Nov 25: Wild Dynamics Detected
Jonathan Carr on 11/26/2020

Nov 25: Wild Dynamics Detected

Discussion: Some pretty wild atmospheric dynamics are showing up on model guidance for next week as we leave November and enter meteorological winter. Let’s talk a little about the teleconnection oscillations first, specifically the three which impact the E US most.The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a g

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (Nov 23-27)
Jonathan Carr on 11/23/2020

Mixed Conditions (Nov 23-27)

Discussion: A meridional but progressive upper jet pattern is expected this week. Height anomalies indicate back-and-forth positive and negative as thin and quick moving troughs and ridges try to establish with a cut-off upper level low or two. At the surface we have rain currently (Monday morning)

  Jonathan Carr
Mild Conditions (Nov 20-22)
Jonathan Carr on 11/20/2020

Mild Conditions (Nov 20-22)

Discussion: A zonal upper jet and positive geopotential height anomalies should dominate the weekend. At the surface that means mild temperatures without disturbance. Friday and Saturday looks the mildest as flow starts out of the S/SW and rocks to W/NW. Sunday should be cloudier and cooler (but not

  Jonathan Carr
Nov 17: Cold Temperatures Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 11/17/2020

Nov 17: Cold Temperatures Approaching

Discussion: Sunday night’s cold front was on the front of the trough that we (and most of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US) are now underneath. This means low geopotential heights and a condensed cooler lower atmosphere. Today, an upper level disturbance moved through, on the S side of the trough/jet,

  Jonathan Carr
Colder Conditions (Nov 16-20)
Jonathan Carr on 11/15/2020

Colder Conditions (Nov 16-20)

Discussion: The upper jet will be dipping S of NJ from tonight through about Thursday morning. This will allow below average 500mb geopotential height anomalies to build over NJ in said period. At the surface this means a much colder setup than what we’ve recently experienced in the first half of No

  Jonathan Carr
Nov 15: Windy Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 11/15/2020

Nov 15: Windy Conditions

Discussion: When I was younger, before I studied the science of meteorology, I would falsely associate prolonged wind events in the months of spring and fall. I thought these events, for said periods, were the seasons blowing in and out. Strong S/SW winds of spring came before warming (ultimately tr

  Jonathan Carr
Dry and Cooler (Nov 13-15)
Jonathan Carr on 11/12/2020

Dry and Cooler (Nov 13-15)

Discussion: Current rain is associated with an unorganized area of frontal precipitation stemming ultimately from Tropical Storm Eta departing the coastal SE US area. This should all move out by noon, at the latest, on Friday with high pressure establishing over Ohio and tracking over NJ into the At

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (Nov 9-13)
Jonathan Carr on 11/08/2020

Mixed Conditions (Nov 9-13)

Discussion: A strong E US ridge should continue to dominate the pattern through Wednesday morning. This obviously keeps the 250mb jet to the N of NJ with warm/mild high pressure-driven surface conditions beneath. The high pressure that brought us beautiful blue skies, mild temperatures, and dry sink

  Jonathan Carr
Beautiful Conditions Continue (Nov 6-8)
Jonathan Carr on 11/06/2020

Beautiful Conditions Continue (Nov 6-8)

Discussion: The 250mb jet should remain well to the N of NJ this weekend and part of next week. A 500mb ridge and surface area of high pressure will correlate with this at the levels beneath. This means mild temperatures and mostly clear skies for said period (including all of this weekend). The Wed

  Jonathan Carr
Cold Start. Mild Finish (Nov 2-6)
Jonathan Carr on 11/01/2020

Cold Start. Mild Finish (Nov 2-6)

Discussion: A meridional dip in the upper jet will dominate the region with a colder pattern from Sunday night (tonight) through Tuesday. We might be looking at the coldest shot of air yet this season. But first let’s talk about the trough approach. Low pressure tracking through SE Canada is respons

  Jonathan Carr
Colder Conditions (Oct 30-Nov 1)
Jonathan Carr on 10/29/2020

Colder Conditions (Oct 30-Nov 1)

Discussion: Two dips in the jet (troughs) should push through NJ in the near future. One Friday and another Monday-Tuesday. Said days will therefore feel noticeably colder. Between the dips should be some moderation for Saturday and Sunday but still cooler temps overall. We’re only looking at a rela

  Jonathan Carr
Oct 27: First Snow for NJ Elevations?
Jonathan Carr on 10/27/2020

Oct 27: First Snow for NJ Elevations?

Discussion: Tropical Storm ZETA should intensify into a hurricane by tomorrow (Wednesday) morning before making landfall later tomorrow evening in the coastal Louisiana area. After that, ZETA will quickly lose it’s tropical characteristics and transition into a mid-latitude cyclone while tracking ov

  Jonathan Carr
Wet Conditions (Oct 26-30)
Jonathan Carr on 10/25/2020

Wet Conditions (Oct 26-30)

Discussion: Nothing remarkably anomalous in the upper-levels (jet or geo heights). The current disturbance will continue to bring rain Sunday overnight into Monday morning. SENJ seeing more moisture than NWNJ. Tuesday and Wednesday look the least wet this week but still a chance for light rain, driz

  Jonathan Carr
More Transition (Oct 23-25)
Jonathan Carr on 10/23/2020

More Transition (Oct 23-25)

Discussion: Hurricane Epsilon is currently churning in the Atlantic Ocean just to the E of Bermuda. It presents no threat to the US east coast aside from some far-reaching coastal rip currents. The most significant player for our region, in the near future, is the approaching cold front attached to

  Jonathan Carr
Dry and Mild (Oct 20-23)
Jonathan Carr on 10/20/2020

Dry and Mild (Oct 20-23)

Discussion: The upper jet should stay to the N of NJ this week with positive 500mb geopotential anomalies in place through the weekend. This should keep conditions dry with above average temperatures through at least Saturday. Thursday looks like the warmest day of the week. No synoptic or frontal p

  Jonathan Carr
Wet Start but Mostly Cool and Dry (Oct 16-18)
Jonathan Carr on 10/16/2020

Wet Start but Mostly Cool and Dry (Oct 16-18)

Discussion: An upper-level trough will swing through the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US this weekend. On Friday there should be enough divergence aloft correlating with an area of positive vorticity advection to power a weak coastal low at the surface. This weak low should push through along the fron

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (Oct 12-16)
Jonathan Carr on 10/12/2020

Mixed Conditions (Oct 12-16)

Discussion: The upper levels appear very zonal for this week. Once the rainy remnants of Delta clear out by Tuesday afternoon (Sunday night through Tuesday morning are wet and breezy), Wednesday and Thursday look seasonably mild and rather uneventful. On Friday we’re looking at a solid frontal passa

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (Oct 9-11)
Jonathan Carr on 10/08/2020

Mixed Conditions (Oct 9-11)

Discussion: It looks like tonight will be another cold one as high pressure remains to our immediate W—delivering N/NW anti-cyclonic flow into the coldest part of the overnight (Friday AM). The high should move offshore by Saturday, reversing the flow to a warmer and juicier air mass for Saturday an

  Jonathan Carr
Mild Start. Chilly Finish (Oct 5-9)
Jonathan Carr on 10/05/2020

Mild Start. Chilly Finish (Oct 5-9)

Discussion: A weak and transient ridge should build over the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US between Monday and Wednesday. This should produce milder temperatures at the surface with light SW winds. A cold front is then expected to pass through later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This should

  Jonathan Carr
Cool and Dry (Oct 3-4)
Jonathan Carr on 10/03/2020

Cool and Dry (Oct 3-4)

Discussion: The upper pattern looks very meridional in foreseeable model guidance. While nothing specific is currently showing, I’d be surprised if a synoptic scale system didn’t materialize for the Mid-Atlantic US, whether just a baby coastal low or stronger nor’easter. Spidey sense in my gut is bu

  Jonathan Carr
Long-Range WeatherTrends360 Outlook
Jonathan Carr on 10/02/2020

Long-Range WeatherTrends360 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of October 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data

  Jonathan Carr
Transitional Conditions (Sept 28-Oct 2)
Jonathan Carr on 09/28/2020

Transitional Conditions (Sept 28-Oct 2)

Discussion: For the next few days we’ll be stuck in a warm sector formed by high pressure out in the Atlantic and the approaching trough. The high will kick in warm and humid return flow. The front of the trough will feature several unorganized disturbances with decent rainfall. With that said, Mond

  Jonathan Carr
One Last Time (Sept 26-27)
Jonathan Carr on 09/25/2020

One Last Time (Sept 26-27)

Discussion: For this weekend there’s not much to speak of other than a weakening upper-level disturbance floating through the return flow of departing high pressure. For these reasons, Saturday and Sunday could feature some very isolated rain showers but not heavy and nowhere near a washout. Otherwi

  Jonathan Carr
Stellar Conditions (Sept 21-25)
Jonathan Carr on 09/21/2020

Stellar Conditions (Sept 21-25)

Discussion: High pressure, in general, will continue to dominate the Mid-Atlantic US weather pattern this week. This means dry sinking air region-wide and ultimately pleasant and sunny at the surface. As high pressure drifts around the E US we’ll see different anti-cyclonic wind conditions resulting

  Jonathan Carr