Fall Weather Holds Serve
Jonathan Carr on 09/28/2021

Fall Weather Holds Serve

Discussion: The upper-level pattern this week features a trough centered just to our E (ULL over Maine/SE Canada) and a steep ridge just to our W in NC US/SC Canada. This will keep the upper-level flow out of the NW and W/NW for NJ. At the lower levels we’ll have high pressure just to our W providin

  Jonathan Carr
Seasonal Transition
Jonathan Carr on 09/20/2021

Seasonal Transition

Discussion: We have a few players shaping our conditions this week. At the upper-levels we have a ridge (still over E US) moving away to the E. This ridge should influence NJ with some warmer temps and humidity through about Wednesday. We’ll then have a trough move in for Thursday which should begin

  Jonathan Carr
Improving Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 09/16/2021

Improving Conditions

Discussion: Invest 96L is currently sitting between the US and Bermuda at Georgia latitude. Whether or not it organizes into a named system is another story. But for today and tomorrow, it will impact the Jersey shore with higher surf and enhanced rip currents. It will not pass close enough to bring

  Jonathan Carr
Summery Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 09/13/2021

Summery Conditions

Discussion: A prolonged series of ridging should establish over the E US over the next 10 days or so. This will keep temps slightly warmer than average with above-average humidity. We should see several thunderstorms chances in this period. Not seeing a relieving cold front until closer to next week

  Jonathan Carr
A True Early Taste of Fall
Jonathan Carr on 09/09/2021

A True Early Taste of Fall

Discussion: Despite what you might have read online, the rain and thunderstorms last night into today were associated with a typical slow moving cold front attached to a low tracking through Canada, and reinforced by weak low pressure sliding along the front today. They WERE NOT from Hurricane Larry

  Jonathan Carr
A Nice Stretch of Weather
Jonathan Carr on 09/07/2021

A Nice Stretch of Weather

Discussion: Tuesday should be another great day like Monday. Wednesday we’ll see humidity build a little and then rain and thunderstorms likely Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday AM (slow moving cold front). This front could bring flash flooding rainfall and severe thunderstorms. Thursday looks

  Jonathan Carr
Much Improvement!
Jonathan Carr on 09/02/2021

Much Improvement!

Discussion: Last night was just crazy. It rained like the Book of Genesis in NNJ/CNJ and the scariest NJ tornado imagery I’ve seen yet came out of SWNJ/WCNJ. SENJ was very lucky to not experience the funky tropical cyclone remnant energy that we’ve sort of gotten used to in the last few years. My th

  Jonathan Carr
Ida Remnants Approaching NJ
Jonathan Carr on 08/31/2021

Ida Remnants Approaching NJ

Discussion: Ida has absorbed into the approaching trough and developing front. It is now well on its way into extra-tropical transition which means it is now a cold core mid-latitude cyclone, with frontal boundaries developing, rather than a warm core tropical cyclone.We’ve dealt with a few tropical

  Jonathan Carr
Great Weather on the Horizon
Jonathan Carr on 08/30/2021

Great Weather on the Horizon

Discussion: Words cannot describe some of the imagery and hardship coming out of Louisiana after yesterday’s category 4 landfall. It hurts to think about. If I can help anyone in any way down there, please let me know. Out thoughts and positive vibes for healing and recovering are with you! Ida will

  Jonathan Carr
Tracking Ida’s Remnants for NJ
Jonathan Carr on 08/28/2021

Tracking Ida’s Remnants for NJ

Discussion: Ida is a major hurricane (now category 3) in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, where the water is warmest and the shear has reduced. It’s nothing but a favorable environment for further intensification, possibly into a category 4 prior to landfall. The primary steering mechanism for Ida

  Jonathan Carr
More Unsettled Muggy Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 08/26/2021

More Unsettled Muggy Conditions

Weekend Discussion: Our weekend NJ weather pattern will be governed mostly by upper-level ridging in the E US under an upper-jet stream far to the N of NJ. At the surface this means more 90s Friday but not as warm Saturday and Sunday given light onshore flow. Regardless of temps, the humidity is goi

  Jonathan Carr
Conditions to Improve
Jonathan Carr on 08/23/2021

Conditions to Improve

Discussion: That was some weekend. Henri’s primary winds missed NJ and instead hit coastal New England before moving through CT into NY State. New Jersey never saw the destructive winds. The surprise was rainfall amounts. I thought for sure that at least a few inches of rainfall was possible in the

  Jonathan Carr
Fringe Impact Only from Henri
Jonathan Carr on 08/21/2021

Fringe Impact Only from Henri

Discussion: Henri is a category 1 hurricane now at OBX latitude about 350 miles offshore. He will now take a slow and gradual turn to the N/NW towards Long Island and likely make landfall on Sunday as either a strong Tropical Storm or weak category 1 hurricane.The last 24 hours of model guidance hav

  Jonathan Carr
Henri to Impact New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 08/20/2021

Henri to Impact New Jersey

Discussion: Henri is currently at Savannah, GA latitude and about 74W longitude. He’s made the turn to the N and is now heading N/NW. I now expect him to turn a little more to the N/NE and parallel the US coast until about OBX latitude (a few hundred miles offshore).From the OBX latitude location, i

  Jonathan Carr
Henri Could Impact New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 08/19/2021

Henri Could Impact New Jersey

Discussion: Henri is currently a tropical storm near 30N 70W (between Bermuda and Florida – at Jacksonville, FL latitude). Henri is expected to turn to the N and follow the developing upper level ridge weakness in SE Canada on Friday. It’s likely he will be upgraded to hurricane status by Friday nig

  Jonathan Carr
Regarding Henri
Jonathan Carr on 08/18/2021

Regarding Henri

Discussion: We have two things to talk about, Fred’s remnants and Henri’s track. Fred’s remnants are currently moving from West Virginia into SW PA. They should continue tracking NW across CPA today and then into New England Thursday into Friday. New Jersey impacts should be far less than PA. For to

  Jonathan Carr
Stormy and Muggy
Jonathan Carr on 08/16/2021

Stormy and Muggy

Discussion: The cold front sure took its time Saturday PM. It wasn’t until closer to sunrise Sunday morning that dews finally dropped to the comfortable zone. And IMHO Sunday was a few degrees warmer in both temp and dew point temp that I was expecting. I was thinking a 79/59 type day, not a 83/63 t

  Jonathan Carr
Hot Stormy Start then Improvement.
Jonathan Carr on 08/12/2021

Hot Stormy Start then Improvement.

Weekend Discussion: This weekend overall is straightforward. We’re warm-sectored until a cold front moves through and then we’re beautiful under high pressure behind the cold front. What is extremely uncertain is the timing of the cold front. There is disagreement on model guidance and therefore mor

  Jonathan Carr
Tropical Feel
Jonathan Carr on 08/09/2021

Tropical Feel

Discussion: The coastal surface low cleared out yesterday for most of NJ however took it’s time leaving extreme ENJ. Some impressive rainfall totals for SENJ. Today we have an upper-level disturbance floating through but it shouldn’t produce much precipitation. Normally, the backside of a cyclonic f

  Jonathan Carr
Heat and Humidity Return
Jonathan Carr on 08/06/2021

Heat and Humidity Return

Discussion: The key upper-level change for this weekend is the dissolution of the upper-level low/trough in the E US and the establishment of a weak ridge. This will allow the troposphere to expand (positive geopotential heights) and bring back the more traditional mid-summer feel rather than the la

  Jonathan Carr
Great Start. Unsettled Finish.
Jonathan Carr on 08/02/2021

Great Start. Unsettled Finish.

Discussion: New Jersey will be under an upper-level (250mb) jet streak for most of this week. The jet will be out of the SW or S/SW from the E side of a decaying trough (centered over TN/KY). High pressure will be keeping most of the region clear and nice at the surface for at least Monday-Tuesday,

  Jonathan Carr
Improvement!
Jonathan Carr on 07/30/2021

Improvement!

Discussion: That was some evening of severe weather last night! The National Weather Service at Mount Holly, NJ will be investigating several areas today where tornados likely touched down across parts of CNJ and SNJ. It was probably the tornado outbreak of 1998 where we last saw similar conditions

  Jonathan Carr
Thunderstorms Approaching!
Jonathan Carr on 07/29/2021

Thunderstorms Approaching!

Discussion: So far this morning’s warm frontal passage has been less than impressive. I woke up to a nice downpour in Ocean County but overall, precipitation has been lighter and there haven’t been any embedded thunderstorms with the first part of today’s expectations. The warm front is doing it’s j

  Jonathan Carr
Tomorrow Looks Stormy
Jonathan Carr on 07/28/2021

Tomorrow Looks Stormy

Discussion: Outside of a few possible isolated pop-ups (along sea breeze, etc.), we should remain mostly dry today. Temps are maxing in the low-to-mid 80s. Humidity is a little stickier in SENJ than NWNJ but overall manageable. We should also have a nice and clear night.Tomorrow, a warm front will f

  Jonathan Carr