Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 02/14/2020

Colder Conditions Moderate (Feb 14-16)

Discussion: A positive-tilted and progressive trough is currently swinging through the region and should give way to the front side of a ridge with upper-level NW flow. This is responsible for bringing the colder conditions that started last night (Thursday) and should last through early Sunday morn

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/10/2020

Unsettled Start Cold Finish (Feb 10-14)

Discussion: Real quick, some precipitation is moving through tonight. Extreme NNJ could see some wintry precipitation type from this. It should move out by tomorrow morning. E US ridging and a Bermuda high should keep temperatures above average through Wednesday. A progressive positive-tilted trough

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/07/2020

Mild and Stormy to Colder and Unsettled (Feb 7-9)

Discussion: The next and more significant precipitation slug moves through between tonight and about 6am tomorrow morning. SENJ should receive more rainfall than NWNJ but everyone’s on the hook for widespread periods of moderate, sometimes heavy, rain overnight tonight. Precipitation might then shut

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/05/2020

Feb 5: NNJ Ice Storm Update

Discussion: It’s been a somewhat colder day than the past few. The boundary has been pulled southward over NNJ from the back-side cyclonic flow of the weak wave that just departed. NNJ is already down into the 30s and some of the precip ended with a wintry mix today. NENJ, CNJ and SNJ remain near-40

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/04/2020

Feb 4: Ice Storm Impact Maps

Discussion: There’s no need to cover the overall global polar and Pacific patterns that are producing an unfavorable environment for winter storm development. Now it’s all about the thread-the-needle wintry events that can still occur in an unfavorable winter pattern.We currently have a flat boundar

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/04/2020

February 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of February 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/03/2020

Feb 3: Ice Storm Detected for NNJ

Discussion: While the overall Polar and Pacific weather patterns, including key teleconnections and oscillations, remain generally unfavorable for winter weather in New Jersey, we do have a few thread the needle events to watch this week. We’re basically going to have a frontal boundary fluctuating

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 02/02/2020

Mild and Wet for Most (Feb 3-7)

Discussion: In the upper-levels, anomalous ridging should dominate the pattern for the next 10 days. In some cases the ridging retrogrades W enough to pull some troughing down from SE Canada over our area. At the surface this means a very active pattern with a decent amount of rainfall this week. Fo

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/30/2020

Super Bowl Weekend Outlook (Jan 31-Feb 2)

Discussion: It’s time to kill the weekend possibility of a larger snow storm. It was dead after last night’s model guidance, but I wanted to compare today’s 12z model suite to live observations to be sure. It was a strong signal from day 9 down to day 4 but has in-fact dropped off. The northern stre

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/29/2020

Jan 29: Still Watching the Weekend

Discussion: I really wanted to have some sort of closure on whether or not the weekend system is a go or not. I thought for sure the flight recon and proper land sampling would push the needle one way or the other (complete miss or hit) but unfortunately it split the difference with a solution that

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/28/2020

Jan 27: Still Watching the Weekend Storm

Discussion: We’re likely beyond the point of if there’s going to be a synoptic storm off the east coast this weekend. The signal has been well-advertised on long-range model guidance with consistency. A Miller-A low should form in the Gulf of Mexico, cross somewhere over the SE US and depart into th

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/26/2020

Watching the Weekend (Jan 27-31)

Discussion: Most are focused on this weekend’s winter storm potential. Let’s get the week ahead out of the way first. Upper-level height anomalies should remain negative through most of this week. This indicates colder air aloft with general flow out of the colder quadrant (between W and N). We star

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/24/2020

Jan 24: Rainstorm Approaching

Discussion: Our Upper-Level Low (ULL) is currently centered over S Missouri and should track just to our NW (over the SE Great Lakes) between now and Sunday night. The primary surface low will remain stacked under the ULL over the lakes but a secondary surface low will try to form in the area of gre

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/23/2020

Unsettled Conditions (Jan 24-26)

Discussion: Conditions should remain tranquil and milder for Friday. An Upper-Level Low (ULL) will then barrel across the NE US this weekend tracking near the Appalachian Mountain range. A surface low will correlate and wobble through somewhere near/over NJ on Saturday and this will be the rain-make

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/21/2020

Jan 21: Weekend System looks Warm for Most

Discussion: The strong area of high pressure responsible for the cold this week will ultimately be responsible for the moderation in temperature between Thursday and Saturday night. The front side of the high’s anti-cyclonic flow brought cold from the N and the back side (once it tracks E of NJ long

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/19/2020

Colder Conditions (Jan 20-24)

Discussion: My family is feeling much better as we’re almost fully-recovered from the flu. Thanks again for the well-wishes from everyone. You are all amazing! Tonight temperatures will drop well-below freezing statewide. Breezy-to-gusty NW winds should gradually subside by daybreak but could be res

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/17/2020

Jan 17: Winter Storm Update

Discussion: I’m feeling a little better today but my wife and daughter are in the worst stage of the flu. I’m about 2 days ahead of them regarding symptoms and timing. Thank you so much for your thoughtful expressions and well wishes yesterday! They mean a lot and we are grateful for such an awesome

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/16/2020

Jan 16: Initial Map for Saturday

Discussion: Today I tested positive for the flu (infuenza A strain) and so did my 5-month old daughter. It’s been a very bad week and I apologize for seeming to be MIA. I’ve been trying to rest and hydrate as much as possible but other aspects of my life have simply suffered. As soon as I post this

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/14/2020

Jan 14: Early Thoughts on Weekend Snow

Discussion: Our weekend winter storm system has trended warmer since yesterday. The main reason? The upper-level low associated with the trough that will be swinging in is now modeled stronger. This propagates down to the surface by intensifying the primary surface low that will initially track near

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/13/2020

Jan 13: Winter Storm Detected

Discussion: On Friday morning low pressure will form somewhere in the Wyoming area and track eastward towards the E US. This low will encounter a strong (1040mb+) blocking surface high over SE Canada/extreme N Maine. This high will do two things. First, it will pump cold air into the surface of the

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/12/2020

Mild Start Cold Finish (Jan 13-17)

Discussion: We are through with the freakishly warm January conditions after today. Anomalously high ridging will continue over the E US this week but fade. That means that Mondy through Thursday daytime hours will still be above-average in temperature but not like the past few days. We’re talking 4

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/10/2020

Warm for Winter (Jan 10-12)

Discussion: The upper jet will be WAY to the N of NJ this weekend…like up in SE Canada. This will shape a highly anomalous ridge over the E US through Sunday. A large area of high pressure will set up over Bermuda and pump the E US with warmth and moisture—something we usually see in summertime. At

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/07/2020

Jan 7: Snowfall Approaching

Discussion: Our system has trended towards an expanded field of snowfall. It hasn’t trended towards more snow than yesterday’s expectation just further N into New Jersey. There is going to be a sharp cutoff of precipitation on the N/NW side of this light system. If you are in NNJ, especially NWNJ, y

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 01/06/2020

Jan 6: Set the Alarms

Discussion: A very weak disturbance will form overnight tonight in the Tennessee Valley and track through the Delmarva Peninsula area by early Wednesday morning. This should deliver a period of rain-to-snow across parts of CNJ/SNJ between about 5pm and 10pm Tuesday night (tomorrow night). There will

  Jonathan Carr