Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 05/25/2020

Warmer Conditions Expected (May 26-29)

Discussion: Happy Memorial Day everyone! A moment of silence, appreciation and gratitude to those who have fallen to protect our amazing way of life… The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ through at least Friday. This will correlate with above-average 500mb geopotential height anomalies for the E

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/22/2020

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

Discussion: We currently have an upper level low over KY/TN weakening as it is colliding with strong ridging over SE Canada/NE US. It if fizzled out completely we would not have a worry about nuisance precipitation Friday-Saturday. But it does look to pass over NJ as a much weaker upper level distur

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/17/2020

Unsettled Conditions (May 18-22)

Discussion: Rough ocean conditions should have the headline this week despite much better conditions inland and away from water. The upper jet should stay way to the N of NJ this week. Normally this would produce a heat wave sea of ridging however we have a closed-off upper-level low and tropical cy

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/14/2020

The Warm Season Begins (May 15-17)

Discussion: Some passing isolated showers later today/tonight but no big deal. The warm season has begun! The weekend looks pretty good Friday through Sunday AM however there is lots to discuss. Upper-level 250mb analysis indicates the jet staying to the N of NJ with the exception of next Tuesday-Th

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/11/2020

The Good Stuff is Coming (May 11-15)

Discussion: The upper-jet is now over NJ and will eventually move N of NJ by Thursday with a correlating air mass of above-average 500mb geopotential height anomalies (ridging) over NJ. That warmer upper-level pattern then looks to sustain for the foreseeable future. At the surface we have some lift

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/07/2020

Snow? (May 8-10)

Discussion: Upper-level analysis indicates the jet staying S of NJ this weekend in the continued-E US trough pattern with abnormally low 500mb geopotential height anomalies. If this was winter the snow lovers would be excited. But it’s not. The sun angle is approaching annular peak (June) and climat

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/03/2020

Cool and Unsettled (May 4-8)

Discussion: I’ve seen happier outlooks for the Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US before. 250mb and 500mb analysis indicates the upper-jet staying over or S of NJ with prolonged upper-level troughing as far as I can comfortably see. This means below-average temperatures and generally unsettled conditions

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/03/2020

May 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of May 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 05/01/2020

Conditions Improve (May 1-3)

Discussion: Low pressure has passed through and will now track towards the Maine/SE Canada region. We’re left on the back-side of cyclonic flow with enough nearby lifting, from the departing low, to spark a few showers and even t-storms today. Otherwise conditions are overall improving today and esp

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/29/2020

April 29: Heavy Rain & Strong Wind Approaching

Discussion: Another weather system featuring powerful upper-level dynamics should impact New Jersey tonight through Friday morning. Let’s break it down from top to bottom. 250mb jet analysis indicates a strong southerly jet streak for the E US coast on Thursday (120-130kts about 33k feet up). 500mb

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/26/2020

Unsettled Conditions (April 27-May 1)

Discussion: There will be no major synoptic storms this week despite the active and meridional look to the upper-level jet and 500mb height anomalies. At the surface we currently (Sunday) have a slow moving and weak low pressure system tracking overhead towards the ocean. This should keep Sunday and

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/23/2020

Unsettled Conditions (April 24-26)

Discussion: The upper-level jet should stay to the S of NJ this weekend with a trough of below-average geopotential height anomalies overhead. This should keep NJ and surrounding areas very unsettled with colder air aloft over a milder surface temperature profile. Two synoptic lows should transfer r

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/19/2020

Mixed Conditions (April 20-24)

Discussion: A very active pattern is likely for the next week or so. The upper-levels should see multiple shortwaves and troughs for the Mid-Atlantic US. At the surface the first disturbance is Monday. A low will eject near OBX and track just SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. This produces fringe rain ch

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/17/2020

Unsettled Start. Mild Finish (April 17-19)

Discussion: Not much to speak of in the upper levels. A zonal jet pattern overhead with slightly negative geopotential height anomalies. We have a weak disturbance tracking through the N Mid-Atlantic US. It should move in tonight (Friday) and clear out by noon tomorrow (Saturday). Cold rain for most

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/12/2020

Rough Start (April 13-17)

Discussion: This week is all about the damaging wind potential on Monday. After that it’s boring. Slightly cooler than we’d all like for this time of year but uneventful as the below daily forecast indicates. So let’s talk about Monday. Right now (Sunday evening) low pressure is near Arkansas and wi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/09/2020

Mixed Conditions (April 10-12)

Discussion: Upper-level geopotential height anomalies look low for as long as I can comfortably see (out to about April 19 or so). Just one transient period of positive anomalies this Sunday-Monday. We have a well-organized system tracking through New England today. That will drag a cold front throu

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/05/2020

Mild Spring Conditions (April 6-10)

Discussion: The upper-jet looks to stay near/overhead of NJ this week in a zonal configuration. The jet will slowly build intensity and likely flex into a decent streak by Thursday-Friday. 500mb geopotential height anomalies should be near-average for the start of the week but drop negative by Thurs

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/02/2020

Turning Milder (April 3-5)

Discussion: The upper jet is split with the primary streak to our S and a weaker dissolving streak to our N. The N part is powered by the backside (W side) of the departing upper-level low and front side (E side) of an approaching weak ridge. This upper-level N flow correlates with the backside (W s

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 04/02/2020

April 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of April 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data ar

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/30/2020

Cooler Conditions (March 31-April 3)

Discussion: The upper-jet should remain mostly zonal through Wednesday before dipping S of NJ Thursday into Friday. After that, high pressure backs in from the NE and decently splits the jet to our N and S. Nothing exciting to speak of from 500mb heights point of view. A small upper-level low, hard

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/27/2020

Unsettled Conditions (March 27-29)

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ this weekend before sinking over/just S of NJ by mid next week. 500mb height anomalies should be positive for this weekend correlating with the jet-formed ridge before lowering for next week. A blocking signal over Greenland might take us into the

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/22/2020

Raw Start. Mild Finish (March 23-27)

Discussion: For the most part we’ll see a zonal jet pattern overhead this week before pushing a little to our N by the weekend. 500mb geopotential heights should remain elevated aside from two shortwaves Monday and Wednesday with very little upper-level disturbance. At the surface these shortwaves w

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/19/2020

Mild Start. Cooler Finish (March 20-22)

Discussion: The upper-level jet should push to the N of NJ on Friday as 500mb ridging flexes. The jet should then sink to the S of NJ for the rest of the weekend as geopotential heights relax but still remain slightly positive. At the surface this means a warm March day for Friday, showers and possi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 03/13/2020

Cool and Dry (March 13-15)

Discussion: A strong zonal upper-level jet will dominate the 250mb space over NJ this weekend. 500mb geopotential height anomalies will remain positive with a weak upper-level trough moving through SE Canada. There will be a strong surface low under that SE Canadian trough wrapped up into a nice mid

  Jonathan Carr