Colder and Dry (Nov 1-3)

Colder and Dry (Nov 1-3)

Written on 10/31/2019
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: First a quick update on this evening. The lull in precipitation is still expected to last through trick or treat hours tonight. Areas along and NW of the turnpike have the best chance for a passing shower but nothing too bad. During this time however you should expect a stiff S/SW wind associated with the warm sector of the approaching mid-latitude cyclone. The warm sector flow is why we are seeing temperatures close to 70. A cold front is then expected to push through between about 11PM tonight and 3AM tomorrow morning (from WNJ to ENJ). That’s the general window. You could probably narrow that to between midnight and 2AM but let’s approach cautiously. Instability is lacking but the lifting mechanism of the cold front and high wind shear values could still bring down some higher winds from the strong 850mb Lower Level Jet (LLJ) despite the lower-level temperature inversion. Therefore expect about an hour or two period (when the rain and cold front pass over your location) where rainfall could be heavy and winds could be quite gusty (40-60mph). This should occur while most are sleeping but don’t be surprised to wake up to it. The lower-level temperature inversion might do funny things with any thunder sounds produced too. Again the inversion should inhibit lightning but I could see a few boomers making it through.

The whole weekend should then be dry and colder. Expect W/NW winds to still gust in the 20-30mph range behind the cold front through sunrise Friday morning possibly through late Friday morning. By Friday afternoon winds should be gradually subsiding. Friday night into Saturday morning should be cold. Saturday night through Sunday morning might not be as cold as Friday night due to back-side high pressure positioning but still cold. Temperatures then take a Beestie Boy mmmm drop Sunday night into Monday morning due to front-side high pressure positioning (of a new approaching high). Looks like a freeze for many locations.

Friday (Nov 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most areas. After the early-AM nonsense is over skies should be mixed with sun and clouds (the flat-bottom kind). Winds should be breezy, occasionally gusty, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most areas possibly lower for NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens.

Saturday (Nov 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SE. Watch out for fog especially along the coast as warmer ocean air mass is pushed into colder land air mass. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most areas possibly lower for NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens.

Sunday (Nov 3) high temperatures should barely escape the 40s. NNJ elevations might hang in the 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should dip below freezing for many locations. Coastal areas might hang just above freezing.

An early look at next week indicates temperature moderation earlier in the week (highs in the 50s/60s) along with some rain. Thursday through next weekend then looks even colder than this weekend. Winter is coming folks and we’re due for some big snow IMO.

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