Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 11/12/2019

Nov 12: Arctic Cold has Arrived

Discussion: Our Arctic frontal boundary has pushed through as expected and we’re now under the influence of an air mass that originated over the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic high that dropped out of Canada over ~North Dakota has opened the gates, with it’s front-side anti-cyclonic flow for this cold to

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/11/2019

Another Taste of Winter (Nov 11-15)

Discussion: First a Happy Veterans Day and a thank you to all who have served our country! The Arctic high is officially into the central/NW US at 1046mb. As it tracks southward, further into the central US, its anti-cyclonic flow opens the gates for Arctic air. Upstream for us there is no blocking

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/08/2019

A Taste of Winter (Nov 8-10)

Discussion: Rainfall is pushing through NJ as expected. Rain to start and finish for most areas with just a chance of NWNJ elevations ending with wintry precipitation. Elevations greater than 1200 feet should expect anything from just rain ending as snowflakes to trace accumulations on non-paved sur

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/06/2019

Nov 6: Rain Ends as Snow for Some

Discussion: A strong area of high pressure is diving down out of Canada into the US near North Dakota/Montana. This high will track S of the Great Lakes and into the Atlantic Ocean S of New Jersey. That puts the entire state of New Jersey on the front-side of the high’s anti-cyclonic flow which ulti

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/05/2019

Nov 5: Watching Thursday Night

Discussion: An Arctic high is currently dropping out of Canada into the US near the Montana/North Dakota area. This high is expected to track E/SE, to the S of the Great Lakes and depart into the Atlantic Ocean somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic US (OBX<->Delmarva). This high is pulling an Arctic air mas

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/04/2019

Snow? Let’s Discuss (Nov 4-8)

Discussion: Temps maxed out in the 50s today (Sunday) and will likely dip for another cold Sunday night/overnight. I’d expect below-freezing for most areas away from the SNJ coast especially NNJ elevations. We then moderate some from Monday into Thursday on the back-side of a weak ridge. Some lighte

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/01/2019

November 2019 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how November 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/31/2019

Colder and Dry (Nov 1-3)

Discussion: First a quick update on this evening. The lull in precipitation is still expected to last through trick or treat hours tonight. Areas along and NW of the turnpike have the best chance for a passing shower but nothing too bad. During this time however you should expect a stiff S/SW wind a

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/30/2019

Halloween Trick or Treat Forecast

Discussion: I wish to extend great empathy for parents and guardians worried about their children tomorrow night during primary trick or treat hours. There are some articles out there calling for Book of Genesis rainfall and Wizard of Oz winds. I’ve been getting a lot of messages about it and figur

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/28/2019

Unsettled Conditions (Oct 28-Nov 1)

Discussion: Upper-level ridging should dominate the pattern through Wednesday possibly even some of Thursday. At the surface this means high pressure but not necessarily clear. We might see some raw misty onshore flow conditions in the Tuesday-Wednesday period. Monday-Thursday looks mild however. Hi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/24/2019

Great Start Wet Finish (Oct 25-27)

Discussion: upper-level ridging should dominate the first half of the weekend pattern with high pressure at the surface. This should keep us mostly dry from now through Saturday night. A weak shortwave should then track through the Great Lakes (well to the NW of NJ) and bring a nuisance period of ra

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/23/2019

Operation Halloween Forecast – This Weekend!

It is our great honor to provide a Weather NJ Special Event Forecast for the 8th annual 2019 Operation Halloween event this weekend!Operation Halloween is a charity Halloween festival that includes both scary and kid-friendly fun. The event is hosted by Southern Ocean Rotary Club and Jersey Shore Co

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/22/2019

Mixed Conditions (Oct 22-25)

Discussion: Nothing crazy to talk about after the recent synoptic coastal storm systems. The upper-levels are barely conversational with transient positive and negative height anomalies in a progressive flow. A frontal passage should bring some rain across the region between Tuesday afternoon and We

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/20/2019

Oct 20: Coastal Storm Begins

Discussion: Good morning! In the upper-levels we have some remnant energy barely recognizable as a short-wave on 500mb analysis. Just a small hiccup in the establishing E US/W Atlantic Ridge. At the surface we have an extra-tropical cyclone (now establishing frontal boundaries) tracking in from the

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/19/2019

Oct 19: Coastal Storm Approaching

Discussion: Remnants of Nestor are approaching in the form of an extra-tropical cyclone. Not a nor’easter by my criteria but certainly a coastal storm. There are no tricks in the upper-levels. This system is heading into an establishing ridge and will likely fizzle out to nothing by the time it pass

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/18/2019

Oct 18: Coastal Storm Developing

Discussion: The data has trended wetter and windier for Sunday’s coastal system brush. I’ll say right off the bat that areas along and NW of the Turnpike will likely see minimal impacts if any. Areas along the SENJ/ECNJ coast however are subject to heavier rain and stronger winds. We have building h

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/18/2019

Watching a Coastal Storm (Oct 18-20)

Discussion: A trough will move out with the departing nor’easter. But not before keeping the region colder and still-breezy tonight (Thursday) through part of Friday. Upper-level heights should then build from Saturday through Tuesday. This should keep it dry with sunny highs in the 60s except for S

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/16/2019

Oct 16: Coastal Storm Begins

Discussion: Our coastal storm is just getting started. The upper-level low is intensifying over the Great Lakes with an initial surface low directly underneath. This Great Lakes surface low will transfer to the surface energy currently moving up the coast (over NC/SC). The end result will be a full

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/15/2019

Oct 15: Coastal Storm Approaching

Discussion: Our coastal storm players are on the field. You can see the energy across the SE US (just N of the Gulf Coast) which will turn and track up the coast and interact with the strong Upper-Level Low (ULL). As I’ve said leading into this storm system, coastal New England should take the worst

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/15/2019

Oct 14: Coastal Storm Developing

Discussion: Another October coastal storm is about to develop and hit coastal New England. This is the long-range storm signal that showed up a little over a week ago and with good reason. The upper-levels have remained impressively modeled well into the mid-range forecasting period. I’m seeing some

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/14/2019

Another Fall Smack (Oct 14-18)

Discussion: The original October 18-22 storm signal will actually come into fruition but not for the Mid-Atlantic US…rather for the NorthEast US for Oct 17-18. It was a solid signal which is comforting to see re: long-range ensemble performance. First we’ll see fairly flat/zonal upper-level flow (W

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/11/2019

Subtropical Storm Melissa Departs (Oct 12-14)

Discussion: Our offshore storm system has been named Subtropical Storm Melissa. Quite honestly she has worn out her welcome especially for coastal residents. She is still providing elevated tides and even a few fringe showers to extreme ECNJ/SENJ today. Melissa will continue to pull away to the E an

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/09/2019

Oct 8: Coastal Storm Approaching

Discussion: After reviewing 24 more hours of model guidance and live observations I think we’re locking onto a more defined solution for the coastal storm. The offshore storm system is approaching now and I’d like to break the impacts down as follows:Rain: Between now and Saturday morning most model

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 10/08/2019

Oct 7: Coastal Storm Developing

Discussion: October is traditionally known for coastal storms and nor’easters. The NJ-latitude Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 10 degrees cooler than they were just 4-6 weeks ago and therefore are harder to sustain warmer tropical cores. It’s not impossible for a hurricane landfall in Octo

  Jonathan Carr