Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 12/14/2019

Dec 14: Wintry Impact Maps

Discussion: We’re now on the back side of the low that moved through last night through early this morning. Just an isolated chance of showers as we head into overnight hours. We should be cooler and drier on Sunday. Colder W/NW flow will then take temperatures down for Sunday night into Monday.Anot

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/12/2019

Unsettled Conditions (Dec 13-15)

Discussion: High pressure, tracking overhead, has brought us a colder Wednesday night and Thursday (today). Tonight should drop pretty good too until onshore flow develops tomorrow morning off the ocean from the SE. This should moderate most areas to between 40-50 on Friday as precipitation moves in

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/11/2019

Dec 11: The Next Storm Signals

Discussion: Our weak anafrontal rain-to-snow system has moved out and we’ll now be cold tonight through tomorrow. Moving forward I’m watching two specific storm signals. You may remember be talking about a December 15th storm signal and how the roller coaster of temperatures would likely produce som

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/10/2019

Dec 10: Snow Changeover Approaching

Discussion: Temperatures spiked very mild today as expected. They will drop between now and overnight hours which should change the precipitation type from rain to snow from NW to SE by morning.We have high pressure pushing the cold in from our NW primarily at the 700-925mb layers. That’s between ab

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/09/2019

Dec 9: Snow Map for Tues PM-Wed AM

Discussion: We’re now in the warm sector of the Great Lakes-tracking low. That’s why we are mild and wet today under the influence of S/SW flow. This will continue overnight and through most of Tuesday with on-and-off periods of rainfall and breezy/gusty winds. Upstream high pressure will then drive

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/09/2019

Dec 8: Midweek Snow Likely

Discussion: Departing high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will help pump and E US warm sector with a Great Lakes-tracking low. That’s going to keep the Mid-Atlantic mild and rainy for Monday-Tuesday with high temperatures pushing 60 at times. On Tuesday evening high pressure will track behind the st

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/06/2019

Volatile Conditions Detected

Discussion: Some flurries and snow showers were moving across NNJ earlier but looks like it calmed down a bit on radar. Should be an uneventful chilly night tonight (Thursday). High pressure should then track near Bermuda tomorrow (Friday) and provide light SW flow keeping it on the milder side. A c

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/03/2019

Dec 2: Coastal Snow Storm Update

Discussion: We’re about halfway through phase 3. There’s nothing left but the second half of the snow storm that should occur between now and about 2am. We’ve seen a lot of mesoscale banding today. The radar reflects such with a tiger stripped pattern. These are the linear segments of lifting (snowi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/02/2019

Dec 2: Coastal Snow Storm Arriving

Discussion: One final snow map tweak heading into phase 3 of this system. When we made our map yesterday afternoon there was little data to support higher snow totals further S and SE in New Jersey. Since then (last night and early this morning) model guidance has trended towards our gut suspicion o

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/01/2019

Dec 1: Coastal Snow Storm Incoming

Discussion: Phase 1 is about complete. The division between wintry and non-wintry precip went about as expected (somewhere near/along I-95). The wintry area verified colder than expected however. Didn’t think I’d see it snowing that hard in Giants Stadium and the sleet/freezing rain reports are nume

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 12/01/2019

December 2019 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how December 2019 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/30/2019

Nov 30: Wintry Storm Approaching

Discussion: Let’s break the 3 phases we’ve been discussing into the following timing expectations:Phase 1: Sunday Morning through Sunday afternoon. The warm front will arrive from the SW with precipitation after midnight tonight (Saturday night). I expect precip to be widespread through New Jersey b

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/29/2019

Nov 29: Coastal Wintry Storm a Go

Discussion: I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. It is now time to take the Sunday-Monday coastal storm setup seriously. We are well within the mid-range forecasting period with strong agreement on model guidance, a favorable pattern and matching live observations. As I’ve been doing in prio

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/27/2019

Nov 27: Thanksgiving Forecast

Discussion: Let’s first address tonight and Thanksgiving (tomorrow). A fairly organized low pressure system will tracking to our N (from W to E). It looks like it makes a run from the Great Lakes over N New York State and then ultimately over Maine while fluctuating between about 989mb and 995mb. Ne

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/26/2019

Nov 26: Coastal Winter Storm Becoming Likely

Discussion: I want to real quick talk about the Thanksgiving period. Right now we’re in the developing warm sector ahead of the lakes-tracking disturbance that should bring nuisance rain only between Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The bigger story with this system are the winds. It’s a strong

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/25/2019

Nov 25: Strong Storm Signal for Next Week

Discussion: The purpose of this article is not to scare anyone to the store for eggs, milk and bread almost a week in-advance of a snowstorm. But rather to inform everyone of a strongly-modeled storm signal, with winter potential, for this coming Saturday night through Monday morning (Nov 30-Dec 2).

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/25/2019

Mild Start. Cold Finish (Nov 25-29)

Discussion: It looks like we’ll get a short break this week from the below-average temperatures that we’ve gotten used to. Monday through Wednesday looks relatively mild with highs well into the 50s for many areas and in some cases flirting with 60. An E US ridge will be setting up in the upper leve

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/21/2019

Unsettled Conditions (Nov 22-24)

Discussion: A low pressure system will track through the Great Lakes into SE Canada between tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday morning. From this system NJ will first see a warm front move through this evening (Thursday), from SW to NE, followed by a Friday morning warm sector and ultimately a Friday af

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/20/2019

Nov 20: Watching Saturday Night

Discussion: Not much to write home about over the next few days. A warm front should move through from SW to NE Thursday PM. Therefore we’ll have milder and more humid air moving into a colder departing air mass with lower dew points. This sounds like a synoptic recipe for fog in my opinion. With th

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/17/2019

Mixed Conditions (Nov 18-22)

Discussion: Let’s talk about tonight real quick. The rainfall from the coastal low so far has been confined to mostly along and SE of the turnpike in the form of on-and-off drizzle/mist. As I’ve been saying leading up to this event the rainfall is the least of my concerns. Winds have been gusting be

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/17/2019

Nov 16: Coastal Storm Approaching

Discussion: The coastal storm is now rapidly developing off the SE US. You can see it here on satellite imagery a few hundred miles east of the GA/SC border: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=dataThe high is currently over upstate New York a

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/15/2019

Nov 15: Coastal Storm Developing

Discussion: Our coastal storm is currently developing off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. It should remain offshore and track to about OBX latitude before stalling. High pressure over the NE US will hold it there for a little and then it will continue it’s track to the NE with the low cente

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/14/2019

Coastal Concerns (Nov 15-17)

Discussion: The upper-level cut-off low that was stalled over the Baja Peninsula is tracking across the S US from W to E. It will merge with a northern stream shortwave and produce a strong synoptic rainstorm for the SE US and S Mid-Atlantic US. Most rainfall should just miss NJ to the SE aside from

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 11/12/2019

Nov 12: Arctic Cold has Arrived

Discussion: Our Arctic frontal boundary has pushed through as expected and we’re now under the influence of an air mass that originated over the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic high that dropped out of Canada over ~North Dakota has opened the gates, with it’s front-side anti-cyclonic flow for this cold to

  Jonathan Carr