Clear but Cold (March 5-7)
Jonathan Carr on 03/04/2021

Clear but Cold (March 5-7)

Discussion: The backside of a trough over the NE US will feed our area with colder NW flow at the upper levels from now (Thursday) through most of the weekend until a narrow positive-axis trough swings through between Sunday and Monday. Most of this period looks dry aside from any nuisance showers o

  Jonathan Carr
Mixed Conditions (March 1-5)
Jonathan Carr on 02/28/2021

Mixed Conditions (March 1-5)

Discussion: We should stay cold and rainy tonight into tomorrow morning as our weak but prolonged disturbance moves through. Tomorrow (Monday) winds should pick up out of the W/NW after late-AM clearing and persist into some of Tuesday. Peak wind gusts should occur during Monday PM hours. Gusts of 4

  Jonathan Carr
Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)
Jonathan Carr on 02/26/2021

Milder and Unsettled (Feb 26-28)

Discussion: An area of high pressure is moving through from W to E. It brought us a cold Thursday night but will now moderate temperatures with it’s departing return flow. The ocean is running 38-39F but the sun should take most to the mid-40s, possibly milder today (Friday). This should keep the lo

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 21: Light Snow Event approaching NNJ
Jonathan Carr on 02/21/2021

Feb 21: Light Snow Event approaching NNJ

Discussion: Tonight should be another cold one. Nothing crazy record breaking but lows dropping below freezing statewide (into 20s for much of NJ). The high pressure, that drove down the decaying Arctic air mass over NJ this weekend, will pass overhead tonight into the Atlantic Ocean. Instead of col

  Jonathan Carr
Cold Conditions (Feb 19-21)
Jonathan Carr on 02/19/2021

Cold Conditions (Feb 19-21)

Discussion: It just occurred to me that I haven’t released a fixed weekly product (Mon-Fri Outlook or Weekend Outlook) since late-January. February’s weather, so far, warranted daily wintry storm articles for the incredibly active winter pattern we’ve been in since about Jan 31. It’s nice to get bac

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 17: Winter Storm Update
Jonathan Carr on 02/17/2021

Feb 17: Winter Storm Update

Discussion: The approaching winter storm is anything but a “start and end as snow” event. It’s an ugly mess of precipitation types including snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain falling on a volatile surface line of freezing.The low should be weak (1000mb+) with a track across the SE US overni

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 16: Winter Storm Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 02/16/2021

Feb 16: Winter Storm Approaching

Discussion: The trend on most data over the last 24 hours has been for a colder solution Thursday-Friday. More like the solution I was thinking yesterday (what the GFS/Euro was advertising). The reason for the data changing is that the low is weaker and more of a flat wave that ejects out to sea, ra

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 15: Wintry Weather Update
Jonathan Carr on 02/15/2021

Feb 15: Wintry Weather Update

Discussion: Precipitation so far today has been very isolated and drizzly with most areas still dry as of now. Ultra-short-range model guidance and live obs indicate similar conditions holding until about 11PM tonight. From 11PM into Tuesday morning, precipitation should break out and intensify—ulti

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 14: Another Ice Storm Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 02/14/2021

Feb 14: Another Ice Storm Approaching

Discussion: Another ice storm is approaching and this one looks more potent. Where the recent one hit mostly 95 and SE, this one is targeting 95 and NW. There’s not much to say. The atmosphere is warm over New Jersey at the low-mid levels and cold at the surface, especially with the existing region-

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 12: Ice Storm Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 02/12/2021

Feb 12: Ice Storm Approaching

Discussion: A very strung-out wave of energy, focused on a weak and unorganized area of low pressure, will impact NJ with precipitation between Saturday morning and noon on Sunday. The weak low will eject into the Atlantic Ocean near OBX and track just offshore of NJ before moving away to the E. The

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 11: Ice Storm(s) Detected
Jonathan Carr on 02/11/2021

Feb 11: Ice Storm(s) Detected

Discussion: The South Jersey Express is through. Looks like it left 1-3 across CNJ and some parts of NNJ and 3-6 across SNJ. It fell overnight and fluffy out of the colder air aloft but compacted into a wetter accumulation today via daylight and above freezing temps, especially for S areas. The seco

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 10: Winter Storm Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 02/10/2021

Feb 10: Winter Storm Approaching

Discussion: Most model guidance, that specializes in short-range solutions, like the RGEM/NAM/etc. have suggested a slightly more amplified shortwave and a little less suppression influence from the polar vortex energy just to our N.This means that the precipitation shield from this system will targ

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 9: South Jersey Express
Jonathan Carr on 02/09/2021

Feb 9: South Jersey Express

Discussion: The light North Jersey Grazer event concluded earlier today. Overall, not a big deal especially after last week’s snowfall. As expected, the extreme NNJ elevations did best with amounts gradually tapering off near I-80/I-70 as you move from extreme NNJ to lower elevations of NNJ.We now t

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 8: More Snow
Jonathan Carr on 02/08/2021

Feb 8: More Snow

Discussion: There are seriously 5-6 winter storm signals over the next 12 days or so. Most appear to be light-to-significant with maybe a significant-to-major around Valentines Day. Let’s focus on the two immediate signals this week. Gonna have to start nicknaming them. We’ll call tonight into tomor

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 7: Storm Recap + Next Wintry Signal
Jonathan Carr on 02/08/2021

Feb 7: Storm Recap + Next Wintry Signal

Storm Recap: Radiational cooling allowed last night’s low temperatures to dip below freezing across parts of SENJ. This seemed a little surprising but ended up not mattering. The low’s position and track provided warmer flow that rocked counterclockwise from S to NE between about 4am this morning an

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 6: Winter Storm Approaching New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 02/06/2021

Feb 6: Winter Storm Approaching New Jersey

Discussion: The general trends since yesterday have been a slightly more expansive jackpot region to the NW (still misses NWNJ directly) which brings a little more mixing/rain concerns for SENJ to start the event. The snow is looking very wet and heavy which should allow compaction and slight meltin

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 5: Winter Storm Targeting New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 02/05/2021

Feb 5: Winter Storm Targeting New Jersey

Discussion: The upper pattern data is gaining confidence in the N branch digging and hanging back a little, allowing the S branch to catch up and take the upper-level trough axis to near-neutral. East coast heights respond higher and take the S branch in for a NJ snow event. The N branch does not ph

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 4: Another Winter Storm Detected
Jonathan Carr on 02/04/2021

Feb 4: Another Winter Storm Detected

Discussion: Real quick, we still expect a weak disturbance moving through Friday. It seems nuisance at this point with only trace/light accumulations for NWNJ elevations. Maybe non-accumulating snow as far SE as 95. It will be out of here by Friday night and set up a cold weekend behind it, ahead of

  Jonathan Carr
A Historical Snowstorm for New Jersey
Jonathan Carr on 02/03/2021

A Historical Snowstorm for New Jersey

Discussion: I think it is best to address the January 31-February 3, 2021 winter storm by the phases they were laid out in our initial Jan 30 forecast article:Phase I: The OnsetWe had a very cold air mass over the entire Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US heading into this system. If you can remember, last T

  Jonathan Carr
Feb 1: Winter Storm Update
Jonathan Carr on 02/02/2021

Feb 1: Winter Storm Update

Discussion: This is quite a winter storm. I’m upgrading NNJ to DUDE WHERE’S MY CAR? status. There’s no doubt in my mind that areas up that way exceed 24” of total storm snow accumulation in many spots. Some of you are almost there now. Most of CNJ is already a solid KABOOM. SNJ has had it’s expected

  Jonathan Carr
Jan 30: Major Winter Storm Approaching
Jonathan Carr on 01/30/2021

Jan 30: Major Winter Storm Approaching

Discussion: I’m going to break this winter storm into three phases of expectations.Phase I: Precipitation is currently approaching from the W. It’s just now getting into the Kentucky/Indiana/Ohio area and starting to build the initial snow thump expected for SNJ on Sunday. We’re looking at snow star

  Jonathan Carr
Jan 29: Snow Storm a GO!
Jonathan Carr on 01/29/2021

Jan 29: Snow Storm a GO!

Discussion: I’m sorry but no map yet. There is still significant uncertainty as to where the exact jackpot axis of snowfall is going to set up through NJ and ultimately where the NW cutoff and SE snow/rain line will be. I believe solutions are converging on the heaviest hit areas being the general I

  Jonathan Carr
Jan 28: Winter Storm Chances Increasing
Jonathan Carr on 01/29/2021

Jan 28: Winter Storm Chances Increasing

Discussion: The coastal storm that missed us to the S (bringing a swath of snow through parts of NC/VA) has departed well into the Atlantic Ocean. The backside of this cyclonic flow has pulled down more cold from the available Arctic air mass to the N. The system earlier in the week brought down the

  Jonathan Carr
Jan 26: Active Pattern Continues
Jonathan Carr on 01/26/2021

Jan 26: Active Pattern Continues

Discussion: The weak wave has just about passed. Just another small batch of light precip is expected to move through NNJ later tonight and taper off by early Wednesday AM hours. The primary low involved in the generally weak transfer of low pressure made it into W NY state instead of near ~Pittsbur

  Jonathan Carr