Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 07/10/2020

Long-Range WeatherTrends360 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of July 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/10/2020

Conditions to Improve (July 10-12)

Discussion: A quick update on the “Tropical Storm” currently impacting NJ. Most conditions are going as expected regarding rain, wind and coastal flooding. I’m not sure we’ll reach tropical storm intensity but whatever. Either way this is much needed rainfall for areas heading towards a drought. Rig

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/09/2020

July 9: Coastal Storm Approaching

Discussion: Our coastal system is organizing just SE of Bald Head Island, NC (S OBX). The latest trends in model guidance indicate the system riding slightly further W up the back of the ridge which will be located over NE US/SE Canada at the time of peak impact. This would mean a surface low track

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/08/2020

July 8: Coastal Disturbance Detected

Discussion: A low pressure disturbance is currently forming on the coastal border of North and South Carolina. We’re not talking about a powerful system but organized enough to bring nuisance-to-mildly-disruptive conditions to the E US coast (OBX to NYC) between tonight and Friday. Model guidance ne

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/06/2020

The Heat is On (July 6-10)

Discussion: The upper-jet should remain positioned well to the N of NJ this week. 500mb height anomalies should stay slightly positive (ridging) for the E US. At the surface this spells out more warm, humid and slightly unsettled conditions…meaning mostly sun and clouds but certainly the chance for

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/03/2020

Warm and Humid (July 3-5)

Discussion: First of all, my family would like to wish everyone a Happy 4th of July! The upper-levels still indicate the steep progressive trough nearby to our E and NE. There’s also a correlating surface low to our E but all of this is about to slip away further to the E, allowing traditional ridgi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/29/2020

Summery Conditions (June 29-July 3)

Discussion: An area of low pressure off coastal New England will dominate the pattern through about Thursday of this week. This will provide periods of northerly flow to New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic US which will not allow record-type heat. We should still get warm though with plenty of humidity

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/26/2020

Warm, Humid and Slightly Unsettled (June 26-28)

Discussion: The upper-jet looks scrambled a bit (meridionally) over our region this weekend and next week. A few week and progressive troughs are continuing to break off the front of the overall ridge jet dip to our N and NE. Otherwise we would be under a very hot ridge. These positive-axis anomalie

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/22/2020

Hot Start (June 22-26)

Discussion: The upper-jet is pretty far N of NJ. I don’t need to tell you that the surface warm front is through. It should stay this way through Wednesday with NJ firmly planted in a warm sector. Sometime in the ~Wednesday period a cold front should push through as a dry disintegrating precipitatio

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/18/2020

Warm and Unsettled (June 19-21)

Discussion: The upper-level low that broke off of last week’s trough has been churning over the interior S Mid-Atlantic/SE US for most of this week as expected. The ridge over SE Canada and NE US, however, has been obliterating the ULL and it is now close to fizzling out completely. It will likely t

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/11/2020

Conditions Improve (June 12-14)

Discussion: We’ve got an active upper-jet pattern in place for the next week or so. Cristobal’s remnants have formed a post-tropical cyclone in E Canada with a frontal boundary attached to it’s S. This frontal boundary is what currently moved through NJ today bringing showers and thunderstorms. Behi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/08/2020

Pleasant Start. Humidity Returns (June 8-12)

Discussion: The upper jet should stay to the N of NJ this week in a sea of ridging. The first part of this week features NW flow on the front of the ridge and the last-half, SW flow from the back-side of the ridge. By this weekend it looks like the upper-jet will be pushed S over NJ in a trough form

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/05/2020

More Storms then Nice (June 5-7)

Discussion: For tonight, we remain in a warm and muggy pattern mostly from the back-side return flow of high pressure near Bermuda. This flow has coupled with weak anticyclonic energy to our W to form W/SW flow across the Appalachian Mountains. As air passes over the Apps it condenses and then re-ex

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/03/2020

June 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of June 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/03/2020

June 3: Thunderstorms Approaching!

Discussion: We’ve had a warm front come through and that’s why today feels warmer and more humid. A cold front is expected to push through overnight tonight but that leaves a very warm and unstable environment today with the warm front still close by to our immediate NE. Solar/diurnal instability sh

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/29/2020

Unsettled Start. Beautiful Finish (May 29-31)

Discussion: A NW upper jet should be nearby NJ for the foreseeable near future. We’re going to build a trough slowly between Saturday and Sunday which should flex Sunday-Tuesday before heights rise Wednesday-forward. High pressure has remained nearly stationary the last few days just N of Bermuda. T

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/25/2020

Warmer Conditions Expected (May 26-29)

Discussion: Happy Memorial Day everyone! A moment of silence, appreciation and gratitude to those who have fallen to protect our amazing way of life… The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ through at least Friday. This will correlate with above-average 500mb geopotential height anomalies for the E

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/22/2020

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

Discussion: We currently have an upper level low over KY/TN weakening as it is colliding with strong ridging over SE Canada/NE US. It if fizzled out completely we would not have a worry about nuisance precipitation Friday-Saturday. But it does look to pass over NJ as a much weaker upper level distur

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/17/2020

Unsettled Conditions (May 18-22)

Discussion: Rough ocean conditions should have the headline this week despite much better conditions inland and away from water. The upper jet should stay way to the N of NJ this week. Normally this would produce a heat wave sea of ridging however we have a closed-off upper-level low and tropical cy

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/14/2020

The Warm Season Begins (May 15-17)

Discussion: Some passing isolated showers later today/tonight but no big deal. The warm season has begun! The weekend looks pretty good Friday through Sunday AM however there is lots to discuss. Upper-level 250mb analysis indicates the jet staying to the N of NJ with the exception of next Tuesday-Th

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/11/2020

The Good Stuff is Coming (May 11-15)

Discussion: The upper-jet is now over NJ and will eventually move N of NJ by Thursday with a correlating air mass of above-average 500mb geopotential height anomalies (ridging) over NJ. That warmer upper-level pattern then looks to sustain for the foreseeable future. At the surface we have some lift

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/07/2020

Snow? (May 8-10)

Discussion: Upper-level analysis indicates the jet staying S of NJ this weekend in the continued-E US trough pattern with abnormally low 500mb geopotential height anomalies. If this was winter the snow lovers would be excited. But it’s not. The sun angle is approaching annular peak (June) and climat

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/03/2020

Cool and Unsettled (May 4-8)

Discussion: I’ve seen happier outlooks for the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US before. 250mb and 500mb analysis indicates the upper-jet staying over or S of NJ with prolonged upper-level troughing as far as I can comfortably see. This means below-average temperatures and generally unsettled conditions

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/03/2020

May 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of May 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are

  Jonathan Carr