Mixed Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 11/29/2021

Mixed Conditions

Discussion: The W US should see a prolonged ridge setup this week. Downstream, the E US should see a series of quick-swinging troughs pass through. With no high latitude blocking in the N Atlantic, any surface systems will be quick moving but are still capable of producing at least light precipitat

  Jonathan Carr
Cold with Light Snow Possible
Jonathan Carr on 11/27/2021

Cold with Light Snow Possible

Discussion: We can certainly feel the pressure gradient tonight between the NE US departing low and SE US approaching high. Stiff flow out of the W/NW and that’s making it feel colder than it already really is. This is the cold injection for the weekend and will make for a cold Saturday, especially

  Jonathan Carr
Tracking Late-Weekend Snow
Jonathan Carr on 11/24/2021

Tracking Late-Weekend Snow

Discussion: Real quick, we can expect more temperature moderation today through tomorrow with dry conditions for the holiday and related travel. Should feel quite nice for this time of year. This is because of high pressure drifting through the S Mid-Atlantic US. Late Thanksgiving night into Friday

  Jonathan Carr
Great for Travel
Jonathan Carr on 11/22/2021

Great for Travel

Discussion: Some solid upper-level trough features should push through the E US over the next week or so. Most of it looks cold and clear with just two frontal systems moving through. The first one is just clearing through this morning and the second should be Thursday night into Friday. This is mos

  Jonathan Carr
Volatile Conditions Continue
Jonathan Carr on 11/19/2021

Volatile Conditions Continue

Discussion: High pressure is currently approaching behind the cold front. This will reinforce a colder and windy flow for Friday and colder calm day Saturday. By Sunday the high should be over the ocean which will reverse the flow to the S…producing a milder Sunday into Monday. Another cold front is

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 11/15/2021

Mixed Conditions

Discussion: You all felt the cold front that came through Saturday night. That there was lightning and hail was a strong indicator of how cold the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere are becoming. It didn’t require much lift for moisture to condense, produce thermal friction, and fall as hail just

  Jonathan Carr
Transitional Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 11/11/2021

Transitional Conditions

Discussion: First, a thank you to all who have served our country! A low pressure system has pulled off the upper-jet with an occlusion at the surface. As this low tracks from the Great Lakes into SE Canada, it will rip an attached cold front through on Friday. The front could push rain and possibly

  Jonathan Carr
Mostly Nice Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 11/08/2021

Mostly Nice Conditions

Discussion: Low pressure is currently offshore but high pressure remains over NJ. A series of high pressure areas should produce a dry and comfortable Monday-Thursday this week. Mostly NW quadrant flow with lower dews but with a milder feel. Low pressure in SE Canada, will then drag a cold front thr

  Jonathan Carr
Cool and Dry
Jonathan Carr on 11/05/2021

Cool and Dry

Discussion: We have some unorganized low pressure in the nearby Atlantic Ocean that should fail to reach the NJ coast this weekend. It might keep ECNJ/SENJ cloudier than the rest of NJ at times…or perhaps you might just see the cloud edge offshore…but rain should stay away. On the NW side of this lo

  Jonathan Carr
Colder Air Arriving
Jonathan Carr on 11/01/2021

Colder Air Arriving

Discussion: A trough will spill into our region this week. The trough will have a positive axis with a progressive upper-level flow out of the W/SW for NJ. This flow will prevent any synoptic systems from wrapping up for our area…allowing an otherwise colder/clearer week than recent times. The only

  Jonathan Carr
Rainstorm Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 10/29/2021

Rainstorm Approaching

Discussion: The surface low is currently over the ~W Kentucky area and should continue to track NE up the Appalachian Mountain chain between now and Sunday morning.Conditions should deteriorate soon, especially for SNJ, as the leading edge of precipitation pushes into NJ from the S/SW. You can see i

  Jonathan Carr
Another Rainstorm Approaches
Jonathan Carr on 10/28/2021

Another Rainstorm Approaches

Discussion: A second synoptic-scale weather system will impact NJ to start this weekend. Therefore, we’ll just go with a discussion article format as the general weekend outlook for now. I’ll likely update tomorrow ahead of the first drops and make sure the Saturday-Sunday forecast is holding.For no

  Jonathan Carr
Crappy at Times
Jonathan Carr on 10/24/2021

Crappy at Times

Discussion: Overnight lows should fall and then halt tonight (Sunday night) as S flow takes over. This could initially present some fog but otherwise should produce a milder feel for tomorrow (Monday). We’re going to see two areas of upper-level low pressure this week, both amplified by upper jet st

  Jonathan Carr
Cooler Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 10/22/2021

Cooler Conditions

Discussion: A mostly dry frontal passage came through overnight…a few sprinkles here and there. This has lowered temps and humidity some for today. Still a beautiful day today but tonight we’ll step down colder. The upper-level disturbance I’ve been tracking for today into tomorrow seems much drier

  Jonathan Carr
Fall is Back
Jonathan Carr on 10/19/2021

Fall is Back

Discussion: A rather boring upper level look this week. Most of the drivers are at the lower levels. High pressure is currently over ~SC producing NW for NJ. As the high slides E over the next few days, it will produce W flow for Wednesday and SW flow for Thursday. This should warm temps back up int

  Jonathan Carr
Big Changes Coming
Jonathan Carr on 10/15/2021

Big Changes Coming

Discussion: I apologize for being somewhat absent and distracted the last few weeks. I’ve been working on a very important presentation that I gave yesterday demonstrating the 4D weather visualization technology that my company has spearheaded me to develop. Yesterday, there were attendees from the

  Jonathan Carr
I’ve Seen Better
Jonathan Carr on 10/08/2021

I’ve Seen Better

Discussion: Upper-level ridging over E Canada/E US will continue to dominate the weather pattern likely through next weekend. That means a string of above-average temperatures and conditions I generally dislike this time of year. The kind of weather that’s perfect for early spring warmth but not as

  Jonathan Carr
Is October the New September?
Jonathan Carr on 10/03/2021

Is October the New September?

Discussion: It sure seems like it anymore. And the same goes for September feeling like August. In recent times, it seems like summer’s heat and humidity have bleed into early fall. The crisp feel will inevitably come back but it seems as if it should already be sustained by now. It seems like most,

  Jonathan Carr
Fall Weather Holds Serve
Jonathan Carr on 09/27/2021

Fall Weather Holds Serve

Discussion: The upper-level pattern this week features a trough centered just to our E (ULL over Maine/SE Canada) and a steep ridge just to our W in NC US/SC Canada. This will keep the upper-level flow out of the NW and W/NW for NJ. At the lower levels we’ll have high pressure just to our W providin

  Jonathan Carr
Seasonal Transition
Jonathan Carr on 09/20/2021

Seasonal Transition

Discussion: We have a few players shaping our conditions this week. At the upper-levels we have a ridge (still over E US) moving away to the E. This ridge should influence NJ with some warmer temps and humidity through about Wednesday. We’ll then have a trough move in for Thursday which should begin

  Jonathan Carr
Improving Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 09/16/2021

Improving Conditions

Discussion: Invest 96L is currently sitting between the US and Bermuda at Georgia latitude. Whether or not it organizes into a named system is another story. But for today and tomorrow, it will impact the Jersey shore with higher surf and enhanced rip currents. It will not pass close enough to bring

  Jonathan Carr
Summery Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 09/13/2021

Summery Conditions

Discussion: A prolonged series of ridging should establish over the E US over the next 10 days or so. This will keep temps slightly warmer than average with above-average humidity. We should see several thunderstorms chances in this period. Not seeing a relieving cold front until closer to next week

  Jonathan Carr
A True Early Taste of Fall
Jonathan Carr on 09/09/2021

A True Early Taste of Fall

Discussion: Despite what you might have read online, the rain and thunderstorms last night into today were associated with a typical slow moving cold front attached to a low tracking through Canada, and reinforced by weak low pressure sliding along the front today. They WERE NOT from Hurricane Larry

  Jonathan Carr
A Nice Stretch of Weather
Jonathan Carr on 09/07/2021

A Nice Stretch of Weather

Discussion: Tuesday should be another great day like Monday. Wednesday we’ll see humidity build a little and then rain and thunderstorms likely Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday AM (slow moving cold front). This front could bring flash flooding rainfall and severe thunderstorms. Thursday looks

  Jonathan Carr