Summer Not Wasting Time
Jonathan Carr on 06/17/2021

Summer Not Wasting Time

Discussion: This weekend looks pretty summery. Upper-level flow out of the NW and lower-level flow out of the SW. That’s a recipe for warmth and humidity but not scorching temps. We’re talking about highs in the mid-to-upper 80s (some lower-90s away from the ocean), noticeable humidity, and comforta

  Jonathan Carr
Stormy Start then Improvement
Jonathan Carr on 06/14/2021

Stormy Start then Improvement

Discussion: We start out unsettled this week as a cold front drags through between Monday PM and Tuesday AM. This could bring strong-to-severe criteria thunderstorms to the region later today/tonight. Once that clears, the rest of the week will be dominated by high pressure slowly tracking from the

  Jonathan Carr
Slightly Unsettled
Jonathan Carr on 06/11/2021

Slightly Unsettled

Discussion: This weekend and next 10-day stretch or so appear similar. A generally unsettled period. I’m seeing a lot of lower geopotential height activity over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. A few progressive troughs in the NE US/SE Canada region nick us over the next 10 days. Mostly upper-leve

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 06/07/2021

Mixed Conditions

Discussion: High pressure should remain parked over Bermuda until at least Wednesday night. This will keep the SW flow in place over NJ from the return flow of the Bermuda high. This should make for hazy, hot, and humid conditions Monday and Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms possible in the aft

  Jonathan Carr
Heat Wave Detected
Jonathan Carr on 06/04/2021

Heat Wave Detected

Discussion: A very thin and progressive upper-level trough is moving through today (Friday) in the wake of the departing Thursday PM convergent-driven rainfall. This will keep conditions cloudy and unsettled for Friday while the upper-jet is still wrapped around the trough. Once that pushes E, a rid

  Jonathan Carr
Memorial Day Weekend Outlook
Jonathan Carr on 05/28/2021

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

Discussion: This is not a good overall weekend outlook. Monday is looking like the best day of the holiday period. Friday-Sunday is just ugh. So high pressure in SE Canada is currently tracking from just N of the Great Lakes towards the SE Canadian coast. A low will move from W to E across the Mid-A

  Jonathan Carr
May 26: Watching PM Thunderstorms
Jonathan Carr on 05/26/2021

May 26: Watching PM Thunderstorms

Discussion: No surprises on today being the hottest and most humid day of the week. We’ve got warm sector S/SW flow at most lower-mid levels pumping in humid air mass while the near-highest sun-angle of the year heats up the surface. There hasn’t been much thunderstorm action this year. But today we

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (May 24-28)
Jonathan Carr on 05/24/2021

Mixed Conditions (May 24-28)

Discussion: Areas of high pressure continue to dominate our pattern. A high is currently tracking from just N of the Great Lakes towards the Atlantic Ocean (over Cape Cod area). This will start everyone out with onshore flow (over 60-degree water) for Monday. The high sun-angle will take us up to ab

  Jonathan Carr
The Heat is On (May 21-23)
Jonathan Carr on 05/21/2021

The Heat is On (May 21-23)

Discussion: High pressure continues to dominate the E US setup in a prolonged upper-level ridge pattern. We’re going to see high pressure retrograde off the Atlantic Ocean Friday and make it as far W as Missouri on Saturday (rare). This area of high pressure should then return back to the E into the

  Jonathan Carr
Warm Conditions (May 17-21)
Jonathan Carr on 05/16/2021

Warm Conditions (May 17-21)

Discussion: This entire week looks like a ridge building pattern for NJ and much of the east coast. The 250mb jet should be positioned just to our NE coming down from Canada. Therefore, the 250mb S flow of the jet will be over C US—forming the big E US ridge. At the lower levels this means high pres

  Jonathan Carr
Pretty…Pretty…Good (May 14-16)
Jonathan Carr on 05/14/2021

Pretty…Pretty…Good (May 14-16)

Discussion: Nothing noteworthy in the upper levels for this weekend. The main player will be an area of high pressure slowly tracking from Ohio, over the N Mid-Atlantic US, and out into the Atlantic Ocean. It’s a good time to revisit the physics of high pressure. In the N Hemisphere it’s an anti-cyc

  Jonathan Carr
Cool Mixed Conditions (May 8-9)
Jonathan Carr on 05/08/2021

Cool Mixed Conditions (May 8-9)

Discussion: We should remain in a cooler pattern with temperatures below-average for another week. The Mid-Atlantic US, and most of the EC, cannot escape the relentless progressive trough pattern. At the very least this keeps us cool but also unsettled with clouds and rain. It looks like some ridgin

  Jonathan Carr
Unsettled Week (May 3-7)
Jonathan Carr on 05/03/2021

Unsettled Week (May 3-7)

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay close over NJ for the next week or so. This should keep geopotential heights anomalies near-average outside of a weak system on Friday. That will pull down some lower heights temporarily for Friday into early Sat AM but then back to business by Saturday late-mor

  Jonathan Carr
Unsettled Start. Nice Finish (April 30-May 2)
Jonathan Carr on 04/29/2021

Unsettled Start. Nice Finish (April 30-May 2)

Discussion: An unorganized synoptic system is passing by to our N tonight (Thursday night) through tomorrow (Friday AM). We’re in the warm sector now, closer to the low, which is why our skies are mild and cloudy with a few showers. It looks like a pre-frontal trough could spark heavier showers and

  Jonathan Carr
Early Whiff of Summer (April 26-30)
Jonathan Carr on 04/25/2021

Early Whiff of Summer (April 26-30)

Discussion: We’ll spend much of this week to the S of the upper-jet (in a ridge). Only the nose of a progressive trough should then swing through between Friday night and Sunday morning before ridging returns for next week. With the higher sun angle this time of year, this should spell out some warm

  Jonathan Carr
Not Bad (April 23-25)
Jonathan Carr on 04/22/2021

Not Bad (April 23-25)

Discussion: The positive axis trough pattern is about to end for the E US. It’s been relentlessly holding us slightly below average in temperature and in some cases (like last night/today) well below average. The 250mb jet should make its way back over NJ on Friday. There it will stay until called u

  Jonathan Carr
April 20: Thunderstorms Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 04/20/2021

April 20: Thunderstorms Approaching

Discussion: We’ve had a nice run of non-disruptive weather conditions. Tomorrow (Wednesday) that will likely come to an end with a stormy frontal passage. Low pressure will track through PA into New England (just to the NW of NJ) on Wednesday. Right now (late Tuesday night) we’re in the warm sector

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (April 19-23)
Jonathan Carr on 04/18/2021

Mixed Conditions (April 19-23)

Discussion: The upper level pattern of repeating positive-axis troughs, swinging from central Canada through the E US, will continue this week. Tuesday looks like the mildest day of the week from SW flow culmination ahead of the cold front. Wednesday night into Thursday looks like the coldest period

  Jonathan Carr
Conditions Improve (April 16-18)
Jonathan Carr on 04/16/2021

Conditions Improve (April 16-18)

Discussion: Lower 500mb heights should continue to dominate the pattern with trough after trough swinging down and in from central Canada through the US. Because the troughs feature a positive axis, nothing big can really spin up. It does however keep the region cooler (slightly below average) and u

  Jonathan Carr
Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)
Jonathan Carr on 04/11/2021

Slightly Unsettled (April 12-16)

Discussion: The upper levels this week have a very unsettled look. 500mb geopotential height anomalies should alternate between near-average to below-average. This means a lower general atmosphere (cooler aloft) which allows milder rising air and moisture (from higher-angle diurnal surface heating)

  Jonathan Carr
Comfortable Conditions (April 5-9)
Jonathan Carr on 04/04/2021

Comfortable Conditions (April 5-9)

Discussion: Not a lot going on this week. Monday through Thursday fall under the front side of a ridge. This should allow most locations to near-70 during the day and stay above 40 at night. Friday then looks a little cooler with more onshore flow involved. The ocean is warming but still in the mid-

  Jonathan Carr
Cold Start. Nice Finish (April 2-4)
Jonathan Carr on 04/01/2021

Cold Start. Nice Finish (April 2-4)

Discussion: High pressure to our W (over S IL/W KY) is currently producing cold NE quadrant anti-cyclonic flow over NJ. This is tapping colder Canadian air mass and giving us some wind to make it feel even colder in the trough on Friday. That high pressure should gradually track to the SE US (S of N

  Jonathan Carr
A Cold Dip (March 29-April 2)
Jonathan Carr on 03/28/2021

A Cold Dip (March 29-April 2)

Discussion: The upper-jet looks very wavy and meridional over the next week or so. The lows are obviously not dipping as far S anymore as our p-types have been mostly rain and driven by cold frontal passages to the S of the lows. But that’s what happens in Spring as the polar jet in-general pulls N

  Jonathan Carr
Unsettled Conditions (March 26-28)
Jonathan Carr on 03/26/2021

Unsettled Conditions (March 26-28)

Discussion: Most of our pattern, this weekend into next week, will be heavily influenced by a few low pressure systems passing to our far NW. There’s one right now dragging a mostly-dry cold front through. Today, we’re experiencing the warm sector mild flow (just head of the front) that’s spiking af

  Jonathan Carr