Pretty…Pretty…Good (May 14-16)
Jonathan Carr on 05/14/2021

Pretty…Pretty…Good (May 14-16)

Discussion: Nothing noteworthy in the upper levels for this weekend. The main player will be an area of high pressure slowly tracking from Ohio, over the N Mid-Atlantic US, and out into the Atlantic Ocean. It’s a good time to revisit the physics of high pressure. In the N Hemisphere it’s an anti-cyc

  Jonathan Carr
Cool Mixed Conditions (May 8-9)
Jonathan Carr on 05/07/2021

Cool Mixed Conditions (May 8-9)

Discussion: We should remain in a cooler pattern with temperatures below-average for another week. The Mid-Atlantic US, and most of the EC, cannot escape the relentless progressive trough pattern. At the very least this keeps us cool but also unsettled with clouds and rain. It looks like some ridgin

  Jonathan Carr
Unsettled Week (May 3-7)
Jonathan Carr on 05/03/2021

Unsettled Week (May 3-7)

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay close over NJ for the next week or so. This should keep geopotential heights anomalies near-average outside of a weak system on Friday. That will pull down some lower heights temporarily for Friday into early Sat AM but then back to business by Saturday late-mor

  Jonathan Carr
Unsettled Start. Nice Finish (April 30-May 2)
Jonathan Carr on 04/29/2021

Unsettled Start. Nice Finish (April 30-May 2)

Discussion: An unorganized synoptic system is passing by to our N tonight (Thursday night) through tomorrow (Friday AM). We’re in the warm sector now, closer to the low, which is why our skies are mild and cloudy with a few showers. It looks like a pre-frontal trough could spark heavier showers and

  Jonathan Carr
Early Whiff of Summer (April 26-30)
Jonathan Carr on 04/25/2021

Early Whiff of Summer (April 26-30)

Discussion: We’ll spend much of this week to the S of the upper-jet (in a ridge). Only the nose of a progressive trough should then swing through between Friday night and Sunday morning before ridging returns for next week. With the higher sun angle this time of year, this should spell out some warm

  Jonathan Carr
Not Bad (April 23-25)
Jonathan Carr on 04/22/2021

Not Bad (April 23-25)

Discussion: The positive axis trough pattern is about to end for the E US. It’s been relentlessly holding us slightly below average in temperature and in some cases (like last night/today) well below average. The 250mb jet should make its way back over NJ on Friday. There it will stay until called u

  Jonathan Carr
April 20: Thunderstorms Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 04/21/2021

April 20: Thunderstorms Approaching

Discussion: We’ve had a nice run of non-disruptive weather conditions. Tomorrow (Wednesday) that will likely come to an end with a stormy frontal passage. Low pressure will track through PA into New England (just to the NW of NJ) on Wednesday. Right now (late Tuesday night) we’re in the warm sector

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (April 19-23)
Jonathan Carr on 04/19/2021

Mixed Conditions (April 19-23)

Discussion: The upper level pattern of repeating positive-axis troughs, swinging from central Canada through the E US, will continue this week. Tuesday looks like the mildest day of the week from SW flow culmination ahead of the cold front. Wednesday night into Thursday looks like the coldest period

  Jonathan Carr
Conditions Improve (April 16-18)
Jonathan Carr on 04/16/2021

Conditions Improve (April 16-18)

Discussion: Lower 500mb heights should continue to dominate the pattern with trough after trough swinging down and in from central Canada through the US. Because the troughs feature a positive axis, nothing big can really spin up. It does however keep the region cooler (slightly below average) and u

  Jonathan Carr
Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)
Jonathan Carr on 04/11/2021

Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)

Discussion: The upper levels this week have a very unsettled look. 500mb geopotential height anomalies should alternate between near-average to below-average. This means a lower general atmosphere (cooler aloft) which allows milder rising air and moisture (from higher-angle diurnal surface heating)

  Jonathan Carr
Comfortable Conditions (April 5-9)
Jonathan Carr on 04/05/2021

Comfortable Conditions (April 5-9)

Discussion: Not a lot going on this week. Monday through Thursday fall under the front side of a ridge. This should allow most locations to near-70 during the day and stay above 40 at night. Friday then looks a little cooler with more onshore flow involved. The ocean is warming but still in the mid-

  Jonathan Carr
Cold Start. Nice Finish (April 2-4)
Jonathan Carr on 04/02/2021

Cold Start. Nice Finish (April 2-4)

Discussion: High pressure to our W (over S IL/W KY) is currently producing cold NE quadrant anti-cyclonic flow over NJ. This is tapping colder Canadian air mass and giving us some wind to make it feel even colder in the trough on Friday. That high pressure should gradually track to the SE US (S of N

  Jonathan Carr
A Cold Dip (March 29-April 2)
Jonathan Carr on 03/29/2021

A Cold Dip (March 29-April 2)

Discussion: The upper-jet looks very wavy and meridional over the next week or so. The lows are obviously not dipping as far S anymore as our p-types have been mostly rain and driven by cold frontal passages to the S of the lows. But that’s what happens in Spring as the polar jet in-general pulls N

  Jonathan Carr
Unsettled Conditions (March 26-28)
Jonathan Carr on 03/26/2021

Unsettled Conditions (March 26-28)

Discussion: Most of our pattern, this weekend into next week, will be heavily influenced by a few low pressure systems passing to our far NW. There’s one right now dragging a mostly-dry cold front through. Today, we’re experiencing the warm sector mild flow (just head of the front) that’s spiking af

  Jonathan Carr
Spring is Here (March 22-26)
Jonathan Carr on 03/22/2021

Spring is Here (March 22-26)

Discussion: Nothing serious or hazardous expected for this week. The most noteworthy mention IMO are the sustained milder temperatures. Most of NJ should have no problem reaching 60 this week almost every day and in some cases 70 away from the ocean. The ocean is still colder so onshore flow, even i

  Jonathan Carr
Clear and Cool but Nice (March 19-21)
Jonathan Carr on 03/19/2021

Clear and Cool but Nice (March 19-21)

Discussion: Precipitation should end shortly after midnight tonight (Thursday night). SNJ is finishing strong now with heavy downpours, increased winds, and possibly an isolated boomer or two. Upper-level ridging will then build over the NorthEast/Mid-Atlantic US through Monday with a broad area of

  Jonathan Carr
Unsettled Conditions (March 15-19)
Jonathan Carr on 03/15/2021

Unsettled Conditions (March 15-19)

Discussion: High pressure just N of the Great Lakes is flow-teaming with low pressure in the NW Atlantic. Tight isobars between are currently (as of late-Sunday night) producing cold and gusty conditions to end the weekend and start Monday morning. The NWS has a red flag warning issued until 5pm Mon

  Jonathan Carr
Milder Conditions (March 8-12)
Jonathan Carr on 03/08/2021

Milder Conditions (March 8-12)

Discussion: Monday looks like a day of transition as the colder air mass departs to our NE. N/NW flow will slowly give way to W/NW and ultimately W/SW flow by early Tuesday. This will allow warmer air from the SE US to pump in from the SW for a mild stretch of weather Tuesday through Friday. Not eve

  Jonathan Carr
Clear but Cold (March 5-7)
Jonathan Carr on 03/04/2021

Clear but Cold (March 5-7)

Discussion: The backside of a trough over the NE US will feed our area with colder NW flow at the upper levels from now (Thursday) through most of the weekend until a narrow positive-axis trough swings through between Sunday and Monday. Most of this period looks dry aside from any nuisance showers o

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (March 1-5)
Jonathan Carr on 02/28/2021

Mixed Conditions (March 1-5)

Discussion: We should stay cold and rainy tonight into tomorrow morning as our weak but prolonged disturbance moves through. Tomorrow (Monday) winds should pick up out of the W/NW after late-AM clearing and persist into some of Tuesday. Peak wind gusts should occur during Monday PM hours. Gusts of 4

  Jonathan Carr
Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)
Jonathan Carr on 02/26/2021

Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)

Discussion: An area of high pressure is moving through from W to E. It brought us a cold Thursday night but will now moderate temperatures with it’s departing return flow. The ocean is running 38-39F but the sun should take most to the mid-40s, possibly milder today (Friday). This should keep the lo

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 21: Light Snow Event approaching NNJ
Jonathan Carr on 02/21/2021

Feb 21: Light Snow Event approaching NNJ

Discussion: Tonight should be another cold one. Nothing crazy record breaking but lows dropping below freezing statewide (into 20s for much of NJ). The high pressure, that drove down the decaying Arctic air mass over NJ this weekend, will pass overhead tonight into the Atlantic Ocean. Instead of col

  Jonathan Carr
Cold Conditions (Feb 19-21)
Jonathan Carr on 02/19/2021

Cold Conditions (Feb 19-21)

Discussion: It just occurred to me that I haven’t released a fixed weekly product (Mon-Fri Outlook or Weekend Outlook) since late-January. February’s weather, so far, warranted daily wintry storm articles for the incredibly active winter pattern we’ve been in since about Jan 31. It’s nice to get bac

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 17: Winter Storm Update
Jonathan Carr on 02/17/2021

Feb 17: Winter Storm Update

Discussion: The approaching winter storm is anything but a “start and end as snow” event. It’s an ugly mess of precipitation types including snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain falling on a volatile surface line of freezing.The low should be weak (1000mb+) with a track across the SE US overni

  Jonathan Carr