Weather NJ
Jonathan Carr on 08/10/2020

Unsettled Conditions (Aug 10-14)

Discussion: Again, not much to speak of in the upper-levels. The upper-jet should stay well N of NJ with any jet streaks weak and zonal. 500mb height analysis indicates we’ll be under a weak ridge centered over SE Canada/NE US/N Mid-Atlantic US. At this surface this will allow us to get hot and humi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/06/2020

Small Window of Relief (Aug 7-9)

Discussion: There’s nothing really worth discussing in the upper-levels. 250mb jet analysis and 500mb geopotential height analysis indicate no major features to worry about. The main player this weekend will be an area of high pressure tracking from the Great Lakes to the OBX region of the Atlantic

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/04/2020

Aug 4: Isaias is Here

Discussion: Hope everyone is staying safe out there! The eye of Isaias remnants is currently moving from N Delaware into SWNJ. This will calm the winds for SWNJ but NNJ and CNJ will remain under gusty E winds while SENJ now experiences S winds of the former eastern eye wall. As the center of circula

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/03/2020

Aug 3: Tropical Storm Isaias Approaching

Discussion: Isaias is a strong tropical storm located just E of the SC/GA coastal border. Sustained winds were last recorded at 70mph with higher gusts. It has a small chance for slight intensification during its last breath over warm water. Tonight Isaias should make landfall somewhere near Charles

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 08/03/2020

Aug 2: Isaias Impact on NJ

Discussion: Isaias is currently just off the east coast of central Florida as a strong tropical storm. Its steering will now be heavily influenced by the trough spanning from the Great Lakes down through the TN valley. The front of this trough will provide N/NE flow which should take Isaias over NJ

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/31/2020

July 31: Isaias Impact on East Coast

Discussion: Earlier this week we started talking about a potential tropical threat for the east coast around August 5 from what was Invest 92L. Today this system is a category 1 hurricane named Isaias heading into the Bahamas. From its current location, it should track fairly close to the E Florida

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/31/2020

Mixed Conditions Likely (July 31-Aug 2)

Discussion: This weekend we will have a small developing ridge over the E US which won’t fully establish until Sunday. Today our rain is pushing away to the SE of NJ and conditions should improve during PM hours tonight (Friday). Saturday looks like highs in the 80s with dew point temperatures in th

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/26/2020

A Hair of Relief (July 27-31)

Discussion: The upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ through Tuesday before dipping over NJ for Wednesday-Sunday. After Sunday it should return to the N of NJ for continued hazy, hot and humid ridging. So Monday and Tuesday should be more of the same (like this weekend) but then we are in for at lea

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/24/2020

Dry but Humid (July 24-26)

Discussion: Today will offer a small break in temperature but not so much humidity. This is associated with the tip of a narrow progressive trough swinging through the NE US. After that it’s back to upper-level ridging under (to the S of) the upper-jet. The Bermuda high has been parked and cranking

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/20/2020

Hang in there! (July 20-24)

Discussion: The upper jet should remain to the N of NJ this week as slightly above-average positive 500mb height anomalies persist over the Mid-Atlantic US. This should keep the surface hot with fluctuations of humidity intensity. The two strongest fluctuations in humidity should occur today and Thu

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/17/2020

We Bake (July 17-19)

Discussion: The upper jet should remain to the N of NJ until the bottom of a trough swings through next weekend. That leaves our region in a sea of ridging until then with the strongest flex point this coming Sunday-Monday. At the surface this means the most oppressive heat and humidity of this wave

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/13/2020

Some Relief. Then Back to HHH (July 13-17)

Discussion: A quick-moving narrow trough will move through between now (Monday) and Wednesday of this week. This should provide a small window of relief from heat and humidity in the Tuesday-Wednesday period as upper-level flow becomes NW and steers some cooler and dryer air towards NJ from Canada.

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/10/2020

Long-Range WeatherTrends360 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of July 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/10/2020

Conditions to Improve (July 10-12)

Discussion: A quick update on the “Tropical Storm” currently impacting NJ. Most conditions are going as expected regarding rain, wind and coastal flooding. I’m not sure we’ll reach tropical storm intensity but whatever. Either way this is much needed rainfall for areas heading towards a drought. Rig

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/09/2020

July 9: Coastal Storm Approaching

Discussion: Our coastal system is organizing just SE of Bald Head Island, NC (S OBX). The latest trends in model guidance indicate the system riding slightly further W up the back of the ridge which will be located over NE US/SE Canada at the time of peak impact. This would mean a surface low track

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/08/2020

July 8: Coastal Disturbance Detected

Discussion: A low pressure disturbance is currently forming on the coastal border of North and South Carolina. We’re not talking about a powerful system but organized enough to bring nuisance-to-mildly-disruptive conditions to the E US coast (OBX to NYC) between tonight and Friday. Model guidance ne

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/06/2020

The Heat is On (July 6-10)

Discussion: The upper-jet should remain positioned well to the N of NJ this week. 500mb height anomalies should stay slightly positive (ridging) for the E US. At the surface this spells out more warm, humid and slightly unsettled conditions…meaning mostly sun and clouds but certainly the chance for

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 07/03/2020

Warm and Humid (July 3-5)

Discussion: First of all, my family would like to wish everyone a Happy 4th of July! The upper-levels still indicate the steep progressive trough nearby to our E and NE. There’s also a correlating surface low to our E but all of this is about to slip away further to the E, allowing traditional ridgi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/29/2020

Summery Conditions (June 29-July 3)

Discussion: An area of low pressure off coastal New England will dominate the pattern through about Thursday of this week. This will provide periods of northerly flow to New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic US which will not allow record-type heat. We should still get warm though with plenty of humidity

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/26/2020

Warm, Humid and Slightly Unsettled (June 26-28)

Discussion: The upper-jet looks scrambled a bit (meridionally) over our region this weekend and next week. A few week and progressive troughs are continuing to break off the front of the overall ridge jet dip to our N and NE. Otherwise we would be under a very hot ridge. These positive-axis anomalie

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/22/2020

Hot Start (June 22-26)

Discussion: The upper-jet is pretty far N of NJ. I don’t need to tell you that the surface warm front is through. It should stay this way through Wednesday with NJ firmly planted in a warm sector. Sometime in the ~Wednesday period a cold front should push through as a dry disintegrating precipitatio

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/18/2020

Warm and Unsettled (June 19-21)

Discussion: The upper-level low that broke off of last week’s trough has been churning over the interior S Mid-Atlantic/SE US for most of this week as expected. The ridge over SE Canada and NE US, however, has been obliterating the ULL and it is now close to fizzling out completely. It will likely t

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/11/2020

Conditions Improve (June 12-14)

Discussion: We’ve got an active upper-jet pattern in place for the next week or so. Cristobal’s remnants have formed a post-tropical cyclone in E Canada with a frontal boundary attached to it’s S. This frontal boundary is what currently moved through NJ today bringing showers and thunderstorms. Behi

  Jonathan Carr
Jonathan Carr on 06/08/2020

Pleasant Start. Humidity Returns (June 8-12)

Discussion: The upper jet should stay to the N of NJ this week in a sea of ridging. The first part of this week features NW flow on the front of the ridge and the last-half, SW flow from the back-side of the ridge. By this weekend it looks like the upper-jet will be pushed S over NJ in a trough form

  Jonathan Carr