Great Start. Unsettled Finish.
Jonathan Carr on 07/23/2021

Great Start. Unsettled Finish.

Discussion: The bottom of a very positive axis trough is currently overhead and will dominate much of the Friday-Saturday pattern with NW flow aloft. Upper-level flow will return to more of a W/NW direction once geopotential heights relax after the trough departure (Sunday). At the lower levels we h

  Jonathan Carr
Relief!
Jonathan Carr on 07/19/2021

Relief!

Discussion: This week we’ll see average to just below-average geopotential heights. The stubborn W US ridge will really flex this week forcing troughing in the E US. Therefore, we’re cooler and drier this week in the E US but still just a hair unsettled. The most immediate change you should notice i

  Jonathan Carr
Hot and Unsettled
Jonathan Carr on 07/15/2021

Hot and Unsettled

Discussion: Higher geopotential heights with an upper-jet to our N (thanks to the Bermuda high return flow) should control the pattern to start this weekend. At the surface, NJ will be warm-sectored Friday and Saturday. This means relentless humidity and high temperatures pushing to at least 90. Thi

  Jonathan Carr
A Triple H Week
Jonathan Carr on 07/12/2021

A Triple H Week

Discussion: The upper-jet will stay well to the N of NJ this week, as it commonly does with summertime ridging pumped by a Bermuda high. We’ve been stuck in a W US ridge pattern however the Bermuda high has been pumping a ridge for the E US too. The C US has no choice but to trough and produce SW f

  Jonathan Carr
Conditions Improve. Humidity Lingers.
Jonathan Carr on 07/09/2021

Conditions Improve. Humidity Lingers.

Discussion: Elsa moved through about as expected. Overall? A widespread run-of-mill overnight rain and wind event that we’ve seen many times before. Some SENJ locations finished with close to three inches of rain while areas like NWNJ failed to reach a half-inch. Everyone between generally ranged be

  Jonathan Carr
Into the Unknown
Jonathan Carr on 07/08/2021

Into the Unknown

Discussion: Elsa is barely hanging onto tropical storm criteria with maximum sustained winds at 40mph with gusts to 45mph. She’s currently near the east-central border of NC/SC with rain bands extended as far N as Virginia (approaching S tip of Delmarva). Elsa’s core should track across E VA, Delmar

  Jonathan Carr
Rain and Wind Never Bothered me Anyway.
Jonathan Carr on 07/07/2021

Rain and Wind Never Bothered me Anyway.

Discussion: Remnants of a once Hurricane Elsa will take a pass at New Jersey this Thursday night into Friday morning. Else originally entered the W Caribbean/Lesser Antilles, crossed some of the Caribbean Sea and tucked up into SW Florida. It’s not a historic or even major hurricane. It’s actually w

  Jonathan Carr
There’s a Chance
Jonathan Carr on 06/30/2021

There’s a Chance

Discussion: A rather impressive upper jet should push over NJ early this weekend. This should come along the front-side of a positive axis trough that’s swinging down into our region from the N. This trough then slowly becomes neutral while moving over NJ and eventually out of the region by Monday n

  Jonathan Carr
Sticky Icky Icky
Jonathan Carr on 06/28/2021

Sticky Icky Icky

Discussion: June is going to finish hot and sticky for NJ. Meteorologically we have a ridge in the NW US and NE US. A weak trough currently sits in the central US. You might have heard about the record heat associated with the W US ridge. The E US ridge is not as hot at the surface but we’re defini

  Jonathan Carr
Another Heat Wave
Jonathan Carr on 06/25/2021

Another Heat Wave

Discussion: A ridge will begin flexing over the North East and Mid-Atlantic US this weekend. It might be Thursday before it relaxes. This ridge will be driven into by high pressure stubbornly hugging the Bermuda area. At the surface in NJ this should produce temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s with d

  Jonathan Carr
Stormy Start. Improvement by Mid-Week.
Jonathan Carr on 06/21/2021

Stormy Start. Improvement by Mid-Week.

Discussion: The front side of an approaching upper-level trough should keep the region unsettled today and tomorrow surrounding a cold front passage at the surface. Today (Monday) we should feel the heat and humidity build in the core of the warm sector. Tomorrow (Tuesday) we should feel the relief

  Jonathan Carr
Summer Not Wasting Time
Jonathan Carr on 06/17/2021

Summer Not Wasting Time

Discussion: This weekend looks pretty summery. Upper-level flow out of the NW and lower-level flow out of the SW. That’s a recipe for warmth and humidity but not scorching temps. We’re talking about highs in the mid-to-upper 80s (some lower-90s away from the ocean), noticeable humidity, and comforta

  Jonathan Carr
Stormy Start then Improvement
Jonathan Carr on 06/14/2021

Stormy Start then Improvement

Discussion: We start out unsettled this week as a cold front drags through between Monday PM and Tuesday AM. This could bring strong-to-severe criteria thunderstorms to the region later today/tonight. Once that clears, the rest of the week will be dominated by high pressure slowly tracking from the

  Jonathan Carr
Slightly Unsettled
Jonathan Carr on 06/11/2021

Slightly Unsettled

Discussion: This weekend and next 10-day stretch or so appear similar. A generally unsettled period. I’m seeing a lot of lower geopotential height activity over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. A few progressive troughs in the NE US/SE Canada region nick us over the next 10 days. Mostly upper-leve

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 06/07/2021

Mixed Conditions

Discussion: High pressure should remain parked over Bermuda until at least Wednesday night. This will keep the SW flow in place over NJ from the return flow of the Bermuda high. This should make for hazy, hot, and humid conditions Monday and Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms possible in the aft

  Jonathan Carr
Heat Wave Detected
Jonathan Carr on 06/04/2021

Heat Wave Detected

Discussion: A very thin and progressive upper-level trough is moving through today (Friday) in the wake of the departing Thursday PM convergent-driven rainfall. This will keep conditions cloudy and unsettled for Friday while the upper-jet is still wrapped around the trough. Once that pushes E, a rid

  Jonathan Carr
Memorial Day Weekend Outlook
Jonathan Carr on 05/28/2021

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

Discussion: This is not a good overall weekend outlook. Monday is looking like the best day of the holiday period. Friday-Sunday is just ugh. So high pressure in SE Canada is currently tracking from just N of the Great Lakes towards the SE Canadian coast. A low will move from W to E across the Mid-A

  Jonathan Carr
May 26: Watching PM Thunderstorms
Jonathan Carr on 05/26/2021

May 26: Watching PM Thunderstorms

Discussion: No surprises on today being the hottest and most humid day of the week. We’ve got warm sector S/SW flow at most lower-mid levels pumping in humid air mass while the near-highest sun-angle of the year heats up the surface. There hasn’t been much thunderstorm action this year. But today we

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (May 24-28)
Jonathan Carr on 05/24/2021

Mixed Conditions (May 24-28)

Discussion: Areas of high pressure continue to dominate our pattern. A high is currently tracking from just N of the Great Lakes towards the Atlantic Ocean (over Cape Cod area). This will start everyone out with onshore flow (over 60-degree water) for Monday. The high sun-angle will take us up to ab

  Jonathan Carr
The Heat is On (May 21-23)
Jonathan Carr on 05/21/2021

The Heat is On (May 21-23)

Discussion: High pressure continues to dominate the E US setup in a prolonged upper-level ridge pattern. We’re going to see high pressure retrograde off the Atlantic Ocean Friday and make it as far W as Missouri on Saturday (rare). This area of high pressure should then return back to the E into the

  Jonathan Carr
Warm Conditions (May 17-21)
Jonathan Carr on 05/16/2021

Warm Conditions (May 17-21)

Discussion: This entire week looks like a ridge building pattern for NJ and much of the east coast. The 250mb jet should be positioned just to our NE coming down from Canada. Therefore, the 250mb S flow of the jet will be over C US—forming the big E US ridge. At the lower levels this means high pres

  Jonathan Carr
Pretty…Pretty…Good (May 14-16)
Jonathan Carr on 05/14/2021

Pretty…Pretty…Good (May 14-16)

Discussion: Nothing noteworthy in the upper levels for this weekend. The main player will be an area of high pressure slowly tracking from Ohio, over the N Mid-Atlantic US, and out into the Atlantic Ocean. It’s a good time to revisit the physics of high pressure. In the N Hemisphere it’s an anti-cyc

  Jonathan Carr
Cool Mixed Conditions (May 8-9)
Jonathan Carr on 05/08/2021

Cool Mixed Conditions (May 8-9)

Discussion: We should remain in a cooler pattern with temperatures below-average for another week. The Mid-Atlantic US, and most of the EC, cannot escape the relentless progressive trough pattern. At the very least this keeps us cool but also unsettled with clouds and rain. It looks like some ridgin

  Jonathan Carr
Unsettled Week (May 3-7)
Jonathan Carr on 05/03/2021

Unsettled Week (May 3-7)

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay close over NJ for the next week or so. This should keep geopotential heights anomalies near-average outside of a weak system on Friday. That will pull down some lower heights temporarily for Friday into early Sat AM but then back to business by Saturday late-mor

  Jonathan Carr