Discussion: Let’s talk about tonight real quick. The rainfall from the coastal low so far has been confined to mostly along and SE of the turnpike in the form of on-and-off drizzle/mist. As I’ve been saying leading up to this event the rainfall is the least of my concerns. Winds have been gusting between 30-40mph along the immediate ECNN/SENJ coasts with lesser values away from the ocean. About what I expected due to land friction influence. People inland asking, “what storm?” The biggest concern has always been coastal flooding for SENJ ocean-facing coastal areas. So far the tide levels have reached into minor flooding category but the next few could still reach moderate levels. The highest tide now looks like the late Monday AM high tide that occurs just before noon. I now think all NJ coasts are safe from major criteria coastal flooding since the winds are more of a N/NE or NE direction. The lighter rain is expected to spread into more of NJ this evening and overnight. While I’m not seeing snowfall tonight I do see the chance for freezing drizzle to throw down a glaze of ice mainly for NNJ elevations (Sussex, N Warren, N Morris and NW Passaic Counties). Temps should eventually become warm enough Monday to mitigate the concern but watch out tonight through early tomorrow (Monday) AM hours. Then we have the trailing upper-level disturbance/low which could bring a period of rain-to-snow (as temps drop) to the same NNJ elevation areas Monday night into Tuesday morning. A coating to an inch of snow is possible for these areas. For everyone else (NENJ and all S of I-80) a cold rain is the most likely outcome. We then moderate Tuesday through Friday with near to slightly-below average temperatures and dry conditions. A cold front should then move through on Friday with mostly rain along and ahead of it. Can’t rule out ending non-accumulating snowflakes. Precipitation should end early Saturday morning leaving the rest of the weekend colder and clear. Just a small possibility that the SE US coastal storm on Sunday (Nov 24) tracks further up the east coast. For now it’s a miss to the S.
Monday (Nov 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with scattered periods of light rain. It should be a pretty raw-feeling day. A coating to an inch of snow is possible for the higher elevations of NNJ especially later at night. The Monday AM high tide should be the last high tide of concern. It should occur just before noon up and down the coast. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.
Tuesday (Nov 19) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.
Wednesday (Nov 20) high temperatures should reach near-50 again for most areas. NNJ elevations might hang in the mid-40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ.
Thursday (Nov 21) high temperatures should reach near-50 once again for most areas. Skies should gradually increase in cloudiness. Winds should be light out of the W. overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.
Friday (Nov 22) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and increasing clouds early in the day. Rain is possible for PM and overnight hours. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ as temps drop behind a cold front.
An early look at the weekend indicates colder conditions with highs maxing in the 40s and overnight lows dipping below freezing. The frontal rain should end early Saturday and leave the rest of the weekend cold and clear. Wildcard: Another SE US storm should be ejecting into the Atlantic Ocean ~Sunday. If that were to track further up the coast there would be enough cold air for wintry precip. But as of right now it misses all of NJ to the S. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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