Discussion: Tonight we should dip into the upper-20s/lower-30s (NNJ/SNJ) with NNJ/CNJ favored for a few flurries and snow showers. Then we’re pretty seasonal from Monday through Wednesday temperature wise…above freezing during the day and below freezing overnight. Tuesday PM is still showing the synoptic storm signal that’s been on the radar for almost 2 weeks now. It’s not a big deal but it could drop a coating to a few inches of snow across parts of NJ. Right now CNJ and SNJ are actually favored for the most amount of snowfall despite marginal surface temperatures. NWNJ and NNJ could actually just miss the top of the precip shield. Extreme SENJ would likely struggle to accumulate. The upper-level pattern is unfavorable for big snow so this will be a thread the needle event with a small timing window of stale Canadian cold air (not true Arctic air). Tomorrow we’ll have a snow map out at 5pm for this light event. After the transient trough moves out we’ll fall back under the influence of strong SE ridging for later this week/weekend which should keep us mild through mid-week next week. January 15/16 still looks like the time when colder conditions return and I’m following January 19/20 as the next long-range synoptic storm signal.
Monday (Jan 6) high temperatures should reach into the 40s for most areas. Lower-40s for NNJ and mid-to-upper 40s for SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.
Tuesday (Jan 7) high temperatures should range from near-40 to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should start partly sunny but increase in cloud coverage through PM hours. Snow is possible from late-afternoon/early-evening into overnight hours with CNJ favored. Extreme NNJ/NWNJ might be just N of the precip cutoff. Extreme SNJ/SENJ might be just too warm for stickage despite seeing snowfall. Current data favors I-95/NJTP and areas SE of such for anything from a coating to a few inches but the SE trend has not stopped. We’ll have a snow map issued tomorrow at 5pm as we’ll be within reasonable range for a data consensus. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ as snowfall tapers off by daybreak Wednesday morning.
Wednesday (Jan 8) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to near-40 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny after any early-AM flurries taper off. Winds should be breezy out of the W, possibly gusty at times for SNJ. Overnight lows should range from teens to mid-20s NNJ to SNJ.
Thursday (Jan 9) high temperatures should fail to escape the 30s statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ.
Friday (Jan 10) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Rain showers are possible, mainly for NNJ/CNJ, later in PM hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at the weekend indicates freakishly mild conditions on Saturday. I’m seeing upper-50s and 60s for most. Can’t rule out interior CNJ/SNJ flirting with 70 in the usual warmer places. Sunday not as mild but still near-50. The weekend looks mostly dry as of now so my recommendation is to get outside if you can and enjoy the mild conditions. These kind of patterns tend to snap back violently (mild to cold). I’ll see you tomorrow at 5pm with a snow map article for Tuesday evening. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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