It’s a Dry Heat (Sept 20-22)

Written on 09/19/2019
Jonathan Carr

Discussion: A quick safety note to everyone along the Jersey coast. There’s a lot of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Humberto is pulling away and Jerry will likely make a close pass at Bermuda early next week. None of these tropical systems will directly impact NJ however rip-currents and surf along the ENJ coasts should remain rough and aggressive. Please keep this in mind for swimming safety. Lots of beaches no longer employ lifeguards for the season. Just saying! Ok that aside let’s talk about this weekend.

The front (east) side of the ridge has been the primary driver of this past week. The 500mb northerly low has allowed an 850mb area of high pressure to track southward along the E US. This brought us the cool dry sinking air that set up the pleasant (even brisk) conditions these last few days. As we head into this weekend the ridge will shift E so that the meat and potatoes of the geopotential height anomalies are over the E US instead of C US. At the surface this means above-average temperatures for September. While it will be warm (even hot) there will be lower dew point temperatures (likely upper-50s). This should render warm and dry feeling conditions not warm and humid. It honestly looks like the best late-summer weather you can ask for. Evenings and overnights should still feel nice. This pattern should break down Monday night as a cold front ushers in another stretch of refreshing weather for Tuesday-forward. The train of tropical activity from the Cape Verde region (W Africa) continues but none of the tropical systems are currently a threat to the E US. We’ll have to see what forms upstream after Jerry.

Friday (Sept 20) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a dry feel. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Sept 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas…maybe a little closer to 90 for WCNJ/SWNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny with a dry feel…warm no doubt but not sticky/humid. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

The Makers Festival is this weekend!

Sunday (Sept 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. WCNJ/SWNJ has the best chance to break 90. Skies should be mostly sunny. Again, warm (even hot) and dry not warm (even hot) and sticky. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.  

An early look at next week indicates the warm and dry conditions spilling over into most of Monday. On Monday night a cold front could bring some rain but this will set Tuesday through the rest of the week up with more refreshing conditions like we just saw this week. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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