Unsettled Conditions (Dec 13-15)

Unsettled Conditions (Dec 13-15)

Written on 12/12/2019
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: High pressure, tracking overhead, has brought us a colder Wednesday night and Thursday (today). Tonight should drop pretty good too until onshore flow develops tomorrow morning off the ocean from the SE. This should moderate most areas to between 40-50 on Friday as precipitation moves in from the S/SW. Most Friday rainfall looks light during the day but should pick up overnight into Saturday morning. Winds should be noticeable but not damaging throughout this period. The strongest winds should actually occur out of the W/NW once the system clears out (by Saturday night). Sunday should remain windy but colder and that cold should last into our next synoptic storm signal for Tuesday December 17. Right now that looks like a snow to ice to rain deal with NNJ favored for the most wintry impacts initially. We might deal with some sleet and freezing rain as warm air advects overhead into a colder surface environment over NJ. NNJ will be the coldest at the surface hence the greatest wintry precipitation risk. After that most eyes are turning towards a strong synoptic storm signal in the Dec 22-23 period. I’ll follow this signal on long-range model guidance and start taking seriously if still screaming this coming Monday. With a period of blocking setting up the pattern supports a wintry storm but whether or not everything comes together for it at the surface is another story. And if the signal drops off by this Monday then the heck with it.

Friday (Dec 13) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should gradually increase in cloud coverage with light rain possible during the day. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Rain and wind intensity should pick up some (nothing too crazy) during overnight hours into Saturday morning with temps holding in the 40-50 range.

Saturday (Dec 14) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s statewide. Skies should start cloudy, breezy and rainy in the morning but improve by afternoon/evening hours. Some areas could exceed an inch of total rainfall between Friday evening and about noon on Saturday. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-40 for most areas as winds switch to and pick out of the NW.

Sunday (Dec 15) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 40s for most areas. Skies should continue improving with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30.  

An early look at next week indicates colder temperatures to start the week with a storm signal for Tuesday Dec 17. Right now it looks like a snow to ice to rain type situation with NNJ favored for the most amount of wintry precipitation to start. The rest of the week should be colder once that moves through (highs in the low-40s/lows in the teens and 20s). The next storm signal is ~Dec 22-23 which the pattern supports for wintry potential. I’ll be loosely following that into the 7-day forecasting period and will report accordingly. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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