Crappy at Times
Jonathan Carr on 10/24/2021

Crappy at Times

Discussion: Overnight lows should fall and then halt tonight (Sunday night) as S flow takes over. This could initially present some fog but otherwise should produce a milder feel for tomorrow (Monday). We’re going to see two areas of upper-level low pressure this week, both amplified by upper jet st

  Jonathan Carr
Cooler Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 10/22/2021

Cooler Conditions

Discussion: A mostly dry frontal passage came through overnight…a few sprinkles here and there. This has lowered temps and humidity some for today. Still a beautiful day today but tonight we’ll step down colder. The upper-level disturbance I’ve been tracking for today into tomorrow seems much drier

  Jonathan Carr
Fall is Back
Jonathan Carr on 10/19/2021

Fall is Back

Discussion: A rather boring upper level look this week. Most of the drivers are at the lower levels. High pressure is currently over ~SC producing NW for NJ. As the high slides E over the next few days, it will produce W flow for Wednesday and SW flow for Thursday. This should warm temps back up int

  Jonathan Carr
Big Changes Coming
Jonathan Carr on 10/15/2021

Big Changes Coming

Discussion: I apologize for being somewhat absent and distracted the last few weeks. I’ve been working on a very important presentation that I gave yesterday demonstrating the 4D weather visualization technology that my company has spearheaded me to develop. Yesterday, there were attendees from the

  Jonathan Carr
I’ve Seen Better
Jonathan Carr on 10/09/2021

I’ve Seen Better

Discussion: Upper-level ridging over E Canada/E US will continue to dominate the weather pattern likely through next weekend. That means a string of above-average temperatures and conditions I generally dislike this time of year. The kind of weather that’s perfect for early spring warmth but not as

  Jonathan Carr
Is October the New September?
Jonathan Carr on 10/04/2021

Is October the New September?

Discussion: It sure seems like it anymore. And the same goes for September feeling like August. In recent times, it seems like summer’s heat and humidity have bleed into early fall. The crisp feel will inevitably come back but it seems as if it should already be sustained by now. It seems like most,

  Jonathan Carr
Fall Weather Holds Serve
Jonathan Carr on 09/28/2021

Fall Weather Holds Serve

Discussion: The upper-level pattern this week features a trough centered just to our E (ULL over Maine/SE Canada) and a steep ridge just to our W in NC US/SC Canada. This will keep the upper-level flow out of the NW and W/NW for NJ. At the lower levels we’ll have high pressure just to our W providin

  Jonathan Carr
Seasonal Transition
Jonathan Carr on 09/20/2021

Seasonal Transition

Discussion: We have a few players shaping our conditions this week. At the upper-levels we have a ridge (still over E US) moving away to the E. This ridge should influence NJ with some warmer temps and humidity through about Wednesday. We’ll then have a trough move in for Thursday which should begin

  Jonathan Carr
Improving Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 09/16/2021

Improving Conditions

Discussion: Invest 96L is currently sitting between the US and Bermuda at Georgia latitude. Whether or not it organizes into a named system is another story. But for today and tomorrow, it will impact the Jersey shore with higher surf and enhanced rip currents. It will not pass close enough to bring

  Jonathan Carr
Summery Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 09/13/2021

Summery Conditions

Discussion: A prolonged series of ridging should establish over the E US over the next 10 days or so. This will keep temps slightly warmer than average with above-average humidity. We should see several thunderstorms chances in this period. Not seeing a relieving cold front until closer to next week

  Jonathan Carr
A True Early Taste of Fall
Jonathan Carr on 09/09/2021

A True Early Taste of Fall

Discussion: Despite what you might have read online, the rain and thunderstorms last night into today were associated with a typical slow moving cold front attached to a low tracking through Canada, and reinforced by weak low pressure sliding along the front today. They WERE NOT from Hurricane Larry

  Jonathan Carr
A Nice Stretch of Weather
Jonathan Carr on 09/07/2021

A Nice Stretch of Weather

Discussion: Tuesday should be another great day like Monday. Wednesday we’ll see humidity build a little and then rain and thunderstorms likely Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday AM (slow moving cold front). This front could bring flash flooding rainfall and severe thunderstorms. Thursday looks

  Jonathan Carr
Much Improvement!
Jonathan Carr on 09/02/2021

Much Improvement!

Discussion: Last night was just crazy. It rained like the Book of Genesis in NNJ/CNJ and the scariest NJ tornado imagery I’ve seen yet came out of SWNJ/WCNJ. SENJ was very lucky to not experience the funky tropical cyclone remnant energy that we’ve sort of gotten used to in the last few years. My th

  Jonathan Carr
Ida Remnants Approaching NJ
Jonathan Carr on 08/31/2021

Ida Remnants Approaching NJ

Discussion: Ida has absorbed into the approaching trough and developing front. It is now well on its way into extra-tropical transition which means it is now a cold core mid-latitude cyclone, with frontal boundaries developing, rather than a warm core tropical cyclone.We’ve dealt with a few tropical

  Jonathan Carr
Great Weather on the Horizon
Jonathan Carr on 08/30/2021

Great Weather on the Horizon

Discussion: Words cannot describe some of the imagery and hardship coming out of Louisiana after yesterday’s category 4 landfall. It hurts to think about. If I can help anyone in any way down there, please let me know. Out thoughts and positive vibes for healing and recovering are with you! Ida will

  Jonathan Carr
Tracking Ida’s Remnants for NJ
Jonathan Carr on 08/28/2021

Tracking Ida’s Remnants for NJ

Discussion: Ida is a major hurricane (now category 3) in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, where the water is warmest and the shear has reduced. It’s nothing but a favorable environment for further intensification, possibly into a category 4 prior to landfall. The primary steering mechanism for Ida

  Jonathan Carr
More Unsettled Muggy Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 08/26/2021

More Unsettled Muggy Conditions

Weekend Discussion: Our weekend NJ weather pattern will be governed mostly by upper-level ridging in the E US under an upper-jet stream far to the N of NJ. At the surface this means more 90s Friday but not as warm Saturday and Sunday given light onshore flow. Regardless of temps, the humidity is goi

  Jonathan Carr
Conditions to Improve
Jonathan Carr on 08/23/2021

Conditions to Improve

Discussion: That was some weekend. Henri’s primary winds missed NJ and instead hit coastal New England before moving through CT into NY State. New Jersey never saw the destructive winds. The surprise was rainfall amounts. I thought for sure that at least a few inches of rainfall was possible in the

  Jonathan Carr
Fringe Impact Only from Henri
Jonathan Carr on 08/21/2021

Fringe Impact Only from Henri

Discussion: Henri is a category 1 hurricane now at OBX latitude about 350 miles offshore. He will now take a slow and gradual turn to the N/NW towards Long Island and likely make landfall on Sunday as either a strong Tropical Storm or weak category 1 hurricane.The last 24 hours of model guidance hav

  Jonathan Carr
Henri to Impact New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 08/21/2021

Henri to Impact New Jersey

Discussion: Henri is currently at Savannah, GA latitude and about 74W longitude. He’s made the turn to the N and is now heading N/NW. I now expect him to turn a little more to the N/NE and parallel the US coast until about OBX latitude (a few hundred miles offshore).From the OBX latitude location, i

  Jonathan Carr
Henri Could Impact New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 08/19/2021

Henri Could Impact New Jersey

Discussion: Henri is currently a tropical storm near 30N 70W (between Bermuda and Florida – at Jacksonville, FL latitude). Henri is expected to turn to the N and follow the developing upper level ridge weakness in SE Canada on Friday. It’s likely he will be upgraded to hurricane status by Friday nig

  Jonathan Carr
Regarding Henri
Jonathan Carr on 08/18/2021

Regarding Henri

Discussion: We have two things to talk about, Fred’s remnants and Henri’s track. Fred’s remnants are currently moving from West Virginia into SW PA. They should continue tracking NW across CPA today and then into New England Thursday into Friday. New Jersey impacts should be far less than PA. For to

  Jonathan Carr
Stormy and Muggy
Jonathan Carr on 08/16/2021

Stormy and Muggy

Discussion: The cold front sure took its time Saturday PM. It wasn’t until closer to sunrise Sunday morning that dews finally dropped to the comfortable zone. And IMHO Sunday was a few degrees warmer in both temp and dew point temp that I was expecting. I was thinking a 79/59 type day, not a 83/63 t

  Jonathan Carr
Hot Stormy Start then Improvement.
Jonathan Carr on 08/12/2021

Hot Stormy Start then Improvement.

Weekend Discussion: This weekend overall is straightforward. We’re warm-sectored until a cold front moves through and then we’re beautiful under high pressure behind the cold front. What is extremely uncertain is the timing of the cold front. There is disagreement on model guidance and therefore mor

  Jonathan Carr