Light Snow Event Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 01/19/2022

Light Snow Event Approaching

Discussion: A light snow event is approaching New Jersey and should impact the Thursday AM commute. First, we will see a mild day today (Wednesday) with afternoon high temperatures reaching well into the 40s statewide.A weak wave of energy will then move through NJ from W/SW to E/SE perpendicular to

  Jonathan Carr
Watching Two Snow Events
Jonathan Carr on 01/18/2022

Watching Two Snow Events

Discussion: Two snow events are on the table this week, one for Thursday and another for Saturday. Let’s break them down.Thursday looks like a generally light event. After a milder day in the 40s (Wednesday), rain should begin approaching late Wednesday night and spread into much of New Jersey by ea

  Jonathan Carr
Wintry Pattern Continues
Jonathan Carr on 01/17/2022

Wintry Pattern Continues

Discussion: Just wanted to thank you all for the support and kind words! The last few articles leading into the storm were actually picked up and aggregated by Google News. I look forward to more responsible discussion about weather safety, delivering the best forecasts possible, and having a little

  Jonathan Carr
Strong Storm Approaching New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 01/16/2022

Strong Storm Approaching New Jersey

Discussion: Earlier this week, a short wave dropped into the N US and dove to Texas to form a closed-off upper-level low (ULL). This ULL drifted E a bit, through the SE US, before interacting with another upper wave, that later dove into the N US, and turned the ULL up the E US coast. Since the uppe

  Jonathan Carr
Strong New Jersey Storm Expected
Jonathan Carr on 01/15/2022

Strong New Jersey Storm Expected

Discussion: This upcoming Sunday PM-Monday AM event is not a pure snowstorm. It will contain some wintry aspects to it (upfront snow…possibly ending as snow for some) but the meat and potatoes of it are a strong synoptic-scale rain and wind storm IMO. We will have a deepening surface low (strong upp

  Jonathan Carr
Strong Storm Developing for New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 01/14/2022

Strong Storm Developing for New Jersey

Discussion: We’re still looking at a cold weekend. Current N/NW flow behind the departing ocean storm will pull Arctic air back over NJ tonight through early Sunday morning. It looks like no one will make it above freezing on Saturday for a high temperature. Some locations might struggle to break ou

  Jonathan Carr
Strong Storm to Impact New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 01/13/2022

Strong Storm to Impact New Jersey

Discussion: A strong coastal low will be just offshore tomorrow (Friday). While nearly all model guidance suggests the precip to stay about 20-50 miles offshore, I just want to mention a small wildcard possibility of those precip bands making it further W into NJ. The low might be sub-980mb which co

  Jonathan Carr
Tracking the Sunday-Monday Storm Signal
Jonathan Carr on 01/12/2022

Tracking the Sunday-Monday Storm Signal

Discussion: The pattern, more favorable for winter storm development, is still expected to begin this Friday. I’m still only focused on the first few systems this Friday and Sunday-Monday but a very active pattern will continue afterwards to close out January and likely start February. The Pacific O

  Jonathan Carr
Cold Week. Wintry Pattern Emerges.
Jonathan Carr on 01/09/2022

Cold Week. Wintry Pattern Emerges.

Discussion: Much of the state eventually made it above freezing today with the warm front passage and warm sector. NWNJ elevations saw the worst of the freezing rain, as expected, and the precipitation will soon come to an end from W to E (by this evening). A cold front will then push through late-

  Jonathan Carr
Ice Approaching NNJ/NWNJ
Jonathan Carr on 01/08/2022

Ice Approaching NNJ/NWNJ

Discussion: Icy conditions are possible NW of the NJTP/I-95 corridor Sunday morning…after a cold overnight tonight directly under high pressure. A low pressure system pretty far N in Canada will team up with return flow behind the departing high and first force a warm front over NJ. It’s the typical

  Jonathan Carr
Wintry Pattern Setting In
Jonathan Carr on 01/08/2022

Wintry Pattern Setting In

Discussion: Real quick, tonight looks to remain cold, dry, and breezy/gusty out of the W/NW. Expect temperatures to bottom out in the teens/20s tomorrow (Saturday morning) just before sunrise. A high is approaching. We have the colder front-side flow of it tonight and then calmer conditions tomorrow

  Jonathan Carr
Snowstorm Approaching New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 01/06/2022

Snowstorm Approaching New Jersey

Discussion: Our snowstorm is approaching New Jersey and will soon be here. As we’ve always been advertising, this is a quick mover with no blocking to slow it down. However, we have some powerful upper and mid-level dynamics that should help pack a punch in the quick hit.Beneath the powerful 250mb j

  Jonathan Carr
Snow Targeting CNJ/SNJ Friday
Jonathan Carr on 01/05/2022

Snow Targeting CNJ/SNJ Friday

Discussion: The data continues to point towards a significant snow storm in New Jersey SE of the NJTP/I-95 corridor. Even though this system is still capable of delivering more of a widespread/statewide snowfall, amounts NW of the corridor look light. The area right over 95…still some uncertainty bu

  Jonathan Carr
Another Snowstorm Detected
Jonathan Carr on 01/04/2022

Another Snowstorm Detected

Discussion: I’ve taken the KABOOM profile pic (white circle) down, For many new faces, KABOOM is the term I like to use when 12 inches of snow happen in any part of NJ. Sometimes it’s confined to either NNJ, CNJ, or SNJ. Sometimes it affects the entire state. Either way, all of us snow fans (myself

  Jonathan Carr
Southern NJ Digs Out. Watching Friday.
Jonathan Carr on 01/04/2022

Southern NJ Digs Out. Watching Friday.

Discussion: As today’s SNJ system departs further into the Atlantic Ocean, another system is moving onshore in the NW US off the Pacific. Over the next 3 days, this energy should travel across the US and pick up energy from a southern branch in the SE US. This should produce another coastal low thro

  Jonathan Carr
Winter Storm Approaching Southern and Central New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 01/02/2022

Winter Storm Approaching Southern and Central New Jersey

Discussion: To review, our mild and rainy period is coming to an end today/tonight. The low-pressure series that brought us our rain these last few days is pulling away and will drop temperatures overnight tonight with back-side cyclonic flow out of the N. That’s how we are going to go from unseason

  Jonathan Carr
Monday SNJ Snow Chances Increasing
Jonathan Carr on 01/02/2022

Monday SNJ Snow Chances Increasing

Discussion: I wanted to wait until the 00Z NAM run tonight (just ran) before putting out today’s article. And I’m glad I did.The GFS has always led the way with this system as the most aggressive (snowiest outcome) model. Last night and this morning, the GFS was sort of an outlier…the only model lef

  Jonathan Carr
Monday Snow Update
Jonathan Carr on 12/31/2021

Monday Snow Update

Discussion: As far as this weekend goes, we still look mild and rainy in New Jersey…tonight (Friday night – New Years Eve) through Sunday night. For Saturday and Sunday, afternoon temps should range from lower-50s to upper-50s from NWNJ elevations to SENJ coasts.Expect a few flat lows to move throug

  Jonathan Carr
Still Watching Monday for Snow
Jonathan Carr on 12/31/2021

Still Watching Monday for Snow

Discussion: The chances for snow in New Jersey on Monday continue to increase. I’ve been interested in this synoptic signal for some time now, specifically the modeled teleconnections (NAO, AO, and PNA). The NAO and AO are modeled to sharply transition from negative to positive on Jan 3-4 and the PN

  Jonathan Carr
Mild/Wet Rest of the Week. Watching Monday.
Jonathan Carr on 12/28/2021

Mild/Wet Rest of the Week. Watching Monday.

Discussion: Conditions should remain mundane (for December) through this weekend. Above-average temperatures and wet at times. 250mb jet analysis indicates a very zonal patten across the US meaning flat and lateral. This allows some weak surface lows to track W to E generating precipitation. But wit

  Jonathan Carr
A Mild, Possibly Wet, Christmas
Jonathan Carr on 12/23/2021

A Mild, Possibly Wet, Christmas

Discussion: A zonal upper-level pattern should fluctuate N and S of NJ over the next week or so as heights respond appropriately with transient troughs and ridges. At the surface this means the volatile conditions should continue. A few days of mild conditions, a few days of cold conditions, wash, r

  Jonathan Carr
Good for Travel
Jonathan Carr on 12/20/2021

Good for Travel

Discussion: This week we’ll have fairly quiet conditions which is good news for travel-related interests (through Friday at least) but not so great for those looking for a White Christmas. Today we’re still cold in the wake of the weekend cold front. Tuesday-Wednesday we have two waves phasing which

  Jonathan Carr
Unsettled Conditions
Jonathan Carr on 12/16/2021

Unsettled Conditions

Discussion: Temperatures soared into the 60s today (Thursday) as expected in the warm sector (after yesterday’s warm front). A cold front will push through tonight, but it looks mostly dry. Also, we’re not talking any serious drops in temperatures just no more days like today. The cold front should

  Jonathan Carr
Mild Conditions Continue
Jonathan Carr on 12/13/2021

Mild Conditions Continue

Discussion: It’s not exactly go to the beach weather but temperatures are indeed running above average. Since it’s December, that’s still kind of cold but nowhere near what’s needed to support snow. High pressure under a developing, highly anomalous upper-level ridge, should keep NJ dry for most of

  Jonathan Carr