Another Taste of Winter (Nov 11-15)

Another Taste of Winter (Nov 11-15)

Written on 11/11/2019
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: First a Happy Veterans Day and a thank you to all who have served our country! The Arctic high is officially into the central/NW US at 1046mb. As it tracks southward, further into the central US, its anti-cyclonic flow opens the gates for Arctic air. Upstream for us there is no blocking or anything to slow down a developing storm. Therefore we have two weak progressive surface features that will determine our conditions. The first is the primary surface low which should track either across NNJ or just to the N of NNJ after midnight tonight. Precipitation should then push through NJ from about 3am to 3pm tomorrow (Tuesday) from W/NW to E/SE. The Arctic air will be crashing through the precipitation shield aloft which means rain changing to snow for many. Surface temperatures however will not crash until later in the evening which severely reduces the ability for snow to accumulate especially on paved surfaces. The second surface feature is a low forming just N of the Bahamas now. This low should track towards the FL coast today and then turn northward into our frontal passage tomorrow. I’m watching this for any notable interaction with the secondary weak feature and the frontal boundary. It could produce a finishing burst of snow for Delmarva and SNJ/SENJ. These areas will be the warmest at the surface after more intense warm sector exposure and proximity to the ocean. For those reasons I wouldn’t expect anything significant to accumulate. But it might produce a “more wintry” mood in the Tuesday late-morning/early-afternoon window. This then sets the stage for a VERY cold Tuesday night into Wednesday morning but more importantly an overall cold period (WELL below-average temperatures) that begins Tuesday evening and ends likely on Thursday. We should then moderate for the weekend but only back to near/slightly-below average temperatures for this time of year.

Monday (Nov 11) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with mostly sun and a few clouds. Winds should be light out of the S but should pick up out of the S/SW into evening/overnight hours. Overnight lows should hold near-50 as rainfall initially approaches.

Tuesday (Nov 12) high temperatures should range from low-40s to mid-50s and that should happen during AM hours. A rain-to-snow situation is then expected between 3am and 3pm (NWNJ earlier/SENJ later) with dropping temperatures. Watching SENJ for a possible (no promises) ending-burst of snow near noon/early-afternoon. Otherwise not a big deal snow-wise. Anything from a coating to a half-inch is possible mainly on non-paved surfaces and with areas away from the Ocean favored. The snow should be conversational but the cold afterwards IMO is a much more dangerous factor safety-wise. Winds should be breezy/gusty and shift from SW to NW with the passing cold front. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s! The temperature drop after precipitation ends (late-afternoon into overnight) will be for real.  

Wednesday (Nov 13) high temperatures should fail to escape the 30s statewide. NNJ elevations might struggle to escape the upper-20s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ. NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens are always subject to a few degrees lower.

Thursday (Nov 14) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most areas. SENJ could hang in the mid-to-upper 30s (marine influence).

Friday (Nov 15) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates near/slightly-below average temperatures. A coastal low off OBX/SC could bring unsettled conditions to NJ at times with SENJ favored over NWNJ for clouds and rain. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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