Discussion: One final snow map tweak heading into phase 3 of this system. When we made our map yesterday afternoon there was little data to support higher snow totals further S and SE in New Jersey. Since then (last night and early this morning) model guidance has trended towards our gut suspicion of a colder and snowier outcome for parts of CNJ/ECNJ not just NNJ/NWNJ. NNJ/NWNJ still looks to jackpot from this system (highest totals in NJ) but we now have to bring plowable accumulations well into CNJ and light-to-plowable accumulations into northern parts of SNJ.
Rain is already changing over to snow NW of the I-95/NJTP corridor. I expect this changeover to continue from N to S and turn all NJ areas over to snow by noonish today. Snowfall should then fall through afternoon and evening hours and wrap up just on either side of midnight.
It is important to consider a few things. There will be heavier bands of snow with adjacent areas of light snow. We don’t know where these bands will set up exactly and therefore will have to be now-casted. Also the surface is still relatively warm (slightly above freezing) for most of CNJ and SNJ. It’s not a problem in NNJ but CNJ and SNJ accumulations will be dependent on precipitation bringing colder air down from aloft. The increase for CNJ/SNJ snow amounts likely comes at the cost of lesser amounts for E PA via dry slot/transfer. As I said in last night’s article this is a very challenging system. With that said here is the last final adjustment before snow gets going today. Thank you for your patience and understanding!
In English: Rain will change to snow from N to S today. It’s already there NW of the turnpike and all other areas will likely go over to snow by noon. Snowfall will then fall through afternoon/evening hours and wrap up somewhere around midnight maybe slightly after. The above snowmap represents our expectations when all is said and done. The PM rush hour commute does not look good for many in NNJ/CNJ and now possibly some northern parts of SNJ. Have a great Monday and please be safe! JC
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