Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 09/21/2020

Stellar Conditions (Sept 21-25)

Discussion: High pressure, in general, will continue to dominate the Mid-Atlantic US weather pattern this week. This means dry sinking air region-wide and ultimately pleasant and sunny at the surface. As high pressure drifts around the E US we’ll see different anti-cyclonic wind conditions resulting

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/17/2020

Fall Arrives Early (Sept 18-20)

Discussion: We’ll see some of the coolest air of the late-year so far this weekend. Complete high pressure dominance from Friday PM well into next week. This means lower temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least NWNJ, and possibly more of NJ, dip into the

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/14/2020

Cooler Conditions (Sept 14-18)

Discussion: There’s nothing much to talk about in the upper levels. Just some zonal W flow for most of the week. The primary drivers of NJ’s weather pattern will be two areas of high pressure. They will both originate from Canada and therefore bring cooler temps and lower humidity to the region. The

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/11/2020

Cool and Cloudy (Sept 11-13)

Discussion: The tropics are on fire, as they should be this time of year. There are 4 systems currently being tracked by the National Hurricane Center. Two of them look to remain out to sea (Paulette and Rene – as of now). Invest 96L looks to cross S Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The onl

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/07/2020

Summer Continues Fading (Sept 8-11)

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ this weekend. 500mb geopotential heights should back in from the E/NE and build over the E US—flexing ~Thursday AM before upper-flow becomes more W/NW instead of W/SW. This should produce warmer and more humid conditions for the surface from Tuesd

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/04/2020

Long-Range WeatherTrends360 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of September 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this dat

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 09/04/2020

A Gorgeous Holiday Weekend (Sept 4-7)

Discussion: The upper jet should stay just to the N of NJ through this weekend and into next week before forming a meridional pattern by mid-next week. 500mb analysis indicates average heights until a ridge backs in, off the Atlantic Ocean, over the Mid-Atlantic and NE US. This should happen as the

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/31/2020

Unsettled Conditions (Aug 31-Sept 4)

Discussion: Upper-level flow will be heavily influenced by a SE US ridge between Bermuda and the mainland. The N jet should remain zonal but press against the SE US ridge’s N anti-cyclonic flow. The pattern doesn’t hint at becoming meridional until just outside the forecast comfort zone after this w

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/28/2020

Rough Start. Beautiful Finish (Aug 28-30)

Discussion: The upper-jet looks very flat and zonal this weekend. Upper-level geopotential heights look average to slightly-below average. While boring aloft, the lower-levels/surface conditions should respond as follows. Today we have the leading edge of unsettledness beginning by late-afternoon/ea

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/26/2020

Aug 26: Weekend Impacts from Hurricane Laura

Discussion: Laura is a category 4 (major) hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico heading for a landfall just on the LA side of the TX/LA gulf coast border later this evening. There’s actually a small chance of reaching category 5 prior to landfall but at this point it doesn’t matter. Destructive conditions

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/25/2020

Aug 25: Storm Front Approaching

Discussion: New Jersey is currently on the W (back) side of a trough that is primarily developing over SE Canada and NE US. A small upper-level disturbance is rounding the back-side of this trough which is enhancing the jet streak of the back-side trough bottom. With that said we have some stronger

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/24/2020

Mixed Conditions (Aug 24-28)

Discussion: Let’s first talk about the setup for NJ before we talk about the tropics. We currently have a progressive trough swinging through the NE US. It’s nose will push through the N Mid-Atlantic US (NJ) on Tuesday which could produce a severe storm front for NJ Tuesday PM. Since the frontal ene

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/21/2020

Summery Conditions (Aug 21-23)

Discussion: We have two upper-jets involved in this weekend’s pattern. The southern jet has formed a trough over the general interior SE US. The northern jet is a bit more zonal and should eventually take over as the primary for NJ. These two jets are merging from a split flow configuration just to

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/17/2020

Long-Range WeatherTrends360 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of August 2020 should play out as well as an early look at the first half of September 2020. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/17/2020

More Mixed Conditions (Aug 17-21)

Discussion: A shallow but sharp trough will swing through the region for the first half of the week. NJ will see SW flow aloft for Monday into Tuesday then NW flow aloft for Wednesday into Thursday. By Friday it’s back to W flow aloft. 500mb height anomalies and flow seem rather zonal despite the sl

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/13/2020

Mixed Conditions (Aug 14-16)

Discussion: To address today (Thursday, Aug 13) real quick, we still have an area of convergence along a near-stationary frontal boundary positioned right over the I-95/NJTP corridor. This is producing more near-stationary downpours and thunderstorms for CNJ and SNJ capable of producing flash floodi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/10/2020

Unsettled Conditions (Aug 10-14)

Discussion: Again, not much to speak of in the upper-levels. The upper-jet should stay well N of NJ with any jet streaks weak and zonal. 500mb height analysis indicates we’ll be under a weak ridge centered over SE Canada/NE US/N Mid-Atlantic US. At this surface this will allow us to get hot and humi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/06/2020

Small Window of Relief (Aug 7-9)

Discussion: There’s nothing really worth discussing in the upper-levels. 250mb jet analysis and 500mb geopotential height analysis indicate no major features to worry about. The main player this weekend will be an area of high pressure tracking from the Great Lakes to the OBX region of the Atlantic

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/04/2020

Aug 4: Isaias is Here

Discussion: Hope everyone is staying safe out there! The eye of Isaias remnants is currently moving from N Delaware into SWNJ. This will calm the winds for SWNJ but NNJ and CNJ will remain under gusty E winds while SENJ now experiences S winds of the former eastern eye wall. As the center of circula

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/03/2020

Aug 3: Tropical Storm Isaias Approaching

Discussion: Isaias is a strong tropical storm located just E of the SC/GA coastal border. Sustained winds were last recorded at 70mph with higher gusts. It has a small chance for slight intensification during its last breath over warm water. Tonight Isaias should make landfall somewhere near Charles

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/03/2020

Aug 2: Isaias Impact on NJ

Discussion: Isaias is currently just off the east coast of central Florida as a strong tropical storm. Its steering will now be heavily influenced by the trough spanning from the Great Lakes down through the TN valley. The front of this trough will provide N/NE flow which should take Isaias over NJ

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/31/2020

July 31: Isaias Impact on East Coast

Discussion: Earlier this week we started talking about a potential tropical threat for the east coast around August 5 from what was Invest 92L. Today this system is a category 1 hurricane named Isaias heading into the Bahamas. From its current location, it should track fairly close to the E Florida

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/31/2020

Mixed Conditions Likely (July 31-Aug 2)

Discussion: This weekend we will have a small developing ridge over the E US which won’t fully establish until Sunday. Today our rain is pushing away to the SE of NJ and conditions should improve during PM hours tonight (Friday). Saturday looks like highs in the 80s with dew point temperatures in th

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/26/2020

A Hair of Relief (July 27-31)

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ through Tuesday before dipping over NJ for Wednesday-Sunday. After Sunday it should return to the N of NJ for continued hazy, hot and humid ridging. So Monday and Tuesday should be more of the same (like this weekend) but then we are in for at lea

  Jonathan Carr