Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 01/16/2020

Jan 16: Initial Map for Saturday

Discussion: Today I tested positive for the flu (infuenza A strain) and so did my 5-month old daughter. It’s been a very bad week and I apologize for seeming to be MIA. I’ve been trying to rest and hydrate as much as possible but other aspects of my life have simply suffered. As soon as I post this

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/14/2020

Jan 14: Early Thoughts on Weekend Snow

Discussion: Our weekend winter storm system has trended warmer since yesterday. The main reason? The upper-level low associated with the trough that will be swinging in is now modeled stronger. This propagates down to the surface by intensifying the primary surface low that will initially track near

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/13/2020

Jan 13: Winter Storm Detected

Discussion: On Friday morning low pressure will form somewhere in the Wyoming area and track eastward towards the E US. This low will encounter a strong (1040mb+) blocking surface high over SE Canada/extreme N Maine. This high will do two things. First, it will pump cold air into the surface of the

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/12/2020

Mild Start Cold Finish (Jan 13-17)

Discussion: We are through with the freakishly warm January conditions after today. Anomalously high ridging will continue over the E US this week but fade. That means that Mondy through Thursday daytime hours will still be above-average in temperature but not like the past few days. We’re talking 4

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/10/2020

Warm for Winter (Jan 10-12)

Discussion: The upper jet will be WAY to the N of NJ this weekend…like up in SE Canada. This will shape a highly anomalous ridge over the E US through Sunday. A large area of high pressure will set up over Bermuda and pump the E US with warmth and moisture—something we usually see in summertime. At

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/07/2020

Jan 7: Snowfall Approaching

Discussion: Our system has trended towards an expanded field of snowfall. It hasn’t trended towards more snow than yesterday’s expectation just further N into New Jersey. There is going to be a sharp cutoff of precipitation on the N/NW side of this light system. If you are in NNJ, especially NWNJ, y

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/06/2020

Jan 6: Set the Alarms

Discussion: A very weak disturbance will form overnight tonight in the Tennessee Valley and track through the Delmarva Peninsula area by early Wednesday morning. This should deliver a period of rain-to-snow across parts of CNJ/SNJ between about 5pm and 10pm Tuesday night (tomorrow night). There will

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/05/2020

Snow in the Forecast (Jan 6-10)

Discussion: Tonight we should dip into the upper-20s/lower-30s (NNJ/SNJ) with NNJ/CNJ favored for a few flurries and snow showers. Then we’re pretty seasonal from Monday through Wednesday temperature wise…above freezing during the day and below freezing overnight. Tuesday PM is still showing the syn

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/02/2020

Unsettled Conditions Possibly End as Snow (Jan 3-5)

Discussion: Conditions over the north pole, specifically the Polar Vortex (PV), remain unfavorable for a sustained cold and snowy pattern through at least January 15th. Upstream eastern Pacific conditions, specifically the EPO and PNA, remain unfavorable for any large slow moving troughs over the E

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/31/2019

January 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how January 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/30/2019

Temps Continue to Roller Coaster (Dec 30-Jan 3)

Discussion: After a foggy/rainy start for most of New Jersey Monday should improve after the last round of rain moves through by late-afternoon. You might even hear a boomer. Conditions then improve for Monday night and temperatures roller coaster a little this week. We should cool down for Tuesday

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/27/2019

Mild & Benign Conditions Continue (Dec 27-29)

Discussion: The upper (250mb) jet is expected to remain over or just N of New Jersey for the immediate forecasting period (through first few days of 2020). 500mb geopotential height anomalies will correlate with above-average values through Dec 31 until a closed-off upper-level low passes through ju

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/23/2019

Christmas Outlook (Dec 23-27)

Discussion: I’m not trying to start a religious or holiday war. I celebrate the tradition of Christmas and so do many who follow Weather NJ. However I understand that some/many of you celebrate different traditions and holidays some not at all. If that is you then I wish you the equivalent of the be

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/19/2019

Temperatures to Moderate (Dec 20-22)

Discussion: I believe not one single NJ town or city rose above freezing today for high temperatures. Tonight will be another Arctic-influenced bitter night with overnight temperatures ranging from single digits in NNJ elevations to upper-teens/lower-20s along the immediate SNJ coast. Most of New Je

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/18/2019

Dec 18: Cold Air Arrives

Discussion: The upper-level jet and a closed-off upper-level low will swing through the extreme NE US between now (Wednesday) and Friday. This should result in cold NW winds at the surface for all of New Jersey in that same time period. Right now the lake effect machine is turned on. Cold air is pas

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/16/2019

Dec 16: NNJ Winter Storm Update

Discussion: We had a little wintry precipitation move through parts of SNJ and CNJ earlier today but overall precipitation has been lighter and nothing has stuck to the “just-above freezing” surface temperatures. We’ve also had an area of weak high pressure that has helped to inhibit moisture conten

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/15/2019

Dec 15: Light Wintry Event Update

Discussion: This system is far from a big snowstorm and whatever wintry action occurs changes over to rain. So if you’re looking for lasting snow accumulations from it you should just move along. However since the initial precipitation and transition from it could fall as either snow, sleet or freez

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/14/2019

Dec 14: Wintry Impact Maps

Discussion: We’re now on the back side of the low that moved through last night through early this morning. Just an isolated chance of showers as we head into overnight hours. We should be cooler and drier on Sunday. Colder W/NW flow will then take temperatures down for Sunday night into Monday.Anot

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/12/2019

Unsettled Conditions (Dec 13-15)

Discussion: High pressure, tracking overhead, has brought us a colder Wednesday night and Thursday (today). Tonight should drop pretty good too until onshore flow develops tomorrow morning off the ocean from the SE. This should moderate most areas to between 40-50 on Friday as precipitation moves in

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/11/2019

Dec 11: The Next Storm Signals

Discussion: Our weak anafrontal rain-to-snow system has moved out and we’ll now be cold tonight through tomorrow. Moving forward I’m watching two specific storm signals. You may remember be talking about a December 15th storm signal and how the roller coaster of temperatures would likely produce som

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/10/2019

Dec 10: Snow Changeover Approaching

Discussion: Temperatures spiked very mild today as expected. They will drop between now and overnight hours which should change the precipitation type from rain to snow from NW to SE by morning.We have high pressure pushing the cold in from our NW primarily at the 700-925mb layers. That’s between ab

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/09/2019

Dec 9: Snow Map for Tues PM-Wed AM

Discussion: We’re now in the warm sector of the Great Lakes-tracking low. That’s why we are mild and wet today under the influence of S/SW flow. This will continue overnight and through most of Tuesday with on-and-off periods of rainfall and breezy/gusty winds. Upstream high pressure will then drive

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/09/2019

Dec 8: Midweek Snow Likely

Discussion: Departing high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will help pump and E US warm sector with a Great Lakes-tracking low. That’s going to keep the Mid-Atlantic mild and rainy for Monday-Tuesday with high temperatures pushing 60 at times. On Tuesday evening high pressure will track behind the st

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/06/2019

Volatile Conditions Detected

Discussion: Some flurries and snow showers were moving across NNJ earlier but looks like it calmed down a bit on radar. Should be an uneventful chilly night tonight (Thursday). High pressure should then track near Bermuda tomorrow (Friday) and provide light SW flow keeping it on the milder side. A c

  Jonathan Carr