Volatile Conditions Detected

Volatile Conditions Detected

Written on 12/05/2019
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: Some flurries and snow showers were moving across NNJ earlier but looks like it calmed down a bit on radar. Should be an uneventful chilly night tonight (Thursday). High pressure should then track near Bermuda tomorrow (Friday) and provide light SW flow keeping it on the milder side. A cold front should then push through Friday afternoon/evening from another area of high pressure tracking in from the Great Lakes. The front looks mostly dry but let’s allow a small chance of an isolated snow or rain shower depending on how the lower-levels shake out temperature-wise. In either case (snow or rain shower) little accumulation would be expected. We’ll then have cold northerly flow from Friday night through Saturday maybe Sunday morning. This should produce clear conditions. Once the approaching high gets out to sea we’ll then warm up for Sunday evening through about Wednesday morning. During this period some areas could easily break 60 during the day. This period also looks very unsettled with a rainy warm sector. Another cold front should push through around ~Wednesday and keep New Jersey on the colder side through Thursday. Then another warm front should push through and keep New Jersey on the milder side Friday and Saturday. You can see why I titled the article using the word volatile. Lastly another synoptic storm signal is showing for the Dec 14-16 period as a more sustainable cold air mass moves in. There’s no way to predict exact surface conditions from this range. It’s a storm signal at most with ensemble support. But it IS our next chance of accumulating snowfall. I’ll give it the weekend to evolve and then start tracking it seriously if still showing Sunday night (within the 7-day forecasting period). Until then I won’t have any additional information for you other than “I’m watching it.”

Friday (Dec 6) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Upper-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few rain showers around especially during afternoon-evening hours. Some non-accumulating snow could mix in for northern areas. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-30 for most areas as light winds switch from SW to NW.

Saturday (Dec 7) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s for most areas. Low-40s at most for CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most areas possibly teens for NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens.

Sunday (Dec 8) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the Overnight lows should range from near-30 to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ with a few overnight showers around. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm by Monday morning.

An early look at next week indicates volatile conditions. Monday through Wednesday morning looks to feature well above-average temperatures with unsettled (rainy at times) conditions. Some locations should easily break 60 in this period. Wednesday-Thursday then looks colder. Friday and Saturday milder. The next synoptic storm signal (possibly wintry) is then in the ~Dec 14-16 window with Dec 15 currently targeted. I will be casually monitoring this signal this weekend. If it is still showing Sunday night then I’ll escalate to detailed daily discussions heading in. If the signal drops off between now and Sunday then the heck with it. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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