unlikely. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ as we begin a warmup.

An early look at next week indicates another warmup Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures should then drop Tuesday night into Wednesday with snow possible. We’re then looking pretty darn cold heading into next weekend. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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