Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 04/02/2020

Turning Milder (April 3-5)

Discussion: The upper jet is split with the primary streak to our S and a weaker dissolving streak to our N. The N part is powered by the backside (W side) of the departing upper-level low and front side (E side) of an approaching weak ridge. This upper-level N flow correlates with the backside (W s

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/02/2020

April 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of April 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data ar

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/30/2020

Cooler Conditions (March 31-April 3)

Discussion: The upper-jet should remain mostly zonal through Wednesday before dipping S of NJ Thursday into Friday. After that, high pressure backs in from the NE and decently splits the jet to our N and S. Nothing exciting to speak of from 500mb heights point of view. A small upper-level low, hard

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/27/2020

Unsettled Conditions (March 27-29)

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ this weekend before sinking over/just S of NJ by mid next week. 500mb height anomalies should be positive for this weekend correlating with the jet-formed ridge before lowering for next week. A blocking signal over Greenland might take us into the

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/22/2020

Raw Start. Mild Finish (March 23-27)

Discussion: For the most part we’ll see a zonal jet pattern overhead this week before pushing a little to our N by the weekend. 500mb geopotential heights should remain elevated aside from two shortwaves Monday and Wednesday with very little upper-level disturbance. At the surface these shortwaves w

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/19/2020

Mild Start. Cooler Finish (March 20-22)

Discussion: The upper-level jet should push to the N of NJ on Friday as 500mb ridging flexes. The jet should then sink to the S of NJ for the rest of the weekend as geopotential heights relax but still remain slightly positive. At the surface this means a warm March day for Friday, showers and possi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/13/2020

Cool and Dry (March 13-15)

Discussion: A strong zonal upper-level jet will dominate the 250mb space over NJ this weekend. 500mb geopotential height anomalies will remain positive with a weak upper-level trough moving through SE Canada. There will be a strong surface low under that SE Canadian trough wrapped up into a nice mid

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/09/2020

Will Warmer NJ Weather Slow the Spread of Coronavirus?

We’re seeing a lot of conflicting information and fear mongering in the media about the COVID-19 coronavirus. This article is intended to inform our readers of facts and provide an educated response to questions we’ve received regarding weather and its impact on the virus. Especially now that there

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/09/2020

Mild Conditions (March 9-13)

Discussion: The upper-level jet should remain loose and disorganized over the E US through about Thursday. We’ll then see an upper-level jet streak overhead for Friday-Saturday. Aside from a transient trough nose swinging through in that same period, much of the Mid-Atlantic US will remain under a s

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/05/2020

Cold Wet Start. Mild Sunny Finish (March 6-8)

Discussion: A very dynamic upper-level interaction should occur between an incoming transient trough and a southern stream shortwave this Friday-Sat AM. Right now the southern energy is expected to race ahead of the trough on Friday bringing warmer rain and wind to NJ. Once the associated low is out

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/02/2020

March 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of March 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data ar

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/01/2020

Spring is in the Air (March 2-6)

Discussion: The Mid-Atlantic US should be dominated by converging upper-level jets in a progressive and zonal pattern through at least Thursday this week. We’ll then see a dip in the upper-level jet for Friday-Saturday which will naturally form an upper-level trough. By Sunday the trough moves out a

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/28/2020

Dry and Colder (Feb 28-Mar 1)

Discussion: The 250mb jets (Polar and Pacific) are converging to the SW of NJ and keeping the overall jet pattern S of NJ this weekend. The jet should rise back over and N of NJ by Tuesday followed by a short dip for Thursday-Friday before returning N of NJ for next weekend. This should correlate wi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/24/2020

Unsettled Conditions (Feb 24-28)

Discussion: The upper-level (250mb) jet looks very aggressive over the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US this Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning. I see a strong jet streak with ample divergence and difluence aloft. This was the signal I mentioned last week. Like everything else this winter it loo

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/19/2020

Cold Start. Mild Finish (Feb 20-23)

Discussion: Another very positive-tilted upper-level trough will swing through over the next few days before giving way back to above-average geopotential heights Saturday into the first half of next week. That should put NJ inside the trough tonight through tomorrow (Thursday) and under upper-level

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/14/2020

Colder Conditions Moderate (Feb 14-16)

Discussion: A positive-tilted and progressive trough is currently swinging through the region and should give way to the front side of a ridge with upper-level NW flow. This is responsible for bringing the colder conditions that started last night (Thursday) and should last through early Sunday morn

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/10/2020

Unsettled Start Cold Finish (Feb 10-14)

Discussion: Real quick, some precipitation is moving through tonight. Extreme NNJ could see some wintry precipitation type from this. It should move out by tomorrow morning. E US ridging and a Bermuda high should keep temperatures above average through Wednesday. A progressive positive-tilted trough

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/06/2020

Mild and Stormy to Colder and Unsettled (Feb 7-9)

Discussion: The next and more significant precipitation slug moves through between tonight and about 6am tomorrow morning. SENJ should receive more rainfall than NWNJ but everyone’s on the hook for widespread periods of moderate, sometimes heavy, rain overnight tonight. Precipitation might then shut

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/05/2020

Feb 5: NNJ Ice Storm Update

Discussion: It’s been a somewhat colder day than the past few. The boundary has been pulled southward over NNJ from the back-side cyclonic flow of the weak wave that just departed. NNJ is already down into the 30s and some of the precip ended with a wintry mix today. NENJ, CNJ and SNJ remain near-40

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/04/2020

Feb 4: Ice Storm Impact Maps

Discussion: There’s no need to cover the overall global polar and Pacific patterns that are producing an unfavorable environment for winter storm development. Now it’s all about the thread-the-needle wintry events that can still occur in an unfavorable winter pattern.We currently have a flat boundar

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/04/2020

February 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of February 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/03/2020

Feb 3: Ice Storm Detected for NNJ

Discussion: While the overall Polar and Pacific weather patterns, including key teleconnections and oscillations, remain generally unfavorable for winter weather in New Jersey, we do have a few thread the needle events to watch this week. We’re basically going to have a frontal boundary fluctuating

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/02/2020

Mild and Wet for Most (Feb 3-7)

Discussion: In the upper-levels, anomalous ridging should dominate the pattern for the next 10 days. In some cases the ridging retrogrades W enough to pull some troughing down from SE Canada over our area. At the surface this means a very active pattern with a decent amount of rainfall this week. Fo

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/30/2020

Super Bowl Weekend Outlook (Jan 31-Feb 2)

Discussion: It’s time to kill the weekend possibility of a larger snow storm. It was dead after last night’s model guidance, but I wanted to compare today’s 12z model suite to live observations to be sure. It was a strong signal from day 9 down to day 4 but has in-fact dropped off. The northern stre

  Jonathan Carr