Warm for Winter (Jan 10-12)

Warm for Winter (Jan 10-12)

Written on 01/10/2020
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: The upper jet will be WAY to the N of NJ this weekend…like up in SE Canada. This will shape a highly anomalous ridge over the E US through Sunday. A large area of high pressure will set up over Bermuda and pump the E US with warmth and moisture—something we usually see in summertime. At the same time a low will track from Texas through N New England brining wintry precipitation to the Great Lakes region. The warm sector of that low will combine with the Bermuda high’s return flow and bring us our well above-average temperatures at the surface through Sunday. 60-70 in January doesn’t feel like a beautiful spring day IMO. It feels like the atmosphere has a fever/flu. The only rain I see for the weekend is Sunday morning. This will be remnants of the heavier rain and thunderstorms impacting the S/C US today and tomorrow. It should weaken to only rain by the time it moves through NJ Sunday morning. We then take a step down in temperatures but remain mild/above-average through about Jan 15 (highs in the 50s type stuff). January 16-forward looks cold with the exception of maybe a transient warm day around Jan 18. After that the pattern looks sustainably cold with several active storm signals. The Polar Vortex should elongate slightly in favor of a colder North America. The Pacific pattern should change in favor of a W US ridge/E US trough rather than a W US trough/E US ridge.

Friday (Jan 10) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ with some SNJ locations breaking 60. Skies should be partly cloudy with a mild feel. Patchy fog is likely. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Jan 11) high temperatures should range from upper-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ. If any areas are going to flirt with 70 they would be interior CNJ and SNJ. Immediate coastal regions might hang cooler from marine influence (ocean in 40s) especially Delaware Bay-facing SWNJ and S Atlantic Ocean-facing SENJ. Skies should feature more clouds than sun with a mild feel. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to fall below the upper-50s for most areas. Maybe low-to-mid 50s for highest elevations and closest to the coast.

Sunday (Jan 12) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ would again have the best chance at nearing-70. High temperatures will likely occur early in the day. Skies should start with AM rain but improve by afternoon from NW to SE. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 as a cold front moves through.  

An early look at next week indicates mild conditions continuing. Highs in the 50s though not highs in the 60s. The first cold shot comes Jan 16 with moderation by Jan 18. The second and more potent cold shot comes Jan 19/20 and looks to last for a while. There are several wintry storm signals to track (Jan 18/19, Jan 20-21 and Jan 23-24). My suggestion is to enjoy the mild and heating utility-friendly weather while you can. It looks like winter is about to snap back by the end of this coming week.  

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