Discussion: It’s time to kill the weekend possibility of a larger snow storm. It was dead after last night’s model guidance, but I wanted to compare today’s 12z model suite to live observations to be sure. It was a strong signal from day 9 down to day 4 but has in-fact dropped off. The northern stream energy is simply too slow/late to the party. Any impacts we see will be from the southern stream energy in the form of an offshore coastal storm system Saturday morning into afternoon. With that said, ECNJ and SENJ have the best chance to see light precipitation in the form of rain possibly mixing in with non-accumulating snow earlier on Saturday. Coastal regions should see higher winds but manageable and only a small risk for minor coastal flooding. The system then passes by and temps warm into the low-to-mid 40s by late-afternoon mostly from onshore marine influence. Temperatures then drop for Saturday night when the northern stream energy finally comes through in the form of light snow showers. As you can see the southern stream comes through about 12-15 hours before the northern stream. If those two pieces came in at the same time we would have been issuing big snow maps today. The two energies would have combined and bombed out the ocean low. Then heavy precipitation and the deepening low would have brought the cold air to the warmer surface and we would have had our snow storm. Next week looks to gradually build to a very mild above-average temperature period by mid-week. Colder air is then expected to return to the region for three long-range storm signals, Feb 8, 11 and 13. I won’t be tracking these with daily reporting. The standard fixed-release products (Mon-Fri and weekend outlooks) next week will cover their evolution status in the discussion sections. If any of these signals transition into probable threats I’ll switch over to daily articles. The winter ballgame is mostly scoreless through 5 innings (outside of extreme NNJ’s snowfall earlier in December). Still 4 innings worth of time before we can truly hang it up mid-to-late March. I’m not saying we’ll get a big snow storm in that period but we have to at least let it play out.
Friday (Jan 31) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most areas. Skies should start partly sunny but transition to mostly cloudy by evening especially areas SE of the turnpike. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to upper-30s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (Feb 1) high temperatures should eventually reach into the low-to-mid 40s by late-afternoon. Morning hours will be in the 30s as our storm system passes by offshore. Periods of light rain, with possibly some snow mixing in, are possible especially for ECNJ/SENJ. Wintry accumulations are unlikely with precipitation ending by early afternoon. Onshore flow from the storm should then warm us into the 40s for afternoon peak temps. Winds should transition from light out of the N/NW to light out of the NE. Coastal areas might see slightly higher wind values but nothing serious. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s with snow showers possible overnight mainly NW of the turnpike favored. Trace accumulations are possible mainly on unpaved surfaces.
Sunday (Feb 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most areas. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates a gradual warm-up to well-above average temperatures by mid-late week. The next storm signals to tentatively track are Feb 8, 11, 13. They’re status will be discussed in traditional Mon-Fri/Weekend outlook articles unless the signal transitions to a probable threat at which point we’ll transition to daily status articles. Have a great Super Bowl weekend and please be safe! JC
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