Colder Conditions (Jan 20-24)

Colder Conditions (Jan 20-24)

Written on 01/19/2020
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: My family is feeling much better as we’re almost fully-recovered from the flu. Thanks again for the well-wishes from everyone. You are all amazing! Tonight temperatures will drop well-below freezing statewide. Breezy-to-gusty NW winds should gradually subside by daybreak but could be responsible for a few snow showers and squalls with NWNJ most-favored. Such snow showers and squalls would likely produce trace accumulations at most but could reduce visibility to hazardous travel levels. Otherwise just one of many cold nights expected.  

A strong area of high pressure is dropping out of Canada into the northern central US. It should slowly track across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley before ultimately crossing over NJ into the Atlantic by Thursday. The front-side cyclonic flow of the high will be responsible for the colder temperatures via N/NW flow. Once the high gets E of NJ in the Atlantic we’ll see a moderating return flow out of the W/SW for Thursday PM into the weekend. This will allow high temperatures back into the low-40s again for Friday and Saturday. I’m then watching the Saturday PM-Sunday period for another synoptic storm signal. We’re going to be dealing with a closed-off upper level low (not encased in the jet). Tracking these things are like tracking amoeba in a petri dish. They are highly erratic and can have a mind of their own. With that said the weekend storm signal is very uncertain with regard to snow vs. rain. Closed-off ULLs have their own cold with them though despite surrounding warmer conditions. It’s all going to come down to if the ULL passes N of NJ (rain), over NJ (snow/rain) or to the S of NJ (snow). Most guidance is suggesting an over NJ passage right now but that should likely change a few times this week as we real in a forecast of more confidence. Once that system moves through another prolonged period of cold is expected on it’s heels through next week.   

Monday (Jan 20) high temperatures should stay below freezing for most areas aside from extreme SNJ/SENJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-10 to near-20.

Tuesday (Jan 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 30s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-teens to mid-20s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Jan 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 30s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should again range from mid-teens to mid-20s.  

Thursday (Jan 23) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.  

Friday (Jan 24) high temperatures should reach into the mid-40s for most areas. Skies should transition from partly sunny to mostly cloudy throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates unsettled conditions in the form or rain or snow. There’s a strong storm signal for Saturday into Sunday which currently favors NNJ for snow CNJ/SNJ for rain. I’ll be watching this system during the week for a more detailed approach. Otherwise the colder pattern should re-load again for the following week.

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